As the United States goes to the polls on November 5, 2024, millions of Americans are casting their ballots in what could be one of the most consequential elections in recent history. On one side is Vice President Kamala Harris, stepping up for the Democrats after President Joe Biden’s unexpected decision to forgo re-election. On the other, former President Donald Trump is making a dramatic third attempt to return to the White House, backed by a dedicated base despite his legal challenges and polarizing reputation. This election is a high-stakes contest amid pressing national concerns. Let’s dive into the major factors at play and understand how this election may shape America’s future.
Kamala Harris: Democratic Nominee
After President Joe Biden, who is 81, announced in July that he would not seek re-election, Vice President Harris stepped forward as the Democratic nominee. Harris has selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate. Walz, with a background as a teacher, congressman, and National Guard veteran, appeals to the Midwest’s working-class voters and military families. Harris, who has made economic justice, climate action, and healthcare reform central to her platform, has benefited from her ability to leverage Biden’s campaign apparatus, allowing her to shatter fundraising records and draw support from a diverse voter base.
Donald Trump: Republican Nominee
Former President Donald Trump, 78, is making a bold bid for the presidency once again, embarking on his third campaign. Despite facing legal challenges, including charges related to the handling of classified information and disputes over the 2020 election outcome, he remains committed to his vision and has a strong base of supporters rallying behind him. Trump’s support base remains resilient, and he easily secured the Republican nomination. His campaign has focused on the “America First” agenda, emphasizing deregulation, energy independence, and a robust stance on immigration.
Running alongside Trump is Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegy and a rising figure within the party, particularly popular among conservative Midwesterners. This choice reflects Trump’s commitment to appeal to Rust Belt voters who were pivotal to his 2016 victory. While his legal troubles may seem detrimental, Trump’s supporters see him as a champion against what they perceive as a politically motivated judicial system, a factor that could drive up voter turnout among his base.
Third-Party Candidates
While third-party candidates are unlikely to capture significant electoral votes, their presence could affect close races in swing states. Lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. began as an Independent but endorsed Trump in August, focusing on anti-war policies and civil liberties. Dr. Cornel West, running as a progressive, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, known for her advocacy among Arab Americans, also bring niche appeal that could siphon votes from Harris among progressive and anti-establishment voters.
Key Issues Defining the 2024 Election
- Economic Concerns
The economy remains the top issue for Americans. With inflation lingering around 3.7% as of the last quarter and real wages stagnating for many, economic anxiety is widespread. Harris has championed the Inflation Reduction Act and proposed expanding tax credits for working families, focusing on renewable energy job growth and domestic manufacturing. In contrast, Trump’s approach prioritizes cutting federal regulations, reducing taxes, and promoting fossil fuel production. His promise of energy independence, if realized, could have significant implications for gas prices, which have fluctuated between $3.70 and $4.10 per gallon this year. - Healthcare Reform
With healthcare costs rising faster than inflation, Americans are increasingly concerned about healthcare affordability. Harris advocates for expanding the Affordable Care Act and introducing a public option, aiming to cover nearly 30 million uninsured Americans. Trump, however, has proposed market-based reforms and health savings accounts, arguing that competition could lower prices. Both candidates’ plans have garnered attention, especially as approximately 66% of Americans express frustration with current healthcare costs. - Foreign Policy and Middle East Tensions
Global conflicts, particularly the war in Gaza, have heavily influenced this election. Biden’s unwavering support for Israel has led to criticisms from progressive Democrats, many of whom are frustrated with Harris’s stance, which mirrors Biden’s. In response, Trump has emphasized an “America First” stance, focusing on strengthening national borders and reducing foreign intervention. His policy appeals to isolationist sentiments among conservative voters, contrasting Harris’s more internationalist approach. With U.S. global influence increasingly questioned, the next president’s foreign policy could significantly shape America’s role on the world stage. - Judicial and Legal Issues
Trump’s legal battles have added an unprecedented dimension to this election. Facing multiple indictments, Trump’s trials are set to extend into his potential presidency. While Democrats argue that Trump’s legal issues disqualify him, his supporters view these charges as evidence of a biased system targeting a political outsider. This polarization underscores the nation’s deep divide and raises questions about accountability, law, and the power of the presidency.
Early Voting Trends and Key Swing States
Early voting began in September, with over 75 million Americans already casting ballots. Mail-in and early voting data shows high turnout, particularly among young voters and minority communities, key demographics that could tip the scales in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. Notably, these are also states where recent polling shows tight races.
Swing States and Their Influence
The outcome of the election will hinge on a handful of swing states, including:
- Pennsylvania: With 19 electoral votes, this state has consistently swung elections in recent years. Polls show a narrow margin between Harris and Trump, with economic issues at the forefront.
- Georgia: Another key battleground, Georgia’s voters have shown shifting loyalties since 2020. Harris has worked hard to mobilize African American voters here, while Trump is focusing on suburban and rural areas.
- Arizona and Nevada: With significant Latino populations, these states could be decisive. Both candidates have invested heavily in voter outreach in these areas, aware that demographic changes could determine the outcome.
Counting Votes and Potential Delays in Results
Due to the complex nature of vote counting in the U.S., results may not be final on election night. States have different deadlines for counting absentee ballots, and close races could lead to recounts or legal disputes. During the 2020 election, results were delayed by four days, a scenario that could repeat given today’s polarized political climate. Officials expect final state certifications by early December, with the Electoral College vote scheduled for December 17.
How the Electoral College Decides the Next President
In the U.S., the president is elected by the Electoral College, not by popular vote. A candidate needs 270 of 538 electoral votes to win. Each state’s electoral votes are based on its congressional representation, with swing states often determining the outcome. Maine and Nebraska distribute their votes proportionally, but most states adhere to a winner-takes-all system, creating a high-stakes environment in close races.
What to Expect After Election Day
Following Election Day, state officials will verify and certify the votes, while any legal challenges will be addressed. On December 17, electors will meet to cast their votes, formalizing the election results. Congress will meet on January 6, 2025, to certify the outcome. Should there be disputes or close calls, additional legal challenges or recounts could delay final results.
The Stakes of the 2024 Election
The 2024 election will shape the U.S. for years to come, affecting economic policy, international relations, judicial accountability, and social cohesion. Harris’s candidacy offers continuity from the Biden administration with a historic opportunity for female leadership, while Trump’s return promises a reversion to his nationalist policies. With deep divisions on nearly every issue, from healthcare to foreign policy, America’s next leader faces the daunting task of uniting an increasingly fractured nation.
As Americans cast their ballots today, they decide between two distinct visions for the future, underscoring the significance of this high-stakes election.
