US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Donald Lu has recently warned Bangladesh and India of the ‘increasing’ security challenges posed by the Myanmar crisis in the Indo-Pacific region. He stated at a time when the Bangladesh border situation has worsened since the ethnic Rakhine rebel group has been fighting the Myanmar Junta for greater autonomy and rights in the Rakhine state.
Lu said that the situation in Burma was not getting better and what worried him was that the refugee crisis and the security problems it was creating for Bangladesh and “potentially for India” could get deeper in the coming days. He also urged both countries to work together with the US and other partners to restore democracy and human rights in Myanmar.
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With serious note from political observers, the Arakan Army (AA) has also been accused of having links with the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). This Rohingya militant group has carried out attacks on the Myanmar security forces and civilians. The clashes between the junta and the AA have increased the insecurity and instability in the border areas, and have raised the risk of cross-border incidents, such as shelling, firing, or infiltration.
Myanmar’s Arms Imports
Lu’s warning comes amid reports that Myanmar’s military junta has managed to import over $1 billion worth of armaments, circumventing international sanctions and embargoes. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Myanmar was the second-largest importer of major arms in Southeast Asia between 2016 and 2020, after Vietnam.
Lu’s Deeper Meaning
“It (Myanmar Civil War) is something we have to watch out for and enable our partners in the region, in this case Bangladesh and India, to cope with those stresses without it boiling over into instability in their countries as well.”
– Donald Lu
Some analysts have speculated that Lu’s warning to Bangladesh and India may have a deeper meaning, beyond the humanitarian and security implications of the Myanmar crisis. They suggest that Lu may be trying to enlist the support of the two countries for the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy, which aims to counter China’s growing influence and assertiveness in the region.
China is seen as a key ally and patron of the Myanmar junta, providing diplomatic, economic, and military assistance to the regime. China has also blocked several attempts by the UN Security Council to impose sanctions or take action against Myanmar.
By highlighting the security threats posed by Myanmar to Bangladesh and India, Lu may be hoping to persuade them to join the US and other like-minded countries in pressuring and isolating the junta and reducing their dependence and engagement with China.
Bangladesh and India are both important partners for the US in the Indo-Pacific, as they share common values and interests, and have significant economic and strategic potential. However, both countries also have complex relations with China and Myanmar, and may not be willing to take sides or antagonize either of them.
Conflict spillover to Bangladesh
One of the main risks that the Myanmar crisis poses to Bangladesh is the possibility of the conflict spilling over to its territory. Bangladesh shares a 271-km long border with Myanmar and hosts over 1.1 million Rohingya refugees who fled from the persecution and violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine state.
The Rohingya crisis has been a source of tension and frustration for Bangladesh, as it has strained its resources, security, and diplomacy. Bangladesh has repeatedly called for the repatriation of the Rohingya to Myanmar, but the process has been stalled by the lack of political will, trust, and safety.
Instability and chaos in parts of Bangladesh
Another risk that the Myanmar crisis poses to Bangladesh is the potential for instability and chaos in parts of the country, especially in Cox’s Bazar district, where most of the Rohingya refugees are living in overcrowded and squalid camps. Various problems, such as crime, violence, trafficking, radicalization, drug abuse, and disease have plagued the camps.
Rohingya Refugees Could Deteriorate Situation
A further risk that the Myanmar crisis poses to Bangladesh is the possibility that the Rohingya refugees might become more involved in the violence and chaos in Myanmar, either as victims or as perpetrators. The Rohingya refugees have been living in a state of limbo and uncertainty, without citizenship, rights, or protection.
Some of the Rohingya refugees may feel that they have nothing to lose, and may be tempted or coerced to join the armed resistance against the junta, either by aligning with the ARSA, the AA, or other ethnic armed groups.
Steps Bangladesh could take as Preemptive, Preventive Measures
Given the multiple and complex risks that the Myanmar crisis poses to Bangladesh, it is imperative that Bangladesh takes some preemptive and preventive measures to mitigate and manage them. Some of the possible steps that Bangladesh could take are:
- Strengthening its border security and surveillance.
- Engaging with the Rohingya refugees and the host communities, and addressing their grievances and concerns
- Advocating for the restoration of democracy and human rights in Myanmar, and supporting the efforts of the UN, the ASEAN, and other regional and international actors to find a political and peaceful solution for the Myanmar crisis.
- Diversifying its foreign policy and its economic and strategic partnerships, and maintaining a balanced and pragmatic approach towards China and the US, and other major powers, in the context of the Indo-Pacific dynamics and the Myanmar crisis.
Conclusion
The Myanmar crisis is a serious and urgent challenge for Bangladesh and the region, as it poses various security, humanitarian, and geopolitical risks and implications. Bangladesh needs to be proactive and vigilant and take appropriate measures to protect its interests and values, and to safeguard its stability and prosperity.
Bangladesh also needs to play a constructive and responsible role in the regional and international efforts to resolve the Myanmar crisis and to support the aspirations and the rights of the Myanmar people and the Rohingya refugees. Bangladesh has a stake and a voice in the future of Myanmar and the Indo-Pacific, and it should use them wisely and effectively.
