When Donald Trump won his reelection, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his team breathed a sigh of relief. The thought of Kamala Harris in the White House was unnerving for Israel, as it likely would have meant increased pressure for a viable peace plan for Gaza, potentially breaking apart Netanyahu’s fragile coalition government. With Trump’s return, Netanyahu knew he could continue operating with greater freedom in Gaza, without facing any significant consequences from the U.S. government. However, the situation is changing, and Netanyahu might soon find himself at odds with U.S. interests in the region, particularly with Gulf allies pushing for a new approach.
Trump’s Economic Diplomacy: Shifting Priorities
Trump’s foreign policy has always been rooted in economic pragmatism. During his first term, he made it clear that U.S. diplomacy, especially in the Middle East, would focus heavily on securing deals with wealthy nations. His 2017 trip to the region was a perfect example of this, where he pushed for major arms deals, business partnerships, and investments that could benefit the U.S. economy. In his second term, this focus hasn’t shifted. Trump’s upcoming trip to the Gulf—where he’s scheduled to meet with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Qatar’s leadership, and the UAE’s ruling authorities—is once again aimed at securing massive trade and investment deals. The Saudis have already pledged $600 billion in investments, which could potentially rise to $1 trillion. Qatar and the UAE are also expected to announce their own multibillion-dollar deals. For Trump, these investments are more than just financial gains—they’re a way to maintain the U.S.’s influence in the region while strengthening its economic standing back home.
Netanyahu’s Dilemma: Gaza vs. Gulf Relations
For Netanyahu, Trump’s return to power meant that Israel could continue its hardline policies in Gaza without fear of U.S. intervention. Under Trump, Netanyahu enjoyed a largely free hand to escalate military actions against Hamas, including airstrikes and breaking ceasefires, without facing any major pushback from the U.S. This freedom allowed Netanyahu to maintain his coalition government, especially since many of his allies are staunchly against any concessions on Gaza.
However, as Gulf leaders push for peace and a resolution to the Gaza conflict, Netanyahu finds himself in a difficult spot. The Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, have made it clear that they are willing to normalize relations with Israel—but only if there is significant progress on the Palestinian issue. They want a return to two-state negotiations and an end to the Gaza conflict, both of which Israel has resisted for years.
The pressure from these Gulf nations is hard to ignore. The Saudis have stated that they won’t engage in normalization talks with Israel unless there’s clear movement toward a two-state solution. Additionally, the Gulf is increasingly focused on regional stability, which means they’re eager to see a resolution to Gaza, a conflict that has long fueled instability in the region. This is a challenge for Netanyahu, who has relied on military action in Gaza to maintain domestic political support.
Shifting U.S. Stance: A New Focus on Ceasefire and Regional Stability
While Netanyahu enjoyed a mostly frictionless relationship with Trump in terms of military actions, the dynamics are shifting. For the first time, Trump and his team are publicly urging Israel to seek a ceasefire in Gaza. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, criticized Israel for prolonging the conflict, calling for a new ceasefire and a focus on bringing hostages back home. Even Trump, who historically refrained from challenging Israeli military actions, has called for an end to the war.
This shift in tone reflects the changing realities of U.S. diplomacy in the region. Trump, while still a strong ally of Israel, is also deeply focused on his economic agenda. He sees the Gulf states as key partners in his efforts to revive the U.S. economy. As the region moves toward greater stability—particularly with Iran’s influence waning—Trump’s focus is shifting away from military actions and toward achieving broader diplomatic goals.
Trump’s Pragmatic Diplomacy: A Win for U.S. Interests
Trump’s foreign policy approach, while occasionally at odds with Israel’s long-standing positions, prioritizes U.S. economic and regional stability. His focus on the Gulf’s wealth and potential investments has shaped U.S. policy in a way that might force Netanyahu to reconsider his approach in Gaza. The Gulf countries, eager for stability and economic cooperation, are increasingly pushing for a diplomatic solution that includes Israel’s movement toward a two-state solution. For Netanyahu, balancing this pressure with the demands of his coalition will be a delicate task.
Trump’s ability to secure multibillion-dollar investments from the Gulf states is a testament to his approach to foreign policy—one that blends diplomacy with financial gains. This focus on economic statecraft, while benefiting the U.S., might put Israel in a difficult position. Netanyahu may be forced to align Israel’s policies with the broader regional goals of peace and stability, even if that means compromising on Gaza.
Netanyahu’s Strategic Calculations
While Netanyahu initially saw Trump’s reelection as a clear victory for Israel, the changing dynamics of U.S. foreign policy could soon force him to adjust his approach. Trump’s focus on economic diplomacy and regional stability has reshaped the Middle Eastern diplomatic landscape. With Gulf states pushing for a resolution to the Gaza conflict and a return to peace talks, Netanyahu will have to navigate these pressures carefully. Trump’s transactional approach may force Israel to shift its stance, making it clear that the days of unilateral military action without consequences may be coming to an end.
In the end, Trump’s pragmatism and focus on economic deals may create new opportunities for Israel, but it will also require strategic adjustments. Netanyahu’s ability to balance his government’s hardline stance with the demands of his U.S. allies and Gulf partners will be crucial in the coming months.
