The 2024 U.S. presidential election has seen the Latino vote emerge as a pivotal battleground, with economic dissatisfaction driving a shift in political allegiance. Historically a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, Latinos are now increasingly turning to the Republican Party, especially in battleground states like Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Florida. The reasons for this shift are rooted in a growing sense of frustration over inflation, rising living costs, and economic policies that many feel have failed to deliver meaningful relief.
The Economic Impact: Inflation and Rising Costs
Latino households, which are more likely to work in sectors such as food service, retail, and construction, were hit hard by the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These industries have struggled to recover fully, and inflation has only exacerbated the situation. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation in 2023 was 6.2%, with housing, food, and healthcare costs seeing the most significant increases. Rent prices alone rose by 10%, while grocery costs surged by 7.5%—pressures that have hit Latino communities particularly hard.
Eduardo Sanchez, a small business owner and Nicaraguan immigrant in San Francisco, is one such voter whose economic frustrations have shifted his political allegiance. Despite voting for Joe Biden in 2020, Sanchez cast his ballot for Trump in 2024, citing inflation as the primary reason for his decision. “Democrats are not working for the entire community, just themselves,” he said in a Spanish-language interview with CNN. His sentiment mirrors that of many Latinos who feel their financial struggles are not being addressed by the current administration.
This growing economic anxiety has created a fertile ground for Trump’s message. In 2024, data from the Pew Research Center revealed that 51% of Latino voters cited inflation and affordability as their top concerns—issues that have become more pressing than traditional topics like immigration. As a result, many Latinos have been swayed by Trump’s promises of tax cuts and economic reforms, which are seen as potential solutions to the rising cost of living.
Trump’s Economic Appeal: Tax Cuts and Tariffs
One of the primary reasons for Trump’s success with Latino voters is his economic platform, which emphasizes tax cuts, deregulation, and lower taxes on workers in industries where many Latinos are employed. During his first term, Trump implemented the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which lowered corporate tax rates and provided individual tax cuts. In 2024, he has doubled down on these policies, pledging further tax relief for middle- and low-income earners.
Trump has specifically proposed eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security, measures aimed at providing immediate financial relief to workers in service industries. The Tax Policy Center has suggested that these cuts could benefit workers who rely on tips for a significant portion of their income, a demographic that includes many Latinos. However, the economic benefits of these tax cuts are a subject of debate. Critics warn that they could worsen the national debt—projected to increase by more than $7 trillion over the next decade—and that the tax cuts may not benefit lower-income households as much as expected.
In contrast, Trump’s protectionist stance—particularly his proposal to raise tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and Canada—has the potential to hurt Latino households. According to the think tank Third Way, Trump’s tariffs could cost American families up to $185 more annually for groceries. Since Latino households are more likely to purchase imported goods, the burden of these tariffs would fall disproportionately on them.
The Declining Democratic Advantage
Although Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party still retained a majority of the Latino vote in 2024, their margin of victory was notably narrower than in 2020. This shift signals growing frustration among Latinos over economic issues, which the Republicans have effectively leveraged. A report from the Latino Donor Collaborative found that 61% of Latinos polled cited the economy as their primary concern in 2024—up from 42% in 2020—while only 42% listed immigration as their top issue.
This change in priorities reflects a broader shift in Latino voting behavior. Political strategists like Mike Madrid argue that Latinos are no longer making decisions based solely on party affiliation. “Latinos want to know what the policies will do for their lives economically,” Madrid said, “and the Democrats haven’t done enough to address that concern.” As economic concerns take center stage, more Latinos have gravitated toward Republican messaging, which has focused on inflation and promises of economic relief.
Can Democrats Regain Latino Voters?
Despite the growing support for Trump among Latinos, Democrats are not entirely out of the race. The Democratic Party still has the opportunity to regain disillusioned Latino voters by addressing the economic issues that matter most to them—especially inflation and affordability. However, Democrats will need to better communicate their successes and the tangible benefits of their policies, particularly in areas like healthcare, job creation, and social safety nets.
Ana Valdez, president of the Latino Donor Collaborative, believes that Democrats need to make a more concerted effort to highlight their achievements. “Democrats took Latino voters for granted,” Valdez said. “Republicans made a far more significant investment this year in courting this demographic.” Valdez argues that Democrats must improve their messaging, emphasizing their economic policies and addressing the issues that have led to a decline in Latino support.
Carlos Odio, a Democratic strategist, also believes that Latino voters could swing back to the Democratic Party if Trump’s economic policies fail to deliver. “If Trump’s economic policies hurt Latinos more than they help, there will be a backlash,” Odio said. To win back Latino voters, Democrats will need to craft a clear and compelling economic vision that speaks directly to their concerns.
