Far-right nationalist Calin Georgescu has taken a surprise lead in Romania’s presidential election, securing 22% of the vote in the first round, ahead of pro-European Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu with 20%
Romania’s presidential election has taken an unexpected turn as far-right nationalist Calin Georgescu surged to the top in the first round of voting, according to preliminary results. With 96% of votes counted, Georgescu leads with 22%, followed closely by pro-European Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu at 20%. The final tally will determine which two candidates advance to the run-off on 8 December 2024, setting the stage for a pivotal decision in Romania’s political trajectory.
Unexpected Leadership in a Divided Election
Georgescu’s rise as an independent candidate with no formal party affiliation has shocked analysts and voters alike. His campaign relied heavily on TikTok, bypassing traditional political structures to resonate with younger voters and disenfranchised groups. Georgescu has positioned himself as a nationalist advocating for Romania’s sovereignty, criticizing the country’s alignment with NATO and the EU.
Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, representing the populist Social Democrats, trailed slightly in second place. A long-time establishment figure, Ciolacu offers a continuation of Romania’s pro-Western policies, including support for Ukraine and alignment with EU goals.
This result has created a dilemma for voters, who now face a stark choice between preserving Romania’s pro-European path or embracing Georgescu’s ultranationalist rhetoric.
Orthodox nuns cast their votes in Romania’s presidential election in Pasarea, Romania, on Sunday, November 24, 2024. (Credits: AP Photo)
Election Context
The 8 December run-off will come against the backdrop of significant domestic challenges. Romania faces the highest poverty risk in the EU, with nearly 35% of its population at risk of poverty or social exclusion, according to Eurostat. Inflation and soaring costs of living have dominated the election campaign, pushing voters to seek alternatives to mainstream politicians.
Georgescu capitalized on public discontent, criticizing Romania’s perceived “subservience” to NATO and the EU. He has particularly condemned the NATO ballistic missile defense shield in Deveselu, a symbol of Romania’s strategic importance in Europe’s security architecture. His platform also includes skepticism toward Romania’s support for Ukraine, aligning with Russia-friendly narratives.
Ciolacu, by contrast, focused his campaign on stability, promising social reforms and continued Western integration. He pledged to address inequality and improve living standards while maintaining Romania’s commitments to NATO and the EU.
Presidential candidates (from left): George Simion of the radical right AUR, Elena Lasconi of the progressive USR and Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic party. (Credits: The Guardian)
Key Events Leading to the Election
- Election Announcement: Romania announced its presidential election for 24 November 2024, aiming to replace President Klaus Iohannis, whose term expires in December.
- Economic Backdrop: Rising inflation, driven by global energy prices, and growing public dissatisfaction with governance set the stage for anti-establishment sentiments.
- Social Media Campaigning: Georgescu’s unorthodox use of TikTok became a defining feature of the election, capturing attention from younger demographics.
Exit polls released earlier on 24 November initially suggested that Ciolacu held a commanding lead, with center-right candidate Elena Lasconi in second place. However, as votes were tallied, Lasconi dropped to third with 18%, and nationalist George Simion followed in fourth.
Implications of the Run-Off Election
Romania’s Foreign Policy at a Crossroads: The president in Romania wields significant influence over foreign policy, and Georgescu’s ascent signals potential shifts. If elected, he has vowed to renegotiate Romania’s relationship with NATO and the EU, possibly scaling back support for Ukraine. Such a move would isolate Romania within the European community and align it more closely with Russian interests.
In contrast, Ciolacu represents continuity in Romania’s pro-European stance. His leadership would likely sustain Romania’s current commitments, including the NATO missile defense shield in Deveselu and Ukraine-related aid.
Economic Reform vs. Nationalism: Domestically, the election is a referendum on Romania’s economic challenges. Ciolacu has promised to reduce poverty through targeted social programs, leveraging EU funding to address inequality. Georgescu’s platform, while focusing on sovereignty, offers less clarity on economic reforms. His rhetoric risks alienating EU partners critical for economic development.
A Surge in Far-Right Sentiments: Why?
Calin Georgescu speaks to media after registering his bid in the country’s presidential elections, in Bucharest, Romania on October 1, 2024 (Credits: AP)
Georgescu’s rise reflects broader European trends of increasing far-right populism, fueled by economic grievances and skepticism of traditional political elites. Similar movements have gained traction in Italy, Hungary, and Poland. Georgescu’s campaign resonates with voters disillusioned by perceived political stagnation and eager for nationalist rhetoric.
His reliance on social media platforms like TikTok to amplify his message demonstrates the growing role of digital campaigning in modern elections. TikTok’s algorithm-driven engagement allows candidates to bypass traditional media, reaching younger, tech-savvy audiences directly.
Looking Ahead to 8 December
As the run-off approaches, the stakes for Romania’s future are high. The election represents a choice between two distinct visions:
- Ciolacu’s Stability: Pro-European, rooted in mainstream governance, and focused on social reform and Western alignment.
- Georgescu’s Nationalism: Anti-establishment, sovereignty-focused, and critical of Romania’s ties to NATO and the EU.
Turnout, which was 51% in the first round, will be critical in determining the outcome. Voter mobilization, particularly among the large Romanian diaspora, could play a decisive role in tipping the balance.
Lastly, Romania’s presidential election has become a battleground for competing ideologies—nationalism versus pro-Europeanism, sovereignty versus integration. The surprising success of Calin Georgescu highlights growing public discontent and the power of digital campaigning in shaping political landscapes. As Romania heads to the run-off on 8 December, its future direction—both domestically and internationally—hangs in the balance.
