As the Arctic ice retreats, unveiling new pathways for trade and access to untapped natural resources, the region is increasingly seen not just as a barometer of climate change but also as a chessboard for geopolitical power plays and energy security strategies. Nations with Arctic borders and global powers alike are recalibrating their policies and military strategies to navigate this new cold rush.
The Arctic region is increasingly coveted for its natural resources and strategic location. The melting of the Arctic ice cover has made the area more accessible to shipping as well as oil and gas extraction, making it increasingly sought after by bordering and distant countries, including China. It is no secret Russia has made the development of the region’s natural resources a priority, while Norway estimates that the Barents Sea holds more than 60 percent of the country’s untapped oil reserves.
Leading edge of climate change
The Arctic is on the frontlines of a changing climate and is fundamentally essential to the regulation of the Earth’s fragile ecosystem. It even provides researchers with the means to almost predict the effects of climate change through polar amplification—the phenomenon where changes to our climate tend to produce more extensive changes near the poles than the planetary average—showing what the future will hold. The increased melting of Arctic sea ice and snow allows the darker ocean and land surface to be increasingly exposed, making it less reflective of the sun’s light, causing the Earth to warm further and faster. The continued loss of ice from Arctic landmasses compounds sea level rise and could affect the currents of the oceans and atmosphere on a global scale, with potentially devastating consequences, even to populations living far away from the Arctic.
Significant reserves of oil and gas
With the continued loss of sea ice and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the Arctic is also becoming more accessible, allowing states to reach the abundance of natural resources in the region, including large deposits of valuable minerals and fossil fuels, the mining and use of which could further contribute to global warming. The Arctic presents the world’s new “El Dorado” of still attainable natural resources, with an estimated 90 billion barrels of oil (16 percent of global total), 1,669 trillion cubic feet of gas (30 percent), and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids (38 percent). But the Arctic’s importance goes beyond just a pool of natural resources creating intense global competition between Arctic powers and near-Arctic powers to have access to these resources.
New frontier for renewables
In addition to new sources of fossil fuels, the Arctic matters because it is a new energy frontier, for clean energy. From wind, solar, and marine turbines, to advances in battery efficiency, the Arctic is the perfect incubator for clean energy. In the fight against climate change, the international community should take every advantage it can to make progress on clean energy technology, and this also includes nuclear. With increasing energy demand, small modular reactors could be deployed in the Arctic. If it can work in the Arctic, powering remote communities in harsh conditions, why not expand it to the rest of the world?
New shipping routes
The effects of climate change are also exposing new shipping routes, such as the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage, previously almost impassable due to Arctic ice. The new routes can cause seismic shifts in the global economy due to reduced shipping times and radically altered routes that no longer depend on global choke points such as the Suez and Panama Canals. Protecting, and potentially controlling, these routes and the resources beneath them has led Arctic nations to solidify their presence and secure their territorial claims in the region. Minimizing international competition through the Arctic Council is crucial to safely accessing the opportunities within the Arctic and to preserving regional stability, given the many competing claims and policies in the region. These may lead to conflict both within and beyond the area if not resolved through the acceptance and rule of international law or by diplomatic means.
Competition for Arctic resources
Competition for Arctic resources, particularly critical minerals and natural gas, is shaping geopolitics in the region, but direct military confrontation over resources has not yet materialized. Economic tensions in the Arctic today are largely manifesting from China’s investments in the region, Russia’s commercial partnerships and militarization, and territorial disputes. China invested $450 billion in the Arctic from 2012 through 2017, across all of the Arctic nations. Chinese investment is driving development of the Northern Sea Route, for both shipping and submarine Internet connectivity. In addition to creating stronger commercial ties between China and Russia, this development would strengthen Russia’s claim of sovereign control over the NSR, which the U.S. still disputes. The Arctic’s geographic position among the U.S., Russia, and Europe makes it a de facto location for competition to play out among these powers, and Russia’s and China’s investment ambitions are making the region a focal point of competition between great powers.
Hotbed for geopolitical confrontations
Melting sea ice is enabling increased access to the Arctic’s abundant natural resources, with tensions growing over the control of Arctic waters and major commercial implications—particularly for shipping routes and future digital connectivity. Additionally, the Arctic’s geographic position among Europe, the U.S., and Russia makes it susceptible to geopolitical confrontations among nations, sparked by events outside of the region. While the Arctic has been a region of international cooperation and peace in recent decades, increased U.S. and Chinese involvement in the region could upset this balance. The U.S. is likely to continue pushing back against China’s increased presence and against Russia’s assertion of control over the NSR and its military buildup. While European nations have been split on accepting Chinese investment, with economic and geopolitical considerations differing across countries, to date they have largely not opposed Russian economic development in the region. However, Russia’s increasing military presence has pushed Europe to begin collaborating with NATO allies to counter military activity in the Arctic. Russia’s military buildup presents one of the greater challenges facing the region, and militarization of the Arctic is likely to increase tensions in the region more quickly than competition over resources.
