With barely few days left for the 5 November US election, the world is watching in nervous anticipation as America votes to select Joe Biden’s successor as the next president of the world’s biggest economy.
The Americans’ choice of their next leader will have global ramifications, with the 2024 US election taking place at a crucial time – two big wars are raging in Europe and the Middle East, and the Western-led international order is facing challenges from emerging economies seeking a new, more balanced world order.
These developments, as much as the election, are compelling changes in how different regions anticipate what the new US government would mean for them.
For South Asia, a critical area of focus for the US, this translates into whether the region will see a reset or continuity in US policy. The region holds immense promise for the next US government, and experts feel each South Asian country itself is key to the US seeking to balance out China’s growing influence in the region.
Afghanistan
Afghanistan came into focus in recent weeks in the election campaigns of both US presidential contenders, Donald Trump from the Republican Party, and Kamala Harris, representing the Democrats.
Both Trump and Harris traded blame over the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, and the evacuation of Afghans who fled the country to escape the Taliban.
This year, as the Taliban completes three years of rule, Trump has targeted Harris for the “disastrous withdrawal” in 2021, when a Taliban bombing killed 13 US troops at Kabul Airport. Harris, in turn, has criticized Trump for signing a deal with the Taliban in 2020 to “downsize US troops to zero”.
However, according to Dr. Suvrokamal Dutta, acclaimed international conservative political, economic, and foreign policy expert, either Trump or Harris win wouldn’t make much difference to the US foreign policy towards Afghanistan.
Speaking exclusively to PressXpress, Dr Dutta said, “The American withdrawal from Afghanistan was a disaster. Now, Taliban is very deep-rooted in Afghanistan and any new US government would not consider doing much now.”
“Their focus would be more domestic, concerning the new US administration’s approach towards the displaced Afghans living there,” Dr Dutta told PressXpress.
It is the fate of the Afghans who fled to the US during the 2021 chaos, says Idean Salehyan, Professor of Political Science at the University of North Texas. “Many of the Afghans who fled in 2021 went to Iran, Pakistan, and other nearby countries,” Salehyan explains. “But those who came to the US, are still living in a legal limbo.”
There are around 70,000 Afghans living legally – but temporarily – in the US.
“If Kamala Harris wins office, she is likely to renew parole for Afghans (like Biden did earlier in 2023)… But what Trump might do about Afghans living in the US is an open question. Trump’s previous presidential term curbed immigration, slashed refugee admissions, and made it harder to issue US visas to Afghans,” says Salehyan in an article in The Conversation.
On the campaign trail, Trump has promised to renew his travel ban on Muslims and to continue to limit immigration to the US.
The fate of the Afghans living in the US would also translate directly or indirectly to the larger US approach towards the Taliban and foreign policy for Afghanistan.
Pakistan
A deep economic crisis is pushing Pakistan into an intense struggle to stay stable and secure. Therefore, for Pakistan, the stakes are high, and the implications, are profound.
Both Trump and Harris have divergent foreign policy directions, decisively shaping US-Pakistan relations in the future, especially in trade and security.
As a significant investor, the US is vital to Pakistan’s financial stability, especially as Pakistan grapples with inflation, debt, and the long recovery from the 2022 floods.
Trump, in his first term as president (2017-21), had cut $1.3 billion in security aid, accusing Pakistan of harboring militant groups. Trump’s deepening ties with India through the Quad alliance have also distanced Pakistan, positioning New Delhi as Washington’s preferred partner in South Asia.
“If Trump returns to office in 2024, the implications for Pakistan will be multifaceted,” says geopolitical analyst Waqar Rizvi. “Trump’s second term could sustain pressure on Pakistan, particularly regarding its ties with China,” Rizvi writes in a report for the Friedrich-Naumann Foundation.
In contrast, a Harris win would offer a more stable approach to US-Pakistan relations.
“Things would be better for Pakistan if Harris wins,” adds Dr Dutta, comparing Harris to Trump. “She (Harris) has been liberal in her policies, while Trump would be very orthodox… Pakistan wouldn’t have a good presence in the US policy framework if Trump is elected. He is much opposed to terror outfits walking on the soil of Pakistan.”
However, other experts feel that Harris’ Indian heritage could also raise concerns in Pakistan, especially that she would lean more towards India. Pakistan needs to be diplomatically agile in reacting to the results, and balancing a Trump or Harris government while continuing its close ties with China, they pointed out.
