Luis Montenegro, at the helm of Portugal’s opposition centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) party, has triumphantly seized the mantle of victory in the nation’s snap general election, emerging victorious after a fiercely contested battle against the incumbent Socialists.
In the early hours of Monday morning, March 11, 2024, Montenegro seized the moment, boldly announcing his victory as the leader of the Socialist Party (PS), Pedro Nuno Santos, conceded defeat. However, the political landscape remained shrouded in uncertainty, as doubts loomed over Montenegro’s ability to govern independently without the alliance of the far-right Chega party—a group he steadfastly refused to engage in negotiations with.
AD and Allies Edge Past Socialists in Portuguese General Election
The Democratic Alliance and its conservative allies in Madeira secured a commanding presence by claiming a minimum of 79 seats in the 230-seat parliament, edging past the Socialists who managed to secure 77 seats. Notably, Chega’s parliamentary representation experienced an astonishing surge, quadrupling to a minimum of 48 lawmakers, effectively propelling the combined right to a majority.
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Even as the final count of overseas ballots awaited, Montenegro addressed a crowd of supporters in the heart of Lisbon, asserting, “It seems inescapable that the AD won the elections and that the Socialists lost.” Emphasizing the responsibility bestowed upon the new parliament, Montenegro urged political parties to act with diligence and “comply with the wish of the Portuguese people.”
“It seems inescapable that the AD won the elections and that the Socialists lost.”
-Luís Montenegro, Former Deputy of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
This snap election, prompted by the sudden resignation of Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa amid a corruption investigation, witnessed a notable upswing in support for Chega. The party positioned itself as a formidable alternative to the longstanding political duopoly, vowing to combat corruption and expressing hostility towards what it deemed “excessive” immigration.
Ricardo Baptista Leite, a former Portuguese member of Parliament, underscored the significance of the far-right’s meteoric rise, stating, “We are seeing an extreme rise [in the far right] that clearly has become the third dominating party” in Portugal’s political landscape. The former boasted a full majority with over 115 seats in the 230-seat parliament. In this new era, the left-wing parties find themselves struggling to surpass the 90-seat threshold, marking a significant ebb in their political influence.
“We are seeing an extreme rise [in the far right] that clearly has become the third dominating party…The other conclusion that seems very clear is how the left has decreased tremendously.”
–Ricardo Baptista Leite, a former Portuguese member of Parliament
A Nation at the Crossroads of Memory and Change
The canvas on which this political drama unfolded was painted with the hues of economic challenges. Against the backdrop of low wages, a burdensome cost of living exacerbated by last year’s surges in inflation and interest rates, Portugal faced a crucible of issues. A housing crisis and deficiencies in public healthcare further fueled the discontent that simmered beneath the surface.
Portugal’s pivot towards the far right, echoing a broader trend in Europe, unveils a transformation with historical echoes. The nation, having embraced democracy five decades ago after the fall of the fascist dictatorship of Antonio de Oliveira Salazar, now witnesses a reconfiguration that raises questions about its collective memory.
At the epicenter of this political earthquake stands Chega leader Andre Ventura, a former law professor and television football pundit. His readiness to compromise on contentious proposals, such as chemical castration for certain sex offenders and life prison sentences, hints at a strategic maneuver. Ventura’s willingness to collaborate with other right-of-center parties in a governing alliance underscores the pragmatic dynamics at play.
From Constitutional Mandates to Governing Challenges
In adherence to the Portuguese constitution’s stipulations, a mandated interlude of six months must transpire before the echo of electoral drums can resound again, with a subsequent 55-day hiatus preceding the possibility of fresh elections. The nation, therefore, finds itself navigating the labyrinth of a fractured parliamentary landscape, where the political ballet must go on until mid-November, fostering an interim dance of uncertainties.
This week ushers in the commencement of this arduous task, a political overture where President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa orchestrates meetings with leaders from all victorious parliamentary factions. The crescendo of this orchestration culminates in the invitation extended to the candidate deemed most capable of weaving a coalition of governance, ascending to the mantle of prime minister.
Come next month, barring unforeseen twists, Luis Montenegro and his cabinet shall be sworn in, yet the path beyond that ceremonial moment remains shrouded in ambiguity. Antonio Costa’s government, in its parting act, managed to secure the passage of the 2024 budget amid the turmoil of a leader’s resignation amidst an influence-peddling probe last year. The looming question now, however, is whether Montenegro’s center-right administration will choose to uphold or amend this fiscal blueprint.
Should Montenegro opt for continuity, his minority government may navigate the political terrain until October when the 2025 budget draft must grace the parliamentary stage. The delicate dance of parliamentary approval, however, hinges on the willingness of the socialists to negotiate – a task fraught with uncertainty, particularly without the far right’s support. A rejection of the budget could set the stage for a political encore, reminiscent of 2021 when far-left parties rebuffed Costa’s bill, propelling the nation into a snap vote.
Europe’s Social Democrats in Turmoil
Beyond the confines of Portugal, Sunday’s electoral setback casts a foreboding shadow over Europe’s social democrats. With Lisbon slipping from their grasp, the socialists find themselves in governance in merely four of the European Union’s 27 member countries. The Iberian Peninsula, lauded until recently as a stronghold of socialist influence, now stands as a precarious fortress, its foundations eroding with the rightward swing of Portugal. As the red banner of socialism wavers, questions linger about the resilience of Pedro Sánchez’s tenuous minority government in neighboring Spain.
In the unfolding drama, as Montenegro emerges poised to claim the prime ministerial mantle with a margin of just a few thousand votes over his social democratic rivals, the European People’s Party (EPP) confronts a perplexing win. The celebration of this technical triumph remains muted, with a curious absence of congratulatory notes from EPP President Manfred Weber and the party’s lead candidate, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, on Monday morning.
In stark contrast, the far-right forces across the European bloc exult in Chega’s victory, with Spain’s Vox party and kindred spirits heralding the results as a substantial breakthrough against the backdrop of an obsolete bipartisan model. The resonance of Chega’s success is anticipated to echo loudly as like-minded groups leverage the triumph to galvanize support in the lead-up to June’s European Parliament elections.
