Austria is set to vote in a general election on Sunday (September 29), with the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) poised to make history by potentially securing the most votes. Led by Herbert Kickl, the FPÖ is edging ahead of the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) in the polls, while the Social Democrats (SPÖ) trail in third place.
If the FPÖ does top the election, it would mark the first time in its history the far-right party leads the vote. However, no party is expected to win an outright majority, meaning coalition negotiations will likely be necessary to form a government.
The FPÖ has mounted a remarkable comeback since its ousting from the coalition government with the ÖVP five years ago. The fallout from the 2019 Ibiza-gate scandal, which exposed party corruption, seemed to cripple the FPÖ, but under Kickl’s leadership, it has clawed its way back into the spotlight. Polls show the FPÖ consistently around 27%, leading the ÖVP by a margin of one to two points.
Kickl’s party has tapped into voter concerns on key issues such as immigration, and rising inflation. The party’s messaging has also capitalized on discontent surrounding the war in Ukraine, with the FPÖ advocating for Austria to maintain its traditional stance of neutrality. In campaign videos, Kickl promises to restore “freedom, security, prosperity, and peace” to Austria, framing himself as a “Volkskanzler” (people’s chancellor). However, this term, historically associated with Adolf Hitler, has raised alarm for many Austrians. The FPÖ’s Nazi-linked origins continue to fuel opposition, as protesters at the party’s final rally on Friday waved banners reading “Nazis out of parliament.”
Hardline Policies on Immigration and Economy
The FPÖ’s platform mirrors that of many far-right parties in Europe, focusing on strict immigration controls and opposition to EU intervention in national affairs. One of its central policies is “remigration,” a plan to send immigrants, particularly those involved in criminal activity, back to their countries of origin.
Positioning itself as the party of the working class, the FPÖ has also promised tax breaks for young workers and lower taxes on savings, appealing to voters who have been hard hit by Austria’s economic struggles. Austria has faced high inflation for nearly two years, and its growth has lagged behind European averages. Many voters see the FPÖ as their best option for addressing the cost of living crisis.
On foreign policy, the FPÖ diverges sharply from Austria’s current ÖVP-Greens coalition government. Kickl has called for Austria to continue importing Russian gas, arguing that cutting off this supply would raise energy prices further.
The FPÖ also opposes EU sanctions on Russia and additional aid to Ukraine, maintaining that Austria should remain neutral in the conflict. The FPÖ’s ties to Russia have drawn scrutiny, especially given its alliance in the European Parliament with Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, led by Viktor Orban—one of Vladimir Putin’s closest European allies. Meanwhile, Austria’s current government has been seeking ways to reduce its reliance on Moscow, calling it a significant “economic and security risk.”
Kickl’s Polarizing Leadership
Despite the FPÖ’s rise, Herbert Kickl remains a controversial figure in Austrian politics. Leaders of the other major parties have voiced their reluctance to form a coalition with him as chancellor. Chancellor Karl Nehammer of the ÖVP has ruled out the possibility of a government led by Kickl, though he has left open the door to a coalition with the FPÖ under a different leader.
Nehammer’s campaign has focused on stability and moderation, with slogans like “Vote Stability” and “Vote Centre,” aimed at attracting centrist voters wary of the far-right. He has been critical of Kickl’s embrace of conspiracy theories, particularly the FPÖ’s strong opposition to COVID-19 vaccines, which Kickl has called a “genetic engineering experiment.”
Austria’s President Alexander Van der Bellen, a former Green Party leader, also wields considerable influence in this process. He must approve any cabinet appointments and has indicated he would block extremist candidates, positioning himself as a gatekeeper against far-right influence in government.
Difficult Coalition Building
With no party expected to win a majority, coalition talks will follow Sunday’s election. The FPÖ’s most likely partner is the ÖVP, with whom it has previously governed. However, Nehammer’s opposition to working with Kickl as chancellor complicates the picture. It is possible that a different FPÖ leader could take the reins in a coalition with the ÖVP, given their overlapping positions on immigration and tax cuts.
If the ÖVP manages to outperform expectations, it could seek to form a coalition with the SPÖ and either the Greens or the liberal NEOS party, creating Austria’s first-ever three-way alliance. Forming such a coalition would likely take months of negotiation, particularly given the wide ideological differences between these parties.
Meanwhile, the FPÖ has little chance of forming a government without the ÖVP, as the SPÖ, Greens, and other parties have all ruled out working with Kickl’s far-right movement.
What the Opinion Polls Say
Polls leading up to Sunday’s election suggest a tight race. According to a recent survey by Der Standard, the FPÖ is on track for 27% of the vote, with the ÖVP close behind at 25%. The SPÖ is expected to garner 20%, placing it firmly in third.
Austria’s restrictive citizenship laws mean that some 1.5 million long-term residents—many of whom have lived in the country for decades—will not be able to vote in this election. Despite being ineligible to vote, these residents are deeply affected by the outcome, particularly as immigration and citizenship remain central to the FPÖ’s platform.
Uncertainty Looms
The outcome of Sunday’s vote could mark a turning point for Austria. A far-right victory would send shockwaves through Europe, with implications for the country’s relationship with the EU and its stance on Russia. Coalition talks will likely dominate Austrian politics for the months ahead, with no clear path to forming a government.
While the FPÖ’s rise reflects growing disillusionment with mainstream parties, it also highlights deep divisions within Austrian society. Whether the far-right party can translate its electoral gains into real political power remains to be seen.