India
A key US ally, India is watching the election closely and assessing the potential impact of a Trump or Harris presidency, on trade, defense, and other bilateral issues.
India is in a fortunate place, believes Meera Shankar, former Indian ambassador to the US. Both the Republicans and the Democrats want to “build a relationship with India”, Shankar said in an interview with DW News.
However, the policy differences between the Trump and Harris administrations on trade, interest rates, immigration, and healthcare, would have their economic ripple effects in India, analysts feel.
According to an analysis by JM Financial Institutional Securities, Harris’ win will come with a more accommodating stance by the US Federal Reserve, and it will push the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ease rates domestically. On the other hand, Trump’s stance on China is expected to further open up the US market for Indian exports. It will potentially offset the tariffs India faces, benefitting the country, the report mentions.
“Actually, Trump would do things, which are music for the Indian establishment,” Dr Dutta told PressXpress. He explained that Trump is more positive and less hostile in his approach towards regional power dynamics and is more neutral when it comes to Russia or China, which would be beneficial for India and the entire South Asia region.
“Besides, the two leaders, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, enjoy a good personal relationship, which will help elevate bilateral engagements,” Dr Dutta added.
Despite political transitions in the US, its relationship with India has grown both from a bilateral perspective with strong defense and trade ties as well as from definable shared interests in the Indo-Pacific.
US and India have also worked together more closely within the Quad (US, Australia, India, Japan bloc), while border issues with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) have propelled India to form closer cooperation with the US while positioning itself as an alternative to China in South Asia as well as the larger Global South.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh has experienced a lot of turmoil in 2024, impacting South Asia to undergo a change in regional dynamics and power relations. The US has been closely observing the developments.
But a post-Sheikh Hasina Bangladesh highlights the undercurrent of disagreement between the interests of India and the US in this regard, Dr Dutta tells PressXpress.
The nature of Washington’s approach would depend heavily on whether a Democratic or Republican administration is in power.
“Biden’s administration has been extremely hostile in relation to Indian foreign policy interests concerning Bangladesh,” Dr Dutta says. “There has been chatter that certain US agencies covertly orchestrated the turmoil in Bangladesh, and therefore if Harris wins, this policy to set up regimes in South Asian countries just might get more indirect push.”
Dr Dutta elaborated to PressXpress: “A Trump win would be hostile to the present Bangladesh regime. Trump recently brought up the issue of minority community killings there and talked about it openly… Therefore, a Trump presidency would make the US-India partnership work closely to ensure stability in South Asia, and I am not ruling out quick elections in Bangladesh and the political return of Hasina.”
Whether it is Harris or Trump, the post-US election scenario would drastically change the political situation in Bangladesh, impacting the regional power play in South Asia, Dr Dutta observed.
But Vivek Mishra of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) disagrees.
In his analysis jointly written with Farwa Aamer, Mishra argues that a Republican-led government, particularly one akin to the Trump administration, would “likely take a more cautious approach toward Bangladesh, placing less emphasis on the promotion of democracy and more on safeguarding US strategic interests.”
Rest of South Asia
Within the rest of South Asia, the new US administration’s approach is likely to remain the same, driven mostly by China’s increasing influence in the region.
“Nepal and Sri Lanka may receive more attention from an Indo-Pacific strategy perspective from Washington, underscoring the China angle,” writes Mishra in his analysis. “While Nepal is strategically located at a geopolitical crossroads, the US has also focused on Sri Lanka, supporting post-conflict reconciliation, democratic governance, and economic development to strengthen its sovereignty and reduce its dependency on Chinese investments.”
Stability in South Asia is crucial to US interests in the Indo-Pacific. Experts feel that in the coming four years of the new US administration, the focus must be to maintain this stability while pushing growth.
India would become a key player to enhance US engagement in this region as American and Indian interests would coincide well, according to Dr Dutta.
An enhanced US engagement in economy, strategy, growth, and security would benefit everyone, says Mishra.
Any administration in Washington must recognize that a one-size-fits-all South Asia strategy is challenging to implement.
“The region’s complexity, marked by fractured political landscapes, diverse economies, and often conflicting interests, necessitates a more nuanced and tailored approach,” Mishra says.
