As the war in Ukraine approaches its third anniversary in February 2025, President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled a shift in Kyiv’s strategy, advocating for a diplomatic resolution to the brutal conflict with Russia.
This change comes amid escalating challenges on the battlefield, increasing war fatigue at home, and uncertain international support as geopolitical realities evolve.
Diplomacy Amid War Fatigue
Recent polling by Gallup underscores a significant shift in Ukrainian sentiment. For the first time since the invasion began, a majority (52%) of Ukrainians now favor a negotiated end to the war, a sharp contrast to the defiance seen in early 2022 when 73% supported fighting until victory. This weariness is most pronounced in regions closer to the front lines, with more than 63% of residents in the East supporting negotiations.
Among those favoring diplomacy, opinions are divided on territorial concessions. While 52% are open to ceding some land in exchange for peace, this remains a contentious issue, especially as Zelensky continues to reject Moscow’s demands for the surrender of occupied territories.
Trump’s Return: A Wild Card for Ukraine
Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election looms large over Ukraine’s future. The president-elect has consistently criticized U.S. military aid to Kyiv and promised to broker a “quick deal” to end the war. Zelensky, in a recent interview, acknowledged that Trump’s presidency could expedite the war’s resolution but hinted at the complexities of such a scenario.
Since February 2022, the United States has been Ukraine’s largest military supporter, supplying advanced weaponry critical to Kyiv’s defense. However, Trump’s skepticism toward prolonged U.S. involvement has fueled concerns about a potential reduction in aid, further pressuring Ukraine to find alternative solutions.
Russian Gains and the North Korean Factor
On the battlefield, Russia has made notable advances in recent months, particularly in eastern Ukraine. Moscow’s forces are closing in on strategic hubs like Kurakhove, raising alarms about Kyiv’s dwindling resources and personnel. The front line is now moving at its fastest pace since the early days of the war in 2022.
Compounding the challenges, North Korea has sent thousands of troops to assist Russian forces in the Kursk region. This marks a significant deepening of military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang, formalized by a defense pact ratified earlier this month. The West has condemned North Korea’s involvement, with Japan and South Korea warning of broader security implications for East Asia.
Scholz’s Call and European Dissent
Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz has faced backlash after reaching out to Russian President Vladimir Putin last week. While Scholz condemned Russia’s actions and called for peace negotiations, Kyiv labeled the move as appeasement, warning it could embolden Putin. Domestically, Scholz’s fragile political position has added to the controversy, with critics accusing him of handing Moscow a propaganda victory.
Despite these tensions, the Group of Seven (G7) reiterated its unified stance on Ukraine, pledging continued support and sanctions against Russia. However, Zelensky’s vision of leveraging NATO membership and long-range missiles to counter Russian advances has met mixed reactions from Western allies, reflecting diverging priorities.
Economic and Human Costs
The protracted war has exacted a devastating toll on Ukraine. With more than 1,000 days of fighting, the country’s infrastructure has been ravaged, and millions have been displaced. Economically, the conflict has strained Ukraine’s resources, with international aid proving vital for its survival.
Russia, too, faces significant losses, with heavy casualties reported despite its recent gains. Both nations are locked in a conflict where neither side appears capable of achieving a decisive victory under current conditions.
The Path Forward
Zelensky’s call for diplomacy reflects a pragmatic recognition of Ukraine’s evolving challenges. However, achieving peace will require navigating a labyrinth of domestic and international hurdles. Any potential negotiations hinge on reconciling Kyiv’s territorial integrity with Moscow’s demands, a task complicated by Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy stance and North Korea’s growing involvement.
As the conflict drags on, the appetite for peace among Ukrainians and the international community will likely grow. But with Russia advancing and global powers reassessing their roles, the road to resolution remains fraught with uncertainty. For Ukraine, the coming months may prove pivotal in determining whether diplomacy can indeed bring an end to Europe’s most devastating conflict since World War II.
