The caretaker government’s emphasis on constitutional and electoral reforms before holding elections has further fueled debates about the potential sidelining of the two leaders
The “Minus Two” formula, a controversial doctrine in Bangladesh’s political landscape, has resurfaced in discussions as the country grapples with political uncertainty. Originally introduced during the military-backed caretaker government of 2007-2008, the formula sought to sideline two of the nation’s most prominent political leaders: Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League (AL) and Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
This analytical article delves into the origins, implications, and contemporary relevance of the “Minus Two” formula and its potential impact on the nation’s political dynamics.
Origins of the “Minus Two” Formula
The “Minus Two” formula emerged during the “1/11 changeover” in 2007, when the Bangladeshi military intervened and installed a caretaker government led by Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed. The political climate at the time was fraught with corruption, partisan governance, and street-level violence between the AL and BNP. The caretaker government’s attempt to depoliticize governance led to the arrests of Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, the leaders of the two dominant political parties. This move was intended to pave the way for a new political order by sidelining the “Begums”, whose rivalry had long dominated Bangladeshi politics.
Despite initial support, the “Minus Two” initiative faced resistance from both parties’ grassroots supporters and failed to materialize fully. Both Hasina and Zia were released in time for the 2008 elections, where Hasina’s AL secured a landslide victory, marking her return to power.
Timeline of the “Minus Two” Formula:
2007: The “Minus Two” formula emerges during the “1/11 changeover,” when a military-backed caretaker government led by Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed takes power. The formula aims to exclude Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia from politics to reset Bangladesh’s governance.
2007-2008: Both Hasina and Zia are arrested and detained as part of the caretaker government’s efforts to implement the formula. However, significant resistance from party supporters and civil society complicates the initiative.
2008: The caretaker government is pressured by popular movements and international concerns to hold elections. Both leaders are released, and Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League wins the election in a landslide, effectively ending the initial “Minus Two” experiment.
2024: Following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina’s government and the rise of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as head of a caretaker administration, speculations about reviving the “Minus Two” formula resurface. Both Hasina and Zia find themselves sidelined, sparking debates about its potential implementation.
Current Relevance of the “Minus Two” Formula
In 2024, following a popular uprising and the ousting of Sheikh Hasina’s government, Bangladesh finds itself under another caretaker administration, this time led by Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus. Speculations about the revival of the “Minus Two” formula have gained traction as both Hasina and Zia find themselves sidelined—Hasina in self-imposed exile in India and Zia undergoing medical treatment abroad. The caretaker government’s emphasis on constitutional and electoral reforms before holding elections has further fueled debates about the potential sidelining of the two leaders.
Impact on Bangladesh’s Political Landscape
Shift in Political Dynamics: The “Minus Two” approach aims to create a level playing field by removing the two most polarizing figures in Bangladeshi politics. However, their absence could lead to a vacuum in leadership, potentially destabilizing their respective parties. The BNP, already weakened by internal divisions and Khaleda Zia’s ailing health, faces the added challenge of rallying support without its iconic leader.
Rise of New Political Forces: The current political limbo has given rise to new movements, including the “Jatiya Nagorik Committee”, which consists of young professionals, civil society members, and student leaders from the anti-Hasina protests. Observers suggest that the caretaker government’s reforms and extended timeline for elections may be intended to strengthen these emerging political entities, potentially reshaping Bangladesh’s political landscape.
Institutional Reforms and Stability: The caretaker government’s stated goal of reforming electoral and constitutional systems aims to address long-standing issues of partisanship and voter suppression. However, critics argue that delaying elections to implement these reforms risks further alienating mainstream political parties like the BNP and AL, heightening political tensions.
Potential for Confrontational Politics: The exclusion of Hasina and Zia could lead to increased polarization and confrontational politics. Grassroots supporters of both leaders may perceive the move as an undemocratic attempt to weaken their parties, potentially leading to unrest and instability.
Economic and Geopolitical Implications
The “Minus Two” formula also has broader implications for Bangladesh’s economy and international relations. The political instability it fosters could deter foreign investment and slow economic growth. Additionally, Bangladesh’s strategic location in South Asia makes it a critical player in regional geopolitics. Prolonged political uncertainty could weaken its negotiating position with neighbors like India and China and diminish its standing on the global stage.
Minus Two: A Double-Edged Sword
The “Minus Two” formula represents both an opportunity and a challenge for Bangladesh. While it aims to break the cycle of political rivalry and foster a more inclusive political environment, its implementation risks creating new tensions and uncertainties. As the caretaker government navigates these challenges, the success of its reforms and the eventual transition to an elected government will determine whether the “Minus Two” approach can pave the way for a stable and democratic Bangladesh or exacerbate existing divisions in the country’s political fabric.
