Indeed, the October 7 attack by Hamas changed the Middle East’s calculus. How the Middle East changes its policy depends on the ability and willingness of the United States to keep Israel in check
The effectiveness of the US strategy in the Middle East has come into question. The recent Hamas attack not only altered the course of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict but also shifted the dynamics across the entire region. US efforts to ease tensions in the area have weakened, resulting in a standoff between Arab governments and Iran. Additionally, China and Russia have seized opportunities for greater involvement.
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Over the past three years, the Biden administration has aimed to reduce its Middle East involvement and concentrate on addressing challenges posed by China. As part of this strategy, the United States has taken steps to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel while attempting to de-escalate tensions with Iran. The goal has been to curtail China’s influence in the region and establish an economic corridor connecting India with the Middle East and Europe.
US Strategy Undermined
The proposed project had two components: an eastern corridor intended to establish a close connection between India and the Arab and Gulf regions, and another to connect the Gulf region with Europe via Jordan and Israel. This initiative was the United States’ response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
However, a surprise attack by Hamas disrupted these plans in several ways. First, it led to the suspension of the process of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Second, the attack prompted a significant buildup of US military installations in the Middle East, which is considered the most significant military event since the war against IS. The Pentagon deployed one warship to the eastern Mediterranean and another to the Gulf. These warships can accommodate more than 100 attack-capable aircraft and launch Tomahawk missiles. Washington’s stated intention is to prevent any third party from interfering in the ongoing conflict.
Thirdly, the effort to ease tensions between the US and Iran has been in vain. Only a month ago, both countries had reached an agreement on a prisoner exchange, with the US releasing $6 billion seized from Iran to facilitate the exchange. This deal was expected to help Iran in curbing militia attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq.
Given the recent developments in the last few weeks, it’s evident that these initiatives have stalled. Pro-Iranian armed groups in Syria and Iraq have attacked US military bases, resulting in injuries to several soldiers. Additionally, US officials have claimed to intercept drones launched at US forces in the North Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi group.
This implies that the United States is at risk of becoming embroiled in a new conflict in the Middle East. The attacks by Hamas and the war in Gaza initiated by Israel have also created disarray among regional governments. On one hand, the US is pressuring its Arab allies to denounce Hamas’s attacks, with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain also issuing similar statements. On the other hand, due to the indiscriminate Israeli attacks, there is increasing pressure on Arab governments to unite on the Palestinian issue. Some Arab governments have already shifted their positions in response to public demands to take a stand against the US.
After the attack on Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital on October 17, Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, condemned the Israeli assault. A few days later, on October 21, at the Peace Summit in Cairo, King Abdullah of Jordan delivered a strongly critical speech against Israeli policies. It’s worth noting that Jordan signed a peace agreement with Israel back in 1994.
The UN Security Council discussed the situation in Gaza on October 24. In that debate, US allies Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia strongly criticized Israel and advocated for an immediate ceasefire. A day later, the United Arab Emirates, along with China and Russia, vetoed the US position because it did not propose an immediate end to the conflict.
Currently, pro-American Arab governments are using strong language to condemn Israeli attacks in an attempt to mitigate public outrage. However, if Israel continues to target Gaza, mere words may no longer suffice. Countries may need to reconsider their agreements to normalize relations with Israel.
The failure to take sufficient action to protect the Palestinians could also undermine regional stability. Arab populations are already frustrated with their governments’ economic policies, and indiscriminate attacks on Palestinians are likely to further enrage them. Furthermore, continued US support for Israeli actions in Gaza may reduce the acceptance of Arab governments by their populations.
Challenges Facing Arab and Iranian Interests
Iran is also experiencing unease, but the root of its discomfort differs. Praises the October 7 attack by Iran-led Hamas. At the same time, they denied their involvement in the attack. Despite supporting Hamas, Tehran does not want to engage in direct conflict with Israel or its allies or the United States. They are proceeding with extreme caution.
Israel asserts that its military campaign in Gaza is directed toward dismantling Palestinian resistance factions and establishing a new administration in Gaza. Consequently, Tehran stands to lose a regional ally.
The alternative now is to stand idly by, or watch terror group Hamas weaken or be eliminated by Israeli attacks, or watch Lebanon-based Hezbollah emerge and pressure Israel from its northern border. Whatever happens, it will have far-reaching implications for America’s allies.
Israel and the United States have issued warnings of severe consequences should Hezbollah be implicated in an attack on Israel. With full backing from the United States, Israel could potentially launch an offensive against this group in Lebanon, leading to renewed instability in the region. Iran is not in favor of this instability.
Over the past two weeks, Russia and China have benefited from the United States’ involvement in this ongoing conflict in the wider Middle East. The United States is already facing challenges in the region due to its past “war on terror” efforts, leading to a favorable view of Russia and China among Muslim populations.
The increased US military presence in the Middle East, enhanced logistical support for the Israeli military, and heightened diplomatic attention to Israel indicate a distancing of the United States from Ukraine and Asian nations seeking to assert their independence from Chinese influence.
Furthermore, endorsing the loss of Palestinian lives in Gaza has eroded the United States’ reputation within the Muslim world, while concurrently bolstering the positions of Russia and China. Both of these nations have called for an immediate halt to hostilities in Gaza. It appears that the United States is undermining its own interests by supporting this destructive conflict. Rather than constraining the influence of China and Russia, the US is inadvertently fortifying their foothold in the Middle East.
Indeed, the October 7 attack by Hamas changed the Middle East’s calculus. How the Middle East changes its policy depends on the ability and willingness of the United States to keep Israel in check. As long as the Israeli government does not negotiate with the Palestinians to end the war in Gaza, lift the blockade, the fire in the region will not go away.
Concerns exist that the conflict could spread to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, potentially triggering widespread uprisings across the Arab world. Such developments would not only adversely affect the United States in the region but also amplify the involvement of Russia and China.
(As per an article authored by Marwan Kabalan, the Director of Policy Analysis at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, which was published in Al Jazeera)
