Iran and Israel’s decades-long covert conflict is unfolding in a war of espionage, where intelligence operations and narrative control shape the region’s fragile balance of power.
War often evokes images of armies and missiles, but some of the most impactful battles unfold in the shadows. Through espionage, cyberattacks, and covert operations, these conflicts reshape global power without a single shot fired. Nowhere is this more evident than in the decades-long intelligence war between Iran and Israel, where agents, informants, and cyber warriors wage a high-stakes struggle that blurs the line between peace and conflict.
The recent indictment of CIA official Asif Rahman, accused of leaking classified U.S. intelligence about Israeli preparations for retaliatory strikes on Iran, has cast a rare spotlight on the intricate web of espionage shaping the Middle East. This incident, alongside Israel’s dramatic arrests of alleged Iranian spies, underscores the depth and complexity of the intelligence war between Iran, Israel, and their allies.
A Leak with Far-Reaching Implications
In October 2024, CIA official Asif Rahman was charged with leaking classified intelligence about Israeli military plans to an Iran-linked Telegram channel. The incident laid bare the precarious balance between allies and adversaries while highlighting vulnerabilities in intelligence networks. Although the Telegram channel denies ties to the Iranian government, the case embarrassed the U.S., which is still recovering from high-profile leaks like Jack Teixeira’s Pentagon documents earlier this year.
This leak underscores the increasing reliance on human intelligence (HUMINT) and cyber surveillance in conflicts. For Israel, the breach was particularly concerning, exposing weaknesses in its preparation against Iran’s regional activities and reinforcing Iran’s capacity to penetrate sensitive channels.
Escalation of Espionage Arrests
Israel’s response was swift. In late October, Shin Bet arrested 14 individuals—seven in Haifa and seven in East Jerusalem—accused of spying for Iran. These individuals reportedly conducted hundreds of intelligence missions over two years, including targeting high-ranking Israeli officials.
Iran, too, has taken action. Since the start of the year, it has executed at least four individuals accused of collaborating with Mossad. These executions, coupled with the arrests in Israel, emphasize the stakes involved in this covert war. Espionage is not just about gathering intelligence; it’s about survival.
Number of Arrests Behind the Shadow War
Israel has arrested numerous individuals linked to Iranian intelligence, many from marginalized communities, while Iran has executed over 40 people since 2020 on charges of spying for Israel. Israel has reportedly focused on recruiting individuals from ethnic and religious minorities in Iran, such as the Kurdish and Baloch communities. These groups often face socio-economic marginalization and political grievances, making them potential targets for recruitment by foreign intelligence. Although details of operations are less publicly available, Iran has claimed to dismantle Mossad networks operating within these communities. In 2023, Tehran executed individuals accused of collaborating with Israel in a plot targeting its nuclear infrastructure, reported Reuters.
Iranian intelligence has been accused of exploiting individuals in socio-economically disadvantaged communities within Israel. A notable case occurred in October 2024, when seven East Jerusalem residents were arrested for allegedly being part of an Iranian spy network. Israeli authorities reported that the individuals, aged 19 to 23, were motivated by financial incentives. They allegedly planned attacks, including targeting a nuclear scientist, The Times of Israel reported.
The Changing Landscape of Espionage
Technological advances have not diminished the importance of human intelligence. According to Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, “Human intelligence plays a significant role in the ongoing covert war between Israel and Iran. Both countries rely on espionage to inform their broader strategies.”
Israel’s Mossad has showcased its capabilities through operations deep within Iran, targeting scientists, political leaders, and critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, Iran has focused on establishing intelligence networks within Israel, often exploiting societal divisions.
Notably, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a prominent Hamas political leader in August has been linked to espionage operations. Reports indicate that the assassination was carried out using a remotely detonated explosive device planted in Haniyeh’s accommodation. The device was allegedly placed by operatives recruited by Israel’s Mossad, highlighting a significant breach in Iranian security. Iran arrested over 2 dozens suspects tied to Israeli intelligence.
Fault Lines in Israeli Society
Israel has long been viewed as resistant to foreign intelligence infiltration, but growing internal divisions have created vulnerabilities. Judicial reforms, political polarization, and ethnic tensions have provided openings for adversaries like Iran. Many of the recent espionage suspects arrested in Haifa were immigrants or Arab Israelis, groups often marginalized within Israeli society.
“Israel’s cohesive identity has been its strength, but recent divisions are giving Iranian intelligence new opportunities,” defense analyst Hamze Attar notes. Iran’s focus on disenfranchised groups within Israel highlights its evolving strategy to exploit internal fault lines.
The Broader Geopolitical Picture
This intelligence war reflects larger regional dynamics. Iran has built a network of allies, including Hezbollah, to counterbalance Israel’s influence. Meanwhile, Israel has deepened ties with Gulf states and focused on destabilizing Iran’s regime.
Israel’s covert successes in Iran, such as the Stuxnet cyberattack and the assassination of nuclear scientists, are part of its broader strategy to weaken Iran’s infrastructure and leadership. For its part, Iran leverages its ideological and regional alliances to maintain resilience against Israeli incursions.
The Shadow War Continues
As the Rahman case and recent arrests demonstrate, the intelligence conflict between Iran and Israel is far from over. These covert battles not only shape the regional balance of power but also influence global stability.
Espionage, often hidden in the shadows, is increasingly defining the course of history. As Toossi aptly notes, “Despite Israel’s tactical successes, the notion of invincibility is undermined by the country’s increasingly precarious strategic situation.” For Iran and Israel, this war in the shadows is as pivotal as any fought on the battlefield.
Lastly, The covert conflict between Iran and Israel is a high-stakes battle shaping regional and global dynamics. Arrests, leaks, and operations highlight the central role of espionage in modern warfare. Israel relies on precision and technology, while Iran counters with alliances and narrative control. This shadow war influences not just the Middle East but global stability, where each secret uncovered has the potential to shift the balance.
