Dhaka, the bustling capital and largest city of Bangladesh, holds the impressive titles of the 9th largest city worldwide and the 7th most densely populated urban center on the globe. Nestled within the Dhaka Metropolitan Area, this vibrant city boasts a staggering population of 22.4 million, sprawling across 306.4 square kilometers. Divided into Dhaka North City Corporation with 54 wards and Dhaka South City Corporation with 75 wards, the city encompasses 50 Police Stations under the Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP). Remarkably, Dhaka is often acknowledged as the most densely populated built-up urban area globally.
Electoral Landscape
The focus of the 12th National Assembly election sharpens on the 16 constituencies within the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. These constituencies, namely Dhaka 2 through Dhaka 18, collectively house an impressive count of 5,750,504 registered voters.
Assessing Voter Dynamics
A meticulous and all-encompassing survey was recently conducted to delve into the presence and status of voters within their respective constituencies across the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. The survey findings unveiled intriguing statistics: across the 16 constituencies, the average percentage of Unidentified Voters stood at 54.58%. Meanwhile, Living Voters and those who retained their addresses comprised 44.57% and 35.88%, respectively.
The survey brought forth notable variations within specific constituencies. Dhaka 12 emerged with the highest percentage of Unidentified Voters at 61.45%, contrasting sharply with Dhaka 9, which recorded the lowest percentage at 50.51%. Dhaka 12 also exhibited the lowest percentage of Living Voters at 37.81%, while Dhaka 9 showcased the highest at 48.42%.
Research Objectives and Scope
The survey aimed at achieving five key objectives:
- Estimating the percentage of voters who changed addresses during enrollment.
- Assessing the percentage of unidentified, identified, and living voters in respective constituencies.
- Determining the percentage of living voters who retained addresses within constituencies.
- Estimating the percentage of deceased, expatriate, bedridden, and physically or mentally challenged voters.
- Determining the anticipated percentage of voters expected on Election Day.
Unveiling the Research Methodology
The research relied on face-to-face surveys meticulously carried out using a structured questionnaire designed to fulfill the research objectives. The foundational data, encompassing the initial four columns of the Structured Questionnaire, was sourced from the Voter List obtained from the Election Commission.
A team comprising 320 undergraduate students, organized into 16 groups with 20 members each, conducted data collection by physically visiting addresses listed in the questionnaire. Respondents were randomly selected from the Voter List.
The data collection phase spanned from August 20, 2023, to December 12, 2023, comprehensively covering the entirety of the Dhaka Metropolitan Area across the 16 designated constituencies.
Sampling Methodology:
All respondents (voters) and areas were chosen using the Random Sampling Method.
Study Sample Details:
The study encompassed 151,037 voters across 16 constituencies within the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. To ensure research precision, a standardized number of respondents (voters) were randomly selected from 288 areas, encompassing most, if not all, wards within the respective constituencies.
The following table displays Constituency, Ward, Area, sample size (Voter), Unidentified Voter, Identified Voter, Change of Address, Deceased Voter, Expatriate, Bedridden, Physically/Mentally Challenged, Living Voter, Living Voter (unchanged address), Percentage of Unidentified Voter, Percentage of Living Voter, and Percentage of Living Voter (unchanged address) under the study:
Here Constituency: Dhaka 2, total voter 10364, unidentified voter 5945, identified voter 4419, change of address 789, dead 50, expatriate 16, bedridden 15, physically/ mentally challenged 14, living voter (6-8) 4369, living voter who have not changed address (6-7-8) 3580, percentage of unidentified voter 57.36, percentage of living voter 42.16, percentage of living voter who have not changed address 34.54 (6-7-8).
Constituency: Dhaka 4: Total Voter 12865, Unidentified Voter 6793, Identified Vote 6072, Change of Address 986, dead 89, Expatriate 24, Bedridden 19, Physically/ mentally challenged 16, Living Voter [6-8] 5983, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 4997, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 52.80, Percentage of Living Voter 46.51, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 38.84.
Constituency: Dhaka 5: Total voter 27811, Unidentified voter 14388, Identified
Voter 13423, Change of Address 2006, Dead 202, Expatriate 70, Bedridden 64, Physically/ mentally challenged 54, Living Voter [6-8] 13221, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 11215, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 51.73, Percentage of Living Voter 47.54, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 40.33.
Constituency: Dhaka 6: Total Voter 8757, Unidentified Voter 4496, Identified Voter 4261, Dead 950, Expatriate 95, Bedridden 20, Physically/ mentally challenged 19, Living Voter [6-8] 32, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8]4166, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 3216, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 51.34, Percentage of Living Voter 47.57, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6- 7-8] 36.72.
Constituency: Dhaka 7: Total Voter 8821, Unidentified Voter 4845, Identified Voter 3976, Change of Address 847, Dead 73, Expatriate 12, Bedridden 16, Physically/mentally challenged 15, Living Voter [6-8]3903, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 3056, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 54.93, Percentage of Living Voter 44.25, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 34.64.
