If India’s influence remains dominant in US policymaking, Bangladesh may find itself navigating diplomatic challenges
The upcoming meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump has sparked speculation about whether Bangladesh will be a key topic of discussion. Given the recent political tensions in Bangladesh, the evolving regional dynamics, and Trump’s foreign policy approach, this meeting could significantly impact US-Bangladesh relations. With growing concerns over democracy, trade policies, and regional security, the direction of US-Bangladesh ties under Trump’s second term remains uncertain.
Bangladesh in Trump-Modi Talks: Key Considerations
Sheikh Hasina’s Asylum, Border Tensions and Dhanmondi 32 Demolition
Tensions between Bangladesh and India have escalated following India’s decision to provide refuge to ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. This, coupled with India’s Border Security Force (BSF) fortifying border areas, has strained relations. While diplomatic interventions have temporarily eased tensions, underlying issues persist. If Modi raises Bangladesh’s political situation with Trump, it may signal a shift in India’s regional priorities and a potential recalibration of US involvement in South Asia.
Narendra Modi is set to visit the U.S. on February 12. When asked whether Modi would bring up Bangladesh during his meeting with Trump, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told reporters that the “Bangladesh issue might come up” during the upcoming Trump-Modi summit. Notably, this will be their first meeting in Trump’s second term.
Misri stated, “I am not sure whether Bangladesh will be discussed, but it could come up.” He further added, “There will be discussions on regional and international situations, but it is difficult to predict whether any specific issue will be raised.”
The situation further intensified following Sheikh Hasina’s online speech, which sparked protests and led to the attack on Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s house in Dhanmondi 32. The incident has not only deepened political unrest within Bangladesh but also raised concerns in India and among Western allies. As both nations summoned each other’s ambassadors, the diplomatic standoff has underlined the fragile nature of India-Bangladesh ties. Modi’s discussion with Trump on this matter could have significant implications for regional stability and US engagement in South Asia.
India’s Role in US-Bangladesh Relations
Historically, the United States has often viewed Bangladesh through India’s geopolitical lens. If Modi discusses Bangladesh with Trump, it could reinforce India’s influence over US policy in the region. However, the Biden administration had maintained a more independent stance, supporting democratic governance in Bangladesh and engaging with the interim government under Muhammad Yunus. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy may lead to a shift, potentially prioritizing India’s strategic concerns over direct engagement with Dhaka.
US-Bangladesh Relations Under Trump 2.0
Economic Implications
Trump’s return to office brings potential trade and investment challenges for Bangladesh. During his first term, Trump pursued a protectionist trade policy, imposing tariffs and renegotiating trade deals. Given that the United States is the largest importer of Bangladesh’s ready-made garments (RMG), any tariff increases or trade restrictions could negatively impact Bangladesh’s economy. However, escalating US-China trade tensions may create an opportunity for Bangladesh to expand its exports if Chinese products face additional tariffs.
Strategic and Security Cooperation
As the US refocuses on countering China in the Indo-Pacific region, Bangladesh’s strategic significance may grow. Trump’s previous administration emphasized strengthening ties with key Indo-Pacific allies, and Bangladesh, given its geostrategic location, could benefit from increased engagement. However, if the US aligns more closely with India’s security perspective, Bangladesh’s independent foreign policy stance may face pressure.
Challenges for Bangladesh
US Immigration and Remittances
The United States is a major source of remittances for Bangladesh, with thousands of Bangladeshi immigrants contributing to the country’s economy. Trump’s strong stance on immigration during his first term resulted in strict policies, and a repeat of such measures could negatively impact Bangladeshi migration and remittance flows.
Human Rights and Rohingya Crisis
The US has been the largest contributor of humanitarian aid to the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. However, Trump’s skepticism toward international aid programs suggests that funding for the Rohingya crisis may decline, increasing Bangladesh’s burden in managing the refugee population.
Climate Change and Environmental Policies
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change and relies on international assistance for climate adaptation. Trump’s previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and his denial of climate change could lead to reduced US support for Bangladesh’s climate resilience programs.
Conclusion The upcoming Trump-Modi meeting could shape the trajectory of US-Bangladesh relations. If India’s influence remains dominant in US policymaking, Bangladesh may find itself navigating diplomatic challenges. While economic and strategic cooperation with the US remains crucial for Bangladesh, Trump’s return introduces uncertainties, particularly regarding trade, immigration, and climate policy. Dhaka must engage in skillful diplomacy to maintain balanced relations with both Washington and New Delhi while safeguarding its national interests
