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Geopolitics

Geopolitical Rifts Loom Over Brazil’s G20 Agenda

by Press Xpress March 28, 2024
written by Press Xpress March 28, 2024
Geopolitical Rifts Loom Over Brazil's G20 Agenda
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  • Brazil assumed the rotating presidency of the G20 on December 1, 2023, for one year
  • Brazil’s G20 presidency focuses on building a fair world and a sustainable planet
  • 783 million people worldwide faced chronic hunger in 2023

The G20 serves as the primary platform for economic cooperation and dialogue among the world’s leading economies. The members of the G20 collectively account for more than 80 percent of global gross domestic product, three-quarters of world trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population. Moreover, the forum remains the world’s premium platform for coordinating international policy.

Since the Ukraine war began, the G20 is widely seen to have been diminished in its effectiveness given growing global geopolitical divisions. Even being a G20 member, however, Brazil is promoting an ambitious agenda in 2024, including reforms to key multilateral bodies such as the United Nations (UN), World Trade Organisation, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

On December 1, 2023, Brazil assumed the rotating presidency of the G20 for a one-year term, succeeding India, which held the position in 2023. Brazil is now tasked with organizing technical meetings and ministerial conferences leading up to the 19th G20 Summit, scheduled for November 18 and 19, 2024, in Rio de Janeiro. This event will convene heads of State and Government from the world’s major economies to deliberate on globally significant topics.

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By the end of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s term in 2026, Brazil will have presided over the United Nations Security Council, the Mercosur trade alliance, and the BRICS group of developing nations. Additionally, it will host the UN Climate Change Conference (COP) in late 2025.

To avoid holding both roles in the same year, Brazil deferred its BRICS leadership to 2025 to achieve its ambitious plans for both. The country expects to hold more than 100 meetings in cities in all of its five regions.

Until November 30, 2024, Brazil holds the presidency of the G20, a group that brings together the world’s largest economies – 19 countries, plus the African Union and the European Union. Throughout this period, Brazil will be responsible for coordinating the G20 and organizing technical meetings, ministerial conferences and the next summit of heads of State, which will happen on November 18 and 19, 2024, in Rio de Janeiro.

Brazil’s ambitious G20 agenda

Brazil’s motto for its G20 presidency is “building a fair world and a sustainable planet,” reflecting the fact that while Brazil is interested in addressing climate change, the country also hopes to tackle a broad suite of challenges that Global South countries have faced in recent years.

This focus comes through in the three priorities that President Lula laid out in a speech at the closing of the G20 New Delhi Summit: “1. social inclusion and the fight against hunger, 2. energy transition and sustainable development in its three aspects (social, economic and environmental) and 3. reform of global governance institutions.”

Food security and hunger elimination

According to the World Food Programme, 783 million people worldwide faced chronic hunger in 2023, and most are in emerging markets and developing economies. 

Under the Indian G20 presidency, the New Delhi Declaration was adopted by all members at the leaders’ summit, it committed members to cooperate on agriculture research, access to fertilizers, capacity-building, and market transparency to foster food security among vulnerable populations.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has doubled down on the social dimension of development, with a focus on combating poverty, inequality, and hunger.

Food security is front and center in his domestic and foreign policy.

Transition to Sustainable Energy and Development

Brazil’s G20 presidency is set to enhance the realm of climate and sustainable finance, with a focus on nature-based solutions, given Brazil’s rich biodiversity. The country is also working on efficient coordination among international financial institutions. Brazil will host the UN climate change conference, COP30, in 2025, providing a unique opportunity to synchronize its presidencies on both platforms for continued progress.

Another area of focus is the provision of digital public infrastructure to enhance the delivery of public services. Both India and Brazil have achieved success in building digital payments ecosystems. The G20 has set targets for modernizing payments for central banks and multilateral institutions.

International financial institutions

Brazil is focusing on governance and on augmenting the influence of emerging markets over decision-making at international financing institutions.

However, divergent interests between the world’s two largest economies and heightened geopolitical tensions will make meaningful progress on economic global governance difficult.

Brazil’s achievements in this area will likely be incremental yet important. For example, Brazil might advance innovative ideas for increasing private finance partnerships and for making measurable improvements in international financial institutions’ operations and development impact assessments.

Threatened by Geopolitics

Advancing these priorities will require managing intense divisions among the G20’s membership. President Lula has already encountered this challenging environment when he faced substantial criticism for suggesting that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin wouldn’t be detained if he attended the summit in Rio de Janeiro, despite the International Criminal Court’s warrant for Putin. 

In 2022 and 2023, there were frequent confrontations among G20 foreign ministers, with Russia’s Sergey Lavrov exiting some meetings, and the usual group photos of the so-called “G20 family” were absent. With the ongoing Ukraine issue proving to be a major point of contention, significant obstacles to productive dialogue persist this year.

However, it’s not just the Ukraine conflict that poses challenges. There have also been longstanding tensions between China and the West.

Despite these geopolitical rifts posing problems for any leader, President Lula might be in a good position to bridge these gaps. He has strived to maintain Brazil’s non-alignment and has kept channels open for dialogue with a broad spectrum of nations. This approach has enabled Brazil to emerge as a leader in the Global South, and President Lula has been instrumental in launching new initiatives such as an alliance of rainforest nations and the expanded Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa bloc (BRICS). Alongside South-South cooperation, President Lula has also worked with Global North countries, as seen in the formation of a new partnership with the US to promote labor rights.

Despite the uncertainties, one thing is clear: the Brazilian presidency will persist in its efforts to surpass the expectations set for it. Its success in this endeavor will largely hinge on whether the post-Ukraine divisions between the West and Russia continue to widen in the coming months.

The final G20 summit in Rio will take place on November 18–19, 2024, just after the US presidential election—by which time Joe Biden will either be a lame duck or recently re-elected.

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