Germany’s snap parliamentary election on February 23, 2025, follows the dramatic collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition in November 2024. With voting underway, all eyes are on the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), which are leading in opinion polls and poised to reclaim power. The outcome of this election will not only determine Germany’s leadership but also set the course for the nation’s political and economic future.
CDU/CSU Poised for Victory
The CDU/CSU alliance has emerged as the frontrunner in opinion polls, garnering approximately 30% of voter support. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU, is the most likely candidate to become Germany’s next chancellor. His campaign has focused on key issues such as curbing irregular migration, revitalizing the economy, and maintaining Germany’s influence within the European Union.
The conservative bloc’s victory, however, will not translate into a straightforward path to governance. With no party expected to secure an outright majority, coalition negotiations will be crucial in determining the composition of the next government.
Potential Coalition Scenarios
Given the CDU/CSU’s lead but lack of a majority, the next step will be coalition-building. The following are the most viable scenarios:
CDU/CSU-SPD Coalition: Despite suffering a setback in the polls, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains a potential coalition partner for the CDU/CSU. Historically, the two parties have worked together in “grand coalitions.” Given SPD’s centrist position, this partnership could provide stability but may also face resistance from voters seeking a fresh political direction.
CDU/CSU-Greens Alliance: The environmentalist Greens have polled lower than in previous elections but could still play a pivotal role in the formation of the next government. A CDU-Greens coalition would likely focus on economic growth while incorporating strong environmental policies, aligning with Germany’s long-term sustainability goals.
Three-Party Coalition: If neither the SPD nor the Greens alone provide sufficient support to the CDU/CSU, a three-party coalition involving both might be necessary. Such an arrangement could ensure a broader political consensus but would require delicate negotiations to reconcile policy differences.
The AfD Factor: Strong Polling but No Allies
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured the second-highest polling numbers at around 20%. However, the party remains politically isolated, as no mainstream party has expressed willingness to collaborate with them due to their nationalist and anti-immigration stance. This exclusion will likely leave AfD in opposition despite its significant voter support.
Election Issues and Voter Concerns
This election has been shaped by several pressing issues:
- Immigration: The handling of migration remains a contentious topic, with the CDU/CSU advocating for stricter regulations. AfD has capitalized on this issue, drawing support from voters concerned about border policies.
- Economic Stability: Germany’s economy has faced turbulence in recent years, with debates surrounding taxation, job creation, and inflation dominating political discourse.
- Foreign Policy and Ukraine: The ongoing war in Ukraine has influenced Germany’s defense and foreign policy priorities, with discussions on military aid and energy independence playing a crucial role in party platforms.
- Climate and Energy Transition: The Greens continue to push for aggressive climate policies, while conservative parties aim to balance environmental goals with economic growth.
Election Integrity and Disinformation
The 2025 German election has not been without controversy. Misinformation, particularly from foreign sources, has been a major concern. The German Interior Ministry has accused Russia of deploying disinformation campaigns to sway public opinion. Additionally, Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of X (formerly Twitter), has voiced support for AfD, contributing to online misinformation surrounding the election.
What’s Next?
As polling stations close at 6 p.m. local time, exit polls will offer the first indication of the election outcome. If CDU/CSU emerges victorious, Friedrich Merz will begin negotiations to form a coalition government, a process that could take weeks or even months.
Regardless of the final results, this election marks a turning point in German politics. The collapse of Scholz’s coalition has triggered a shift in voter sentiment, and the new government will have to address pressing challenges while maintaining stability in Europe’s largest economy. The coming days will be crucial in shaping Germany’s political landscape for the years to come.
