Key Highlights:
• Sixth Round of Sanctions: The US imposes its sixth round of sanctions since 2021 on Pakistan and Chinese firms supplying missile technology to Islamabad.
• Targeting Supply Chains: Sanctions freeze US-based assets and ban dealings with Chinese and Pakistani entities linked to missile development.
• Pakistan’s Response: Experts believe Pakistan’s missile program is too advanced to be hampered by these sanctions, continuing its focus on deterrence against India.
• China’s Involvement: China’s deepening role in Pakistan’s defense sector remains a key concern for the US.
• Geopolitical Stakes: The sanctions are part of a broader US effort to counter missile proliferation and limit Chinese influence in South Asia.
The United States has once again targeted Pakistan’s ballistic missile program with sanctions, marking the sixth such action since November 2021. The latest round of sanctions, announced in September 2024, targets several Chinese firms and a Pakistan-based company for supplying missile technology and equipment to Pakistan’s missile program. Despite these repeated sanctions, experts believe Pakistan’s missile development continues to advance, raising critical questions about the effectiveness of such US measures and the broader geopolitical implications.
The US Sanctions Regime
The US sanctions, aimed at curbing missile proliferation, target companies involved in the supply chain for Pakistan’s ballistic missile program. Among the most notable of these is the National Development Complex (NDC), which plays a crucial role in the development of long-range missile systems in Pakistan. The sanctions freeze the US-based assets of the named entities and individuals, prohibiting American citizens and companies from conducting business with them.
The September 2024 sanctions follow a familiar pattern. Chinese firms such as Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Co, Universal Enterprise, and Xi’an Longde Technology Development Co, along with a Chinese national, have been blacklisted for transferring missile technology to Pakistan. The US State Department argues that these entities violated restrictions designed to prevent the proliferation of missile technology capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
However, the frequency of these sanctions raises questions about their effectiveness. Pakistan’s missile program remains robust and continues to evolve despite repeated measures. Experts like Tughral Yamin, a former military official, suggest that Pakistan’s missile development is too advanced for sanctions to create significant barriers. “Pakistan’s missile program has developed to a point where such repeated sanctions will not hamper our progress. We are far beyond that,” Yamin remarked in response to the recent sanctions.
Historical Context and US Concerns
US concerns about Pakistan’s missile program date back to the early 1990s, particularly regarding collaboration between Pakistan and China. The US has consistently pressured Pakistan to limit the range and scope of its ballistic missiles, especially during the Obama administration, which called for Pakistan to avoid developing missiles capable of striking beyond India’s borders. The US’s apprehension stems from the strategic threat Pakistan’s missile program poses in South Asia, particularly in light of the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India. The current round of sanctions under the Biden administration appears to reflect a more aggressive stance, with the US not only targeting Pakistani entities but also Chinese companies that are seen as enablers of missile proliferation. By hitting Pakistan’s supply chain, the US aims to slow down or disrupt the missile program, but the broader goal is likely to send a strong message about the consequences of missile development in South Asia.
Strategic Importance of Pakistan’s Missile Program
Pakistan’s missile program is primarily focused on maintaining a strategic deterrent against India, its archrival. The development of long-range ballistic missiles, such as the Shaheen-III with a range of 2,750km, ensures that Pakistan can target most of India’s key installations. Pakistan’s missile arsenal includes both conventional and nuclear-capable systems, which serve as a deterrent to India’s growing military capabilities. Although Pakistan is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), it claims to follow the regime’s guidelines voluntarily.
The development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), however, is not a focus for Pakistan, as its missile program remains geographically centered on its immediate neighborhood. As Muhammad Faisal, a foreign policy expert, points out, US sanctions primarily stem from fears of Pakistan expanding its missile ranges beyond India, although such expansion has not been a priority for Islamabad. “Pakistan’s missiles, whether conventional or nuclear-tipped, serve as a deterrent against India,” Faisal notes, highlighting the transparent and consistent nature of Pakistan’s missile policy.
The Role of China and Geopolitical Ramifications China’s involvement in Pakistan’s missile program has been a longstanding source of concern for the US. The sanctions targeting Chinese firms reflect Washington’s growing discomfort with Beijing’s role in the proliferation of missile technology. Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington, has rejected the sanctions as “unilateral” and lacking any basis in international law. China’s close ties with Pakistan, particularly in military and defense sectors, have grown stronger over the years, fueled by mutual strategic interests, especially in countering Indian influence in the region.
The US sanctions are, therefore, not just about Pakistan’s missile program but also about exerting pressure on China. The Biden administration’s actions are part of a broader strategy to contain China’s influence, particularly in sensitive defense areas like missile technology. However, the sanctions may have limited impact on China, given its global economic and military clout, and Beijing’s historical resilience to US pressure.
Can US Sanctions Slow Pakistan’s Missile Development?
Despite the sanctions, Pakistan’s missile program continues to develop at a steady pace. The six rounds of sanctions since 2021 have not produced the desired effect of halting or slowing missile development. Experts like Tughral Yamin believe Pakistan’s missile program has reached a point of technological sophistication where such measures are unlikely to have a significant impact. The continued collaboration between Pakistan and China, and the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia, suggest that US sanctions will not make a meaningful dent in Pakistan’s missile development.
While the US will likely continue using sanctions as a tool to curb missile proliferation, the broader geopolitical contest involving Pakistan, India, and China complicates the effectiveness of these measures. For Pakistan, its missile program remains central to its strategic deterrence against India, and the country has shown little interest in halting its development, regardless of external pressure. In this context, US sanctions are unlikely to make a significant difference to Pakistan’s missile ambitions in the near future.
