The ongoing conflict in Gaza has become a major international flashpoint, highlighting the complexities facing the Biden administration’s foreign policy. The situation has sparked increasing pressure on Biden from within his own Democratic party. Progressive lawmakers are urging stronger action against Israel’s military operations, including potential restrictions on U.S. aid. There are concerns that the prolonged violence could become a political liability for Biden and Democratic candidates heading into the next presidential elections.
Polls indicate that American public opinion is also shifting, with growing disapproval of Israel’s actions in Gaza. This has created a political headache for Biden as he tries to maintain support from the party’s progressive wing without alienating traditional pro-Israel factions.
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The conflict tests the limits of U.S. influence in the region, as the administration struggles to broker a ceasefire and rally international support. The waning sway of the United States in the Middle East, compared to rivals like Russia and China, compounds the challenge.
Ultimately, how Biden navigates this crisis could have significant implications for his broader foreign policy agenda and political standing. A prolonged conflict or perceptions of ineffective leadership risk undercutting the president’s credibility on the world stage and creating divides within his own party heading into the crucial midterm elections.
Biden’s Stance and Acceptance
While the Biden administration has historically backed Israel, the prolonged nature of the fighting and rising civilian casualties have led to growing criticism of the U.S.’s unconditional support.
Biden’s handling of the crisis is being closely watched, both domestically and internationally, as a test of his administration’s commitment to human rights and international law. The outrage toward Biden’s approach has manifested in protests and organized boycott efforts, particularly in states with sizable Arab American, Muslim American, and young voter populations.
Sensing the growing political pressure, the Biden administration has sought to apply pressure on Israel to avoid further civilian casualties. The president has even called on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to refrain from launching a major offensive in the city of Rafah without a clear plan.
However, these efforts have not quelled the mounting criticism from within the Democratic party. Lawmakers are urging the administration to do more to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, as the conflict has taken a devastating toll on the Palestinian population.
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Amidst the humanitarian pressure, the Biden administration is reportedly considering a major new arms sale to Israel. The potential deal involves up to 50 F-15 fighter jets, 30 advanced air-to-air missiles, and precision-guided munition kits – marking the largest U.S. military sale to Israel since the latest conflict began.
Lawmakers have already criticized previous arms transfers to Israel, arguing the process lacks transparency and amounts to a “blank check” for Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The criticism has only intensified after an Israeli airstrike killed seven aid workers with World Central Kitchen, further fueling anger over the civilian toll of the conflict. Senator Bernie Sanders, a prominent progressive voice, has directly called for an end to U.S. military aid to Israel, stating that the country has killed over 200 aid workers in the nearly six-month war.
Sanders has also expressed concern that the ongoing crisis in Gaza could hurt the Democratic Party’s electoral prospects in the upcoming elections.
Most Americans Disapprove Israel’s Attack
A new Gallup poll reveals a significant shift in American public opinion regarding Israel’s ongoing military campaign against Hamas in Gaza. The survey shows that a majority of U.S. adults now disapprove of Israel’s actions, with support dropping from 50% in November to just 36% in March.
The data also highlights a stark partisan divide. While 64% of Republicans still back Israel’s war effort, only 18% of Democrats express approval. Both parties, however, have seen a decline in support since the conflict began in October.
Among independent voters, approval for Israel’s military operations has plummeted from 47% to just 29% over the same time period.
The shifting public sentiment coincides with growing protests across the United States calling for a ceasefire and greater protection for Palestinian civilians. The conflict, now approaching six months, has resulted in over 32,000 Palestinian deaths and a looming humanitarian crisis, including the threat of famine in northern Gaza.
This emerging dynamic has fueled fury within the Democratic party, especially among Arab American and young voters who are threatening to withhold support for President Biden and other Democratic candidates in the upcoming November elections. In Michigan’s recent primary, for example, around 13% of Democrats opted to vote “uncommitted” rather than support the president.
Testing the Limits of U.S. Influence
The U.S.’s ability to mediate conflicts and promote peace is being tested through the conflict. This dynamic was on display when the U.S. attempted to shepherd a UN Security Council resolution calling for more aid to Gaza and cautioning against an Israeli offensive in Rafah. The resolution failed, vetoed by Russia and China, highlighting the difficulties the U.S. faces in rallying international support for its positions.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Tel Aviv provided a striking illustration of these constraints. While he engaged directly with Israeli protesters, urging the release of hostages held by Hamas, his message was carefully choreographed and presented to the cameras. This performative diplomacy underscored the administration’s struggle to translate its rhetoric into substantive influence on the ground.
As the crisis has deepened, the limits of U.S. power have become increasingly apparent. The American-drafted UN resolution, which endorsed the Qatar-mediated ceasefire process and warned against a Rafah assault, was ultimately rejected. This setback prompted a rebuke from Blinken, who warned that such an offensive could further isolate Israel internationally and jeopardize its long-term security.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed back, asserting that Israel would act unilaterally if necessary, despite U.S. pressure. This exchange highlighted the growing rift between Washington and Tel Aviv, with the superpower being effectively pushed back by its steadfast regional ally.
The Gaza war has laid bare the erosion of American influence in the Middle East, where the U.S. faces increasing competition from rivals like Russia and China. The Biden administration’s inability to shape the conflict’s route according to its preferences reflects the complexities and constraints of its foreign policy in the region. Ultimately, the erosion of public support for Israel’s military actions, coupled with the growing political fallout for the Democratic party, presents a significant challenge for the Biden administration as it tries to balance its strategic relationship with Israel and its commitment to human rights and international law.
