Trump confidently claimed he could resolve the conflict “within 24 hours” of taking office, highlighting his ability to broker a peace deal between the two nations
As of January 2025, the Ukraine war remains an ongoing and deeply intricate conflict with far-reaching global consequences. The fighting has caused devastating loss of life, mass displacement of people, and a tense geopolitical standoff between Russia and the West. Despite repeated attempts at peace negotiations, a resolution remains elusive. This article delves into potential ways the conflict could conclude and the significant challenges to achieving lasting peace.
Possible Scenarios for Ending the War
A Negotiated Settlement: A diplomatic resolution holds promise but remains difficult to achieve. Efforts to negotiate between Ukraine and Russia have often stalled, with multiple rounds of talks failing to produce lasting agreements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed a peace plan that includes territorial compromises and guarantees of sovereignty, paired with security assurances and a path to NATO membership. However, Russia’s demand to retain control of annexed regions Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia and Ukraine’s pursuit of NATO integration create significant friction. Resolving this scenario would require major concessions from both sides, but the lack of flexibility from Russia makes progress challenging.
A Frozen Conflict: Another plausible outcome is a frozen conflict, where both sides agree to a ceasefire that locks in the current frontlines without reaching a definitive resolution. This would reduce active violence but leave critical issues unresolved, such as territorial disputes and the status of displaced populations. Similar outcomes have occurred in other post-Soviet states, including Georgia and Moldova. While a frozen conflict might halt combat temporarily, it risks perpetuating a divided Ukraine and prolonging humanitarian and economic struggles for its citizens.
Decisive Military Victory: A clear military victory by either side appears increasingly unlikely due to the current balance of forces. The conflict has dragged on, causing immense casualties on both sides and drawing significant international involvement. Ukraine, supported by Western military aid, has regained considerable territory. However, Russia’s strong military capabilities continue to present a formidable obstacle.
President-elect Donald Trump’s Commitment to Peace
As of January 2025, President-elect Donald Trump has reaffirmed his pledge to bring an end to the Ukraine-Russia war quickly. Throughout his campaign, Trump confidently claimed he could resolve the conflict “within 24 hours” of taking office, highlighting his ability to broker a peace deal between the two nations.
Trump’s Proposed Strategic plan for peace centers around three key points:
- Immediate Ceasefire and Peace Talks: He proposes an immediate ceasefire along the current battle lines, urging both Russia and Ukraine to negotiate a lasting peace.
- Delayed NATO Membership: To address Russia’s security concerns, Trump suggests deferring Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years.
- European Leadership in Peacekeeping: He envisions European nations, including the UK, Germany, and France, deploying troops to oversee the ceasefire and maintain stability, thereby easing the burden on U.S. forces.
Key Challenges to Achieving Peace
Despite the outlined pathways, significant barriers to ending the war remain:
Geopolitical Complexity: The involvement of international powers adds layers of complication to the conflict. Western countries, including the U.S. and EU members, have provided substantial financial and military aid to Ukraine. Conversely, Russia has solidified alliances with nations like China and sought to expand its global influence.
Countries like India and Brazil often maintain neutrality, reflecting the fragmented global stance on the conflict. Moreover, Trump’s re-election could shift the dynamics of international support for Ukraine, further complicating the peace process.
Territorial Disputes: One of the biggest sticking points in peace negotiations is Russia’s annexation of key Ukrainian territories. Ukraine insists on maintaining its full territorial integrity, while Russia demands that these regions be officially recognized as part of its own territory. Reaching a negotiated settlement would involve making difficult compromises on both sides, but any agreement that cedes Ukrainian land to Russia is unlikely to receive public support in Ukraine. For many Ukrainians, the stakes are too high, as the issue touches on national sovereignty and the future of their homeland.
Humanitarian Impact: The war has brought tremendous suffering to Ukraine’s people. Millions have been forced to flee their homes, and countless lives have been lost or shattered by injuries. Even if the fighting were to stop today, the scars left behind both physical and emotional would take years to heal. Destroyed infrastructure, from homes to hospitals, adds to the challenges of rebuilding. For displaced families, refugees, and those trying to rebuild their lives, international aid and support will be critical. A peaceful and stable political environment will also be necessary to pave the way for Ukraine’s recovery and long-term development.
Internal Divisions: Within Ukraine, opinions on how to end the war are deeply divided. While many Ukrainians demand a tough stance against Russia, others advocate for diplomacy and a shift toward rebuilding the nation. These differing viewpoints make the peace process even more complicated. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership has faced criticism from some factions who feel that the war has dragged on for too long at too high a cost. Balancing military objectives with the public’s call for resolution is an ongoing challenge for the government.
Conclusion
Achieving peace in Ukraine is a daunting task. Whether through a negotiated settlement, a frozen conflict, or a military victory, each option comes with its own set of risks and challenges. The geopolitical complexities, territorial disputes, humanitarian crises, and internal divisions make finding a resolution incredibly difficult.
The global community must continue its efforts to support diplomatic solutions, ensuring that Ukraine’s sovereignty and the well-being of its people remain central to any peace agreement. Until these issues are resolved, a lasting peace in Ukraine will remain an uncertain and distant goal.
