Key Takeaways:
- Nine out of 10 South Koreans believe it is impossible to denuclearize North Korea
- A security treaty was signed between Russia-North Korea in June 2023
- South Korea has the technical capacity to develop nuclear weapons within 6 to 18 months
Recent geopolitical tensions have prompted South Korea to reevaluate its defense strategy, with nuclear armament emerging as a potential option. This shift in thinking stems from North Korea’s advancing nuclear program and concerns about the reliability of US security guarantees.
South Korean officials argue that nuclear weapons could serve as a deterrent against North Korean aggression. Proponents cite the doctrine of mutually assured destruction as a stabilizing force in international relations. They contend that a nuclear-armed South Korea would alter the regional balance of power and enhance its strategic autonomy.
You can also read: Bangladesh’s Diplomatic Chessboard: The Significance of Hasina’s Upcoming Visit to China
South Korea’s nuclear ambitions also raise questions about its alliance with the United States. Washington opposes nuclear proliferation and may view South Korean nuclearization as a challenge to its regional influence. This could strain diplomatic ties and alter the security in Northeast Asia.
72.8% of S. Koreans Support Nuclear Weapon Development
Nine out of 10 South Koreans believe it is impossible to denuclearize North Korea, according to a poll commissioned by the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies and conducted by Gallup Korea. The institute released the results of the ‘Perception of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis and Security Situation’ poll on Monday. The survey was conducted from December 15 of last year to January 10 of this year by the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies, which commissioned Korea Gallup to conduct door-to-door interviews with 1,043 adults aged 18 and older.
When asked, ‘Do you think it is possible to denuclearize North Korea given Kim Jong Un’s declaration not to abandon nuclear weapons?’ 49.7% and 41.4% responded with ‘not possible’ and ‘not at all possible,’ respectively. Meanwhile, 91.1% of respondents expressed pessimism about denuclearization, marking an increase from 77.6% last year.
To the question, ‘Do you think the United States would use its nuclear deterrent in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, even at the risk of the U.S. being attacked?’ 60.8% responded with ‘no.’ “Rather than indicating a decline in trust in the U.S., this trend appears to be a result of North Korea’s advanced nuclear weapons programs and its expanded provocative posture,” the institute stated.
72.8% of respondents believe that South Korea should develop its own nuclear weapons, a percentage lower than last year’s (76.6%) but still relatively high. The survey’s sampling error was ±3.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.
Russia-North Korea Ties Stoke Concerns
The strengthening ties between Russia and North Korea have heightened security concerns in South Korea. In June 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a security treaty, pledging mutual assistance in case of attack. This agreement marks a significant shift in regional dynamics.
Reports suggest North Korea has supplied Russia with millions of artillery shells and short-range missiles for its war in Ukraine. In exchange, Russia has provided North Korea with fuel, food, and technology for nuclear, missile, and space programs. These exchanges violate UN sanctions and bolster North Korea’s military capabilities.
The Russia-North Korea alliance impacts South Korea’s security calculus in several ways. First, it provides North Korea with a powerful ally, potentially emboldening its aggressive posture. Second, the influx of Russian technology could accelerate North Korea’s weapons development. Third, it complicates diplomatic efforts to isolate North Korea and pressure it to denuclearize.
South Korean politicians have expressed alarm at these developments. Han Dong-hoon, a prominent figure in the ruling People Power Party, argued that South Korea should prepare for the possibility of developing nuclear weapons in response to the changing international situation. This sentiment reflects growing concerns about relying solely on allies for security.
The alliance also affects regional power dynamics. It challenges U.S. influence in Northeast Asia and complicates efforts to maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea now faces the prospect of a more capable and confident North Korea, backed by a nuclear-armed Russia.
International Reaction
The United States maintains its commitment to South Korea’s defense through its nuclear umbrella. This arrangement, part of the U.S.-South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty, aims to deter North Korean aggression. However, recent polls indicate growing skepticism among South Koreans about the effectiveness of this deterrent.
A 2023 survey by the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies found that 60.8% of South Koreans doubt the U.S. would use its nuclear deterrent to defend South Korea in an emergency. This skepticism reflects concerns about potential changes in U.S. foreign policy, particularly if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.
The U.S. opposes South Korean nuclear armament, viewing it as a threat to regional stability and non-proliferation efforts. American policymakers argue that a nuclear South Korea could trigger an arms race in Northeast Asia and weaken the U.S.-South Korea alliance.
Other nations in the region have expressed concern about the possibility of a nuclear-armed South Korea. Japan, in particular, worries that such a development could destabilize the region and potentially lead to further nuclear proliferation.
International organizations, including the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency, stress the importance of maintaining South Korea’s non-nuclear status. They argue that South Korean nuclear weapons would undermine global non-proliferation efforts and set a dangerous precedent.
Nuclear Capabilities of South Korea
South Korea possesses the technical capacity to develop nuclear weapons. Its advanced nuclear energy sector, which includes 24 operational nuclear reactors providing about 30% of the country’s electricity, gives it a strong foundation in nuclear technology.
South Korea has a well-developed nuclear fuel cycle, including uranium enrichment capabilities. It also has experience in reprocessing spent nuclear fuel, though it agreed to limit these activities under a 2015 nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States.
Experts estimate that South Korea could produce nuclear weapons within 6 to 18 months if it decided to do so. The country has the necessary scientific expertise, industrial infrastructure, and fissile material production capabilities.
However, significant obstacles exist. South Korea lacks weapons-grade fissile material and would need to divert resources from its civilian nuclear program. It would also need to develop delivery systems and miniaturize warheads to fit on missiles.
The main barriers to South Korean nuclear armament are political, not technical. Developing nuclear weapons would violate international treaties, including the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which South Korea ratified in 1975. It would also strain relations with the United States and potentially trigger international sanctions.
As regional tensions persist and alliances shift, South Korea must navigate competing pressures: the desire for self-reliance in defense, the need to maintain international partnerships, and the imperative of regional stability. The path forward will require careful diplomacy and strategic foresight to address security concerns while avoiding escalation.
