Austria’s mainstream political establishment vowed to keep the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) out of power after its strong performance in last autumn’s parliamentary elections. Yet, the collapse of coalition talks among centrist parties has cleared a path for FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl to potentially claim the chancellery, marking a significant moment for Austria and the wider European political landscape.
Collapse of Centrist Coalitions
Chancellor Karl Nehammer, leader of the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP), announced his resignation on Saturday after failing to form a government with the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the liberal Neos. His departure underscores the fractures within Austria’s political center, which have been exacerbated by infighting and diverging priorities.
Christian Stocker, the ÖVP’s interim leader, swiftly reversed the party’s stance against the FPÖ, signaling willingness to enter coalition talks with the far right. This U-turn not only reflects the ÖVP’s weakened position but also highlights the Freedom Party’s growing influence in Austrian politics.
“The probability is now very high of Kickl as chancellor,” said Austrian political analyst Thomas Hofer. “Kickl himself likely wants to avoid fresh elections, making a coalition deal his priority.”
Freedom Party’s Rise
The FPÖ secured its best-ever election results last September, winning 29% of the vote amid widespread disillusionment with Austria’s political establishment. Years of economic stagnation and corruption scandals have eroded trust in the traditional centrist parties, providing fertile ground for Kickl’s populist platform.
While Kickl’s controversial views—including his pro-Russian stance and conspiratorial rhetoric during the COVID-19 pandemic—have made him a polarizing figure, his leadership has undeniably broadened the FPÖ’s appeal. Recent polls suggest the FPÖ could capture up to 37% of the vote in a snap election, further solidifying its position as Austria’s dominant political force.
Historical Context and Political Realignments
Austria’s far-right has a history of coalition governance, including partnerships with the ÖVP in 1999 and 2017. The notion of a “cordon sanitaire” to isolate the FPÖ has always been tenuous, reflecting the pragmatic—if contentious—approach of Austrian politics.
Kickl’s ascent also aligns with a broader trend across Europe, where far-right parties are gaining ground. A victory for the FPÖ would position Austria as a key player in this movement, potentially emboldening similar forces elsewhere on the continent.
ÖVP in Turmoil
The ÖVP’s internal divisions have further complicated its ability to counter the FPÖ. Nehammer’s resignation came after repeated failures to forge a coalition with the SPÖ, a task hindered by entrenched factionalism within both parties. Analysts point to the inability of centrist parties to reconcile their differences as a critical factor in the FPÖ’s rising influence.
Adding to the ÖVP’s challenges is the shadow of former chancellor Sebastian Kurz. Despite his conviction for perjury and ongoing corruption investigations, Kurz has attempted a political comeback, arguing that his leadership could revive the party’s fortunes. His proposal for a snap election, however, was rejected by party officials concerned about depleted resources and poor polling numbers.
“Even though Kurz’s play failed, it effectively ended Nehammer’s leadership,” said Hofer. “His influence within the party remains significant, and many believe he could return to power in the future.”
Austria’s Political Future
The political deadlock in Austria underscores the broader erosion of the country’s centrist consensus. The FPÖ’s growing momentum and the ÖVP’s strategic realignments suggest a significant shift in the nation’s political trajectory. Whether through a coalition or snap elections, Herbert Kickl’s rise seems increasingly inevitable, marking a historic moment for Austria’s far right.
As the Freedom Party moves closer to power, Austria’s political landscape is poised for a dramatic transformation. The implications of this shift extend beyond the country’s borders, reflecting a Europe-wide trend that challenges the established political order.
