Despite a record surge in renewable energy investment last year, current global plans will fulfill only half of the renewable energy capacity needed by 2030, falling short of the COP28 pledge, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
A joint report from IRENA, the COP28, COP29, and COP30 host Brazil, along with the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA), delivers a sobering review of progress made toward the UAE Consensus goal, which aims to triple renewable energy generation by the end of the decade.
The report was released during the final ministerial meeting ahead of the upcoming United Nations climate summit, COP29, scheduled to take place next month in Azerbaijan. IRENA estimates that achieving these ambitious targets would require over $30 trillion in investments within the next six years. At last year’s COP28 summit, nations committed to tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency efforts by 2030, but the latest findings indicate a substantial gap.
Investment in renewables reached a record $570 billion last year, yet the target requires a staggering $1.5 trillion annually. Energy efficiency measures, too, need a sevenfold increase from last year’s $323 million to hit $2.2 trillion per year. Overall, meeting the COP28 goals calls for a cumulative investment of $31.5 trillion by 2030.
The IRENA report also emphasizes that most of last year’s renewable investments—84 percent—were concentrated in the EU, China, and the United States. Countries like India and Brazil accounted for about 6 percent, while investment in Africa was minimal and even decreased by half between 2022 and 2023.
The report warns that significant policy shifts and an unprecedented surge in investment are critical to bridging the gap. IRENA stresses the need for streamlined permitting processes and modernized power grids. The world’s renewable energy capacity would need to increase from 3.9 terawatts (TW) today to 11.2 TW by 2030 to meet the target. However, current national plans project only a 3.5 TW increase, totaling 7.4 TW by 2030—well short of the goal. According to submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, growth could be even weaker, reaching just 5.4 TW.
Solar Energy Expanding
Only solar energy is expanding at the necessary pace, while onshore wind needs to triple, offshore wind and bioenergy need to increase sixfold, and geothermal capacity must grow at a 35-fold pace. The report also highlights that energy-saving measures have seen limited progress, with electrification and efficiency enhancements in vehicles and buildings lagging behind.
At COP29, countries are expected to discuss a new financial target to support climate action, with developing nations pushing for an increase in funding commitments. Proposals for this new target range up to $1.3 trillion, with developed nations calling for private sector involvement and emerging economies to contribute. IRENA underscores that a significant scale-up in both public and private financing is necessary, particularly for developing countries.
As world leaders prepare for COP29, IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera urged for immediate action, noting that without significant progress on renewable and energy efficiency targets, achieving the global climate goals set in the Paris Agreement remains unlikely. COP28 President and ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber echoed these sentiments, calling for more robust commitments in the upcoming NDCs and enhanced incentives for private investment.
The tripling renewable energy target—part of the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge established at COP28—aims to boost global renewable capacity to at least 11,000 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. However, the current trajectory points to a shortfall, largely due to challenges such as project permit delays, insufficient grid infrastructure, and high financing costs.
