- The U.S. immigration system faces a 1.3 million backlog of pending removal cases.
- ICE’s 41,000 detention beds are insufficient for handling increased deportations.
Despite campaign rhetoric and promises of mass deportations, deportations actually decreased during Donald Trump’s first presidential term. This trend continues, with the Biden administration deporting a comparable number of people as Trump.
During his first term, Trump concentrated heavily on immigration, focusing on building a border wall, restricting travel from certain countries, and reducing the nation’s openness to immigrants. Trump also authorized immigration raids on businesses, a tactic expected to increase when former acting ICE Director Tom Homan, his newly appointed “border czar,” takes office.
Homan recently stated on Fox News that Trump’s return to office would bring intensified immigration enforcement: “It’s going to be the same as it was during the first administration, it’s just a hell of a lot more because 10 million people are getting in this country illegally under the Biden administration.”
Deportation Figures
During Trump’s first term, over 1.5 million people were deported. However, this was significantly lower than the 2.9 million deportations under President Obama’s first term and fewer than Obama’s 1.9 million during his second term. Biden’s administration has deported around 1.49 million so far, with a focus on border cases. These numbers exclude the large numbers turned away under the COVID-era Title 42 policy, used by both Trump and Biden.
Obama’s deportations focused mainly on single men from Mexico, while recent immigration trends show more immigrants arriving from distant countries and often in family groups, complicating deportation logistics and creating diplomatic hurdles as many countries resist repatriation. Mexico, however, has agreed to accept immigrants from other nations as part of an arrangement with Biden’s administration.
Factors Impacting Deportation Numbers
A few significant factors have contributed to the decline in deportations. Many local law enforcement agencies have reduced cooperation with federal immigration authorities, a trend that began under Obama and increased during Trump’s term. Additionally, the U.S. immigration system is overwhelmed, with a backlog of 1.3 million people who have been issued removal notices but remain in the country, according to the Migration Policy Institute.
Research by David Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, suggests that Trump’s broad approach to enforcement had unintended consequences. Rather than focusing deportations on individuals with criminal records, Trump’s policy targeted all undocumented immigrants, filling detention centers with asylum-seekers and resulting in family separations. This approach, Bier argues, led to fewer deportations of individuals with criminal histories.
Challenges for Future Mass Deportations
While Trump has pledged to increase high-profile immigration raids, experts question whether the system can handle such a dramatic uptick in deportations. According to Bier, building the infrastructure to detain and deport millions would far exceed current capacity, noting that ICE has about 41,000 detention beds nationwide.
John Sandweg, former acting director of ICE, expressed concerns that Trump’s approach could bypass the court system to speed up deportations, impacting families with U.S. citizen members. Sandweg noted, “When you make deportation about hitting a number, you’re not just talking about criminals. You’re talking about families, and that’s the real concern.”
