Iran and Saudi Arabia are advancing their diplomatic efforts toward a cautious rapprochement, aiming to reshape their historically fraught relationship. Following a deal brokered by China in 2023 to restore ties, the two regional rivals are engaging in high-level discussions and diplomatic visits, signalling a potential shift in Middle Eastern alliances as both countries confront shared security and economic concerns.
On Sunday (November 10), Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman received a call from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. According to Saudi state media, Pezeshkian expressed support for Saudi Arabia’s initiative to host a joint Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh on Monday. The meeting will bring together Arab and Muslim leaders to address escalating violence in Gaza and Lebanon.
A significant move in this rapprochement took place in Tehran, where Saudi Arabia’s Chief of Staff, General Fayyad al-Ruwaili, held discussions with his Iranian counterpart, General Mohammad Bagheri. Iranian media reported that the meeting aimed to boost security collaboration, with Bagheri extending an invitation to Saudi forces to participate in next year’s Iranian naval exercises, either as participants or observers. This level of military interaction is rare and signals a deepening trust between the two countries.
Half a Century of Rivalry
Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been marked by tension and competition since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which transformed Iran’s governance and its regional role. As Iran positioned itself as a revolutionary leader for Shia Muslims, Saudi Arabia’s Sunni monarchy maintained its influence through the role of custodian of Islam’s holy cities, Mecca and Medina, and by promoting Sunni Islam. Their rivalry deepened in 2010 with the Arab Spring, which saw political movements sweeping the region. Saudi leaders worried that Iran would capitalize on these events to increase its influence.
This ideological rivalry continues in Yemen, where the two countries back opposing sides. Iran supports the Houthi rebels, a Shia-led militia group, while Saudi Arabia has led a coalition against the Houthis, aiming to restore the internationally recognized Yemeni government. The conflict has contributed to one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with both countries entangled in a costly struggle for influence. While diplomatic efforts are progressing, Yemen remains a significant hurdle in Saudi-Iranian relations.
Saudi Arabia’s Shift Towards Regional Autonomy
Saudi Arabia’s motivations for a rapprochement stem from a desire for regional security and economic diversification. In 2019, an attack on Saudi oil facilities—blamed on Iran—raised alarms in Riyadh. The incident highlighted the limitations of Saudi Arabia’s reliance on U.S. security guarantees and underscored the need for a more self-reliant approach to regional threats. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030, an ambitious economic reform plan to reduce Saudi Arabia’s dependence on oil, relies heavily on a stable regional environment that attracts foreign investment. Diplomatic rapprochement with Iran aligns with this strategy.
There is also the matter of ending the conflict in Yemen. Saudi Arabia hopes that improved relations with Iran could result in a lasting ceasefire with the Houthis. While Iran’s ability to fully influence the Houthis is uncertain, analysts say Iran’s involvement could provide some leverage in Yemen, potentially alleviating one of Riyadh’s significant security concerns.
Iran’s Strategic Calculations
For Iran, rapprochement offers economic and security benefits. Years of sanctions, economic struggles, and periodic unrest have left the Iranian regime under pressure. With limited success in securing a renewed nuclear deal and economic sanctions relief from the West, Iran has increasingly turned toward regional diplomacy and multilateral alliances such as the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Improved ties with Saudi Arabia are a natural extension of this strategy, as Tehran seeks to alleviate its economic burdens and enhance its regional influence.
Iran is also keen to prevent any anti-Iran alliance that might include both Arab states and Israel. Saudi Arabia had shown signs of exploring a relationship with Israel, which Iran sees as a security threat. By fostering closer ties with Saudi Arabia, Tehran aims to discourage Riyadh from forming closer ties with Israel, avoiding what it perceives as a regional coalition against Iran.
The emerging diplomatic engagement between Iran and Saudi Arabia represents a shift that could reshape the region’s power dynamics. Whether this cautious rapprochement will hold in the face of longstanding ideological differences remains to be seen, but for now, both countries appear committed to pursuing a course that could benefit the broader region.
