By 2030, 24% of Singapore’s population is projected to be senior citizens, pushing the country toward “super-aged society” status, similar to Japan
Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk has reignited a global conversation about fertility, suggesting that Singapore, among other nations, is “going extinct.” His comments, made on X (formerly Twitter), highlight Singapore’s record-low Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 0.97 in 2023—a stark drop from 1.04 in 2022.
Singapore’s TFR, which measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, is now far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed for population stability. This places Singapore among the nations with the world’s lowest fertility rates.
Singapore (and many other countries) are going extinct https://t.co/YORyakBynm
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 5, 2024
South Korea leads this grim trend, reporting a TFR of just 0.72 in 2023. Other nations, including Japan, Hong Kong, and China, also face similar demographic challenges. For instance, Japan’s fertility rate hit 1.26 in 2022, while China’s dropped to 1.09, according to official statistics.
Government Response and Demographic Realities
Singapore’s Ministry of Manpower recently addressed the implications of declining fertility. “The slowing resident population growth and ageing population will lead to tightening manpower constraints in the medium term,” it said, emphasizing the need for foreign workers and investments to sustain economic growth.
By 2030, 24% of Singapore’s population is projected to be senior citizens, pushing the country toward “super-aged society” status, similar to Japan. This aging trend compounds the issues posed by low fertility, shrinking workforces, and economic slowdowns.
What’s Behind Singapore’s Low Fertility Rate?
Officials point to various factors driving the decline. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted marriage and parenthood plans, while financial concerns, work-life balance challenges, and shifting generational priorities have led young Singaporeans to view marriage and parenthood as less critical life goals.
Indranee Rajah, who oversees the National Population and Talent Division in the Prime Minister’s Office, warned that declining birth rates threaten Singapore’s economic dynamism. “Families are shrinking, and more couples are responsible for both children and ageing parents. Fewer births mean a shrinking workforce, making it harder to attract global businesses and create opportunities for future generations,” she said.
Can Robots Bridge the Gap?
In response to labor shortages, Singapore is turning to robotics. The city-state ranks second globally in robot density, with 770 robots per 10,000 workers. From patrolling robocops to robo-cleaners, these machines are increasingly integrated into daily life.
Musk, whose company Tesla is heavily invested in humanoid robotics, has championed robotics as a potential solution to the labor and demographic challenges faced by nations like Singapore.
A Regional Challenge
Singapore’s struggle is part of a broader regional crisis. South Korea, with its plummeting birth rates, could see its population halved by 2100, according to experts. Similarly, in Japan, deaths have outpaced births, doubling the gap in 2023.
China’s declining birth rates have already forced the closure of thousands of kindergartens. Experts warn these demographic shifts will have profound economic and social repercussions if left unaddressed.
The Path Forward
While Musk’s comments spotlight the issue, the solutions are complex. Nations grappling with demographic decline must balance policies promoting higher birth rates with innovations like robotics to mitigate labor shortages. For countries like Singapore, the stakes are high as they navigate the challenges of a shrinking, aging population.
