New Zealand’s political landscape saw a dramatic shift as voters cast their verdict in the wake of former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s unexpected resignation. In the aftermath of a campaign dominated by concerns over the escalating cost of living, the country swayed decisively to the right, ending the Labour Party’s six-year rule. This period had been marked by the government’s unwavering response to the pandemic, effectively containing the virus but grappling with economic repercussions.
As the ballot count reached over 98%, the National Party, led by the former airline executive Christopher Luxon, surged ahead with approximately 40% of the votes, as confirmed by New Zealand’s Electoral Commission. Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, dejected and disheartened, delivered the harsh reality to his supporters, conceding that Labour lacked the mandate to form the government.
National Party emerges as front runner
In the 2023 election, the National Party secured 38.99% of the party vote, resulting in 50 seats. Out of these, 45 were electorate seats, and the remaining 5 were list seats. The Labour Party, led by Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, achieved 26.85% of the party vote and secured 17 electorate seats, totaling 34 seats.
The Green Party obtained 10.78% of the party vote, earning three electorate seats and a total of 14 seats. ACT New Zealand secured 9.00% of the party vote, along with two electorate seats, resulting in 11 seats. The New Zealand First Party, despite falling short of the 5% threshold, managed to secure eight seats, while Te Pāti Māori gained four seats, marking their return to Parliament after a one-term absence.
Preliminary results are based on 2,244,380 ordinary votes cast on election day. However, the anticipation remains high due to an estimated 567,000 special declaration votes, constituting approximately 20.2% of the total votes. This includes around 80,000 overseas and dictation votes. In the 2020 election, 504,621 special votes were counted, featuring 62,787 overseas and dictation votes. Considering the total estimated votes, which encompasses both those counted on election night and the projected special votes, the number reaches 2,811,380. The voter turnout for the 2023 General Election is estimated at a robust 78.4% of those enrolled as of October 14, slightly lower than the 82.2% turnout in 2020.
MMP system: Unraveling the dynamics of election
In the election, New Zealand voters elected 120 members to the unicameral New Zealand House of Representatives, employing the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system. This system in New Zealand provides voters with two ballots: one for a candidate in their local constituency and another for the party. To secure a seat in parliament, a party must garner at least 5% of the vote or have a winning candidate in a constituency.
To form a government, a party or coalition must secure 61 out of the 120 seats in New Zealand’s single-house parliament, representing approximately 48% of the popular vote.
The final official results, expected about three weeks after the election, will provide the conclusive verdict on this pivotal moment in New Zealand’s political landscape.
This proportional representation system allocated 71 members from single-member electorates and 49 members from closed party lists, ensuring fair representation.
Notably, the electoral landscape saw 72 electorates in play, with the fate of the remaining electorate MP to be determined in the 2023 Port Waikato by-election. Regrettably, this particular electorate’s election was canceled following the untimely death of one of the candidates, necessitating a by-election at a later date. This occurrence marks a rare event in New Zealand’s electoral history, as it’s the first time since the 1957 election that an electorate vote has been postponed due to a candidate’s passing. Furthermore, due to the acquisition of an additional overhang seat during the main election, the total number of parliamentarians will rise to 122 upon completion of the by-election.
National Party’s 100-day agenda:
- Focus on wide-ranging tax cuts, including the reduction of regional fuel taxes.
- Recalibrate the Reserve Bank’s mandate to prioritize inflation.
- Eliminate perceived business impediments.
- Expand access to breast cancer screenings.
- Intensify crime control measures.
- Grant enhanced search powers to the police when dealing with gang members.
- Roll back a series of policies enacted by the Labour government over the past six years.
Christopher Luxon’s Profile:
- A seasoned businessman and former CEO of Air New Zealand.
- Took on the leadership of the National Party in 2021.
- Previously served as a party spokesman for various government departments and participated in several select committees.
Labour Party’s policies:
- Extend free dental care to individuals under 30.
- Mitigate the impact of rising food prices by exempting fruit and vegetables from the goods and services tax.
- Introduce financial literacy education in schools.
- Expand free early education.
- Extend financial assistance to working families.
Chris Hipkins’s Achievement:
- Led the nation’s Covid-19 response in 2020.
- Held key roles as Minister of Education, Minister of Police, Minister for the Public Service, and Leader of the House.
- Faced an unexpected setback with a positive Covid-19 diagnosis just two weeks prior to the election, which forced him off the campaign trail for five critical days.
The dawn of a fresh chapter
In the wake of the recent election results, both Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon addressed the nation. Hipkins, the leader of the Labour Party, expressed disappointment, acknowledging the electoral outcome was not as desired. Luxon, the leader of the National Party, highlighted that New Zealanders voted for change, positioning his party to work toward forming a new coalition government.
New Zealand’s political landscape has been characterized by coalition governments since the adoption of the mixed-member proportional system in 1996. Smaller parties, such as NZ First and the Act Party, have played crucial roles in shaping these coalition administrations. The exception to this trend was the Labour Party’s sweeping majority in 2020, led by Jacinda Ardern’s pandemic response. However, her resignation earlier in the year marked a turning point, leaving Chris Hipkins to navigate the changing political landscape.
Ardern’s international reputation as a progressive leader was built on her compassionate response to crises, contrasting with populist trends in Western democracies. However, domestically, her popularity waned due to rising living costs, housing shortages, economic uncertainty, and anti-lockdown protests. Hipkins inherited these challenges, compounded by a sluggish economy, high inflation at 6%, and fiscal concerns raised by credit rating agencies.
The election signals a new chapter in New Zealand’s political history as the nation charts a course towards a different future, potentially through a coalition government, given the country’s electoral landscape.
