India has recently made an offer to mediate peace in Myanmar. The offer comes as the country’s civil war intensifies, threatening regional stability. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had a meeting with Myanmar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Shwe, where the offer was made. With multiple armed groups vying for control and a worsening humanitarian crisis, India’s diplomatic move aims to for a solution to the ever-intensifying civil conflict.
You can also read: Chabahar: Opportunities and challenges for India in Iran deal
However, the timing raises questions about its potential impact in a conflict where power has splintered among various factions. As Myanmar teeters on the edge of collapse, the consequences extend beyond its borders, potentially sparking a major refugee crisis in neighboring countries like India and Bangladesh.
What’s Been Happening in Myanmar
Myanmar has been engulfed in civil war since the military seized power in February 2021. The conflict has escalated as ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces resist the junta’s rule. Over a million people have been displaced internally, with thousands killed or injured.
The military’s brutal crackdown on opposition has drawn widespread international condemnation and sanctions. Attempts to restore civilian governance have met fierce resistance, deepening the crisis. Aid organizations report critical shortages of food, medicine, and basic necessities in conflict zones.
The UN has called the situation a humanitarian catastrophe, urging global action. Myanmar’s instability is sending shockwaves through the region, affecting neighboring countries.
India’s Interest in Myanmar
India’s involvement in Myanmar is driven by strategic considerations rather than pure altruism. As Myanmar’s largest neighbor, India seeks to counter China’s growing regional influence.
Myanmar is crucial for India’s trade initiatives, such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway. These projects aim to boost trade links and access to Southeast Asia, strengthening India’s economic position.
Myanmar’s stability is also vital for India’s security, particularly in curbing insurgent activities along their shared border. India sees a stable Myanmar as key to regional security against threats like terrorism and drug trafficking.
India’s approach includes diplomatic efforts to support Myanmar’s democratic transition. Despite international criticism of Myanmar’s military regime, India has maintained a pragmatic stance, balancing pressure with engagement.
India’s recent mediation offer reflects its role as a regional stakeholder with vested interests in Myanmar’s stability. However, Myanmar’s complex internal dynamics and the military’s entrenched power pose significant challenges to lasting peace and democratic governance.
The Offer to Mediate Might Be Too Late
India’s proposal to mediate in Myanmar’s conflict comes as violence escalates and factions splinter. The civil war has intensified since the 2021 military coup { Figure 1}, with armed groups gaining control over various regions.
International peace efforts have struggled to gain traction as violence persists and humanitarian conditions worsen. India’s mediation offer faces skepticism due to the entrenched positions of Myanmar’s military junta and the diverse agendas of ethnic armed groups. The delay in international intervention has allowed the conflict to worsen, making a comprehensive peace agreement increasingly difficult.
As Myanmar descends further into chaos, the impact of external mediation efforts diminishes, casting doubt on their ability to resolve the crisis. Myanmar’s complex political landscape, compounded by regional power dynamics and historical grievances, complicates any quick resolution.
India’s initiative may face resistance from parties unwilling to negotiate amid ongoing hostilities and escalating humanitarian needs. The urgency to stabilize Myanmar and prevent further regional destabilization underscores the challenges ahead for effective mediation efforts.
On the Brink of Collapse
Myanmar faces a critical moment with mounting challenges that could lead to its downfall. The 2021 military coup sparked widespread unrest and resistance across the country. Escalating violence between the military and ethnic armed groups has plunged Myanmar into deepening political and humanitarian crises.
The junta’s crackdown on dissent has provoked international condemnation and sanctions, worsening economic hardships. Amid this turmoil, governance has faltered, leaving institutions weakened and social cohesion fractured.
The worsening humanitarian situation, coupled with a stalled political transition, has pushed Myanmar closer to the edge. Regional stability hangs in the balance as neighboring countries brace for potential consequences, including refugee influxes and cross-border instability. Efforts to restore peace and democratic governance face significant obstacles amid entrenched power struggles and escalating violence.
A Looming Refugee Crisis
Myanmar’s collapse could trigger a massive refugee crisis across Southeast Asia. Neighboring countries like India, Bangladesh, and Thailand are likely to bear the brunt of this influx. The UN and aid organizations anticipate millions fleeing violence, persecution, and economic instability. Bangladesh already hosts nearly a million Rohingya refugees {Figure 2}; a total collapse might create a fresh surge of refugees.
Such a crisis would strain resources and infrastructure, exacerbating regional tensions and security concerns. Myanmar’s collapse could destabilize the entire region, impacting economies and political stability beyond its borders. Managing and supporting displaced populations would require coordinated international assistance and cooperation.
Speculative Analysis
India’s offer to mediate in Myanmar reflects strategic interests in countering China’s influence and promoting regional stability. By engaging diplomatically, India aims to safeguard its economic and security interests in Myanmar.
China is Myanmar’s biggest arms supplier {Figure 3}, followed closely by Russia. This approach may also be an attempt to “test the waters” of possible Indian arms sales to Myanmar, something India had succeeded to do in Armenia. Both Armenia and Myanmar are in a similar situation where both are desperate for weapons and India has a decent track record in its production of weapons systems.
The initiative also seeks to mitigate potential spillover effects, including a refugee crisis in neighboring countries like India and Bangladesh. However, India faces challenges in navigating Myanmar’s complex internal dynamics and the entrenched power of its military junta.
Conclusion
India’s offer to mediate in Myanmar highlights its strategic interests in regional stability and countering China’s influence. The complex dynamics of Myanmar’s civil war and humanitarian crisis present formidable challenges to achieving lasting peace. The international community’s response will be crucial in addressing Myanmar’s deepening turmoil and preventing further destabilization in Southeast Asia.
India’s diplomatic initiative reflects its role as a regional stakeholder, balancing engagement and strategic interests amid Myanmar’s evolving political landscape. The path forward requires continued international cooperation and diplomatic efforts to support Myanmar’s transition towards peace and democratic governance.