Constituency: Dhaka 8: Voter 4993, Unidentified Voter 2567, Identified Voter 2426, Change of Address 525, Dead 57, Expatriate 5, Bedridden 8, Physically/ mentally challenged 9, Living Voter [6-8] 2369, voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 1844, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 51.41, Percentage of Living Voter 47.45, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 36.93.
Constituency: Dhaka 9: Voter 6321, Unidentified Voter 3652, Identified Voter 2669, Change of Address 576, Dead 56, Expatriate 13, Bedridden 21, Physically/ mentally challenged 17, Living Voter [6-8] 2369, voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 1844, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 51.41, Percentage of Living Voter 47.45, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 32.23.
Constituency: Dhaka 10: Total Voter 6321, Unidentified Voter 3652, Identified Voter 2669, Change of Address 576, Dead 56, Expatriate 13, Bedridden 21, Physically/ mentally challenged 17, Living Voter [6-8] 2613, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 2037, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 57.78, Percentage of Living Voter 41.34, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 32.23.
Constituency: Dhaka 11: Total Voter 4997, Unidentified Voter 2820, Identified Voter 2177, Change of Address 446, Dead 47, Expatriate 9, Bedridden 9, Physically/ mentally challenged 12, Living Voter [6-8] 2130, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 1684, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 56.43, Percentage of Living Voter 42.63, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 32.23.
Constituency: Dhaka 12: Total Voter 21695, Unidentified Voter 13332, Identified Voter 8363, Change of Address 1558, Dead 116, Expatriate 25, Bedridden 39, Physically/ mentally challenged 26, Living Voter [6-8] 8202, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 6644, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 61.45, Percentage of Living Voter 37.81, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 30.62.
Constituency: Dhaka 13: Total Voter 5084, Unidentified Voter 2670, Identified Voter 2414, Change of Address 1558, Dead 52, Expatriate 13, Bedridden 15, Physically/ mentally challenged 7, Living Voter [6-8] 2362, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 1853, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 52.52, Percentage of Living Voter 46.46, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 36.45.
Constituency: Dhaka 14: Total Voter 6529, Unidentified Voter 3430, Identified Voter 3099, Change of Address 677, Dead 62, Expatriate 14, Bedridden 16, Physically/ mentally challenged 13, Living Voter [6-8] 3037, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 2360, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 52.53, Percentage of Living Voter 46.52, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 36.15.
Constituency: Dhaka 15: Total Voter 6136, Unidentified Voter 3314, Identified Voter 2822, Change of Address 600, Dead 58, Expatriate 15, Bedridden 12, Physically/ mentally challenged 15, Living Voter [6-8] 276, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 2164, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 54.01, Percentage of Living Voter 45.05, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 35.27.
Constituency: Dhaka 16: Total Voter 6136, Unidentified Voter 4142, Identified Voter 3256, Change of Address 696, Dead 75, Expatriate 13, Bedridden 20, Physically/ mentally challenged 13, Living Voter [6-8] 3181, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 2485, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 54.01, Percentage of Living Voter 43.00, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 33.59.
Constituency: Dhaka 17: Total Voter 4235, Unidentified Voter 2371, Identified Voter 1384, Change of Address 418, Dead 43, Expatriate 12, Bedridden 18, Physically/ mentally challenged 8, Living Voter [6-8] 1821, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 1403, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 55.99, Percentage of Living Voter 43.00, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 33.13.
Constituency: Dhaka 18: Total Voter 2578, Unidentified Voter 1384, Identified Voter 1194, Change of Address 248, Dead 27, Expatriate 6, Bedridden 7, Physically/ mentally challenged8, Living Voter [6-8] 1167, Living voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 919, Percentage of Unidentified Voter 53.69, Percentage of Living Voter 45.27, Percentage of Living Voter who have not changed address [6-7-8] 35.65.
Reasons for Low Voter Turnout in Respective Constituencies:
- Pandemic Impact: During the Covid-19 pandemic, a significant number of Dhaka residents left due to job losses or reduced incomes, necessitating a shift to more affordable accommodations.
- Global Economic Downturn: The Covid-19 crisis and conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war caused a global economic decline, raising commodity prices. This prompted a substantial exodus from Dhaka as nearly 80% of its residents live in rented spaces, with many relocating after 2020.
- Upward Mobility: Some voters changed residences due to salary hikes or career advancements, opting for new housing arrangements.
- Career Changes: Alterations in professions or job postings compelled some voters to relocate and change addresses.
- Government-led Development: The Hatirjheel Project led to the migration of voters from that area. The inauguration of the Padma Bridge allowed residents from southern Bangladesh to pursue different professions or reside in their hometowns, given improved accessibility to Dhaka. Additionally, the launch of the Metro Rail and Elevated Expressway prompted some residents to move for faster and more cost-effective commuting.
- Displacement Due to Development: The demolition of multistoried buildings and ongoing development activities led to the departure of numerous voters residing in slum areas.
- Rural Job Opportunities: Some voters left Dhaka as job opportunities in villages improved, reducing the necessity to stay solely for work purposes.
- Educational Transitions: Changes in children’s schooling or college admissions prompted certain voters to relocate residences to accommodate new educational needs.
