Despite increased crackdowns on Syrian refugees in countries like Turkey and Lebanon, most Syrians don’t want to go back — both for safety and economic reasons
The Syrian refugee crisis, now in its second decade, continues to be one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Despite increased pressure on Syrian refugees in host countries, most are reluctant to return due to ongoing safety concerns and economic instability in their homeland. This article explores the current situation, focusing on the challenges faced by Syrian refugees and the complexities surrounding their potential return.
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The conflict in Syria has generated the largest refugee crisis in recent history. More than 5.5 million Syrians have fled the country, while another 6.1 million are internally displaced. These staggering numbers underscore the magnitude of the crisis and the enormous challenges faced by both refugees and host countries.
Challenges in Host Countries
Turkey, which hosts approximately 3.6 million Syrian refugees, has seen an increase in forced deportations. Since January 2023, more than 57,000 Syrians have been deported to the region of Idlib, Syria’s last stronghold of militias and opposition forces. The situation in Lebanon is similarly concerning, with the country sharing almost 400km of border with Syrian areas under Assad’s control. Despite claims of voluntary returns, human rights organizations have documented hundreds of cases of forced deportation.
The human cost of these deportations is illustrated by individual stories. Abdul Qader Basmaji, a 25-year-old Syrian refugee, was detained in Istanbul and deported to Idlib without access to his savings. Now struggling to find steady work, he faces potential conscription if he returns to his family in Aleppo. Another case involves Trad, a 27-year-old who was deported from Lebanon despite his father paying a substantial bail. His current whereabouts are unknown, highlighting the dangers faced by those forcibly returned.
Barriers to Return
Several factors deter Syrian refugees from voluntarily returning to their homeland. Security concerns remain paramount, with ongoing conflict in some areas and the risk of persecution in government-controlled regions. Men under 42 face mandatory military service for an undetermined period, putting their lives at risk and placing a financial burden on their families.
Economic factors also play a crucial role. Syria is experiencing a severe economic crisis, with limited job opportunities and lack of access to basic services. The country’s infrastructure has been heavily damaged, with over one-fourth of the housing stock in ten of Syria’s largest cities partially or destroyed by 2017.
Host Country Perspectives
The influx of Syrian refugees has placed significant strain on host countries, particularly Lebanon and Jordan. In Lebanon, there are concerns about disrupting the country’s delicate sectarian balance, while Jordan faces demographic worries about East Bank Jordanians becoming a minority. These tensions have sometimes led to xenophobic rhetoric and policies aimed at encouraging refugee returns.
The international community’s response has primarily focused on humanitarian aid and containment, with efforts to stem the flow of refugees toward Europe taking priority over addressing the conflict’s root causes. However, the assistance provided to Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey is insufficient to address the long-term needs of both refugees and host communities.
Peace negotiations, including the UN-sponsored Geneva process and the Astana talks, have failed to adequately account for refugees’ concerns and conditions for return. Both frameworks mistakenly assume that refugees will return as soon as a peace deal is signed, overlooking the complex realities on the ground.
GDP Losses:
- Cumulative GDP losses from 2011-2016: $226 billion
- Equivalent to four times Syria’s GDP in 2010
Reconstruction Costs:
- Estimated between $100-$200 billion by the IMF
Economic Impact on Syria
The conflict has had a devastating economic impact on Syria. The World Bank estimates cumulative GDP losses of $226 billion from 2011-2016, about four times the country’s GDP in 2010. The International Monetary Fund projects reconstruction costs between $100-$200 billion. This economic devastation further complicates the prospect of large-scale refugee returns.
Conclusion
The Syrian refugee crisis remains a complex and multifaceted issue with no easy solutions. As host countries struggle to manage the influx of refugees and Syria continues to face significant challenges, the international community must work towards sustainable, long-term solutions. These should prioritize the safety and well-being of displaced Syrians while also addressing the concerns of host countries. A comprehensive approach that goes beyond containment and considers the root causes of the conflict is essential for any lasting resolution. Until then, millions of Syrians will continue to face an uncertain future, caught between the challenges of life as refugees and the dangers of returning to a homeland still in turmoil.
