Japan’s ruling party will hold one of its most unpredictable leadership elections in decades today. The outcome could see Japan’s youngest-ever leader, its first female prime minister, or a seasoned veteran succeed on his fifth attempt.
The leadership contest, triggered by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s resignation following a series of scandals that severely damaged the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) approval ratings, has set the stage for a tight race. Among the nine candidates, polls show three frontrunners: 43-year-old former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 63-year-old economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, and 67-year-old former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba.
The next leader faces mounting challenges at home, including surging living costs, alongside a fraught security landscape in East Asia, shaped by an increasingly assertive China and a nuclear-armed North Korea. The LDP, which has held power for most of Japan’s post-war era and retains a parliamentary majority, must call a general election by October 2025. Koizumi has indicated he would push for an early election, which could take place as soon as next month.
Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at Tokyo University, commented, “It’s safe to assume that Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi will perform well, but it’s difficult to predict who will ultimately win.”
The election result, determined by votes from the LDP’s 368 lawmakers and an equal number from rank-and-file party members, is expected to be announced around 2:20 PM JST. If no candidate secures a majority, a second-round vote will be held between the top two candidates, with lawmakers voting again and a reduced share of votes allocated to rank-and-file members.
Historically, the backing of influential party factions made election outcomes more predictable. However, the recent disbanding of many factions due to a political donations scandal has made this race much harder to forecast.
Key Contenders
Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, leads in support among lawmakers, though his proposals to reform Japan’s strict labor laws may have cost him some grassroots backing. If elected, Koizumi would be the youngest prime minister since Japan’s first, Ito Hirobumi, who took office in 1885 at age 44.
Shigeru Ishiba has strong appeal among party members, though his willingness to challenge party orthodoxy has made him unpopular with some colleagues. Having failed in four prior leadership attempts, he has stated this will be his final run.
Sanae Takaichi, a nationalist who supports the economic policies of former prime minister Shinzo Abe, represents a potentially historic choice as Japan’s first female leader. However, her candidacy could spark economic concerns, with some analysts predicting a yen sell-off if she pushes to reverse the Bank of Japan’s efforts to raise interest rates.
Takaichi’s promise to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, a site honoring Japan’s war dead including convicted war criminals, may also reignite tensions with China and South Korea.
The last Japanese leader to visit the shrine was Abe in 2013.
