The competition between the United States and China in space has grown into a complex race, blending scientific ambition with geopolitical strategy. Both countries aim to lead in space exploration and forge partnerships that align with their respective visions for space governance. As this rivalry intensifies, countries worldwide face choices on aligning with either the US-backed Artemis Accords or China’s International Lunar Research Station (ILRS).
The Artemis Accords
Since its launch in 2020, the Artemis Accords have become the backbone of US efforts to build an international coalition for lunar exploration.
Originally signed by seven nations, the Accords have now expanded to include 47 countries, with recent signatories like Chile, the Dominican Republic, and Cyprus joining in October. This rapid expansion reflects the broad appeal of the US-led initiative, which advocates for principles of transparency, open data-sharing, and non-interference zones on the moon.
According to NASA, the Artemis program’s success depends heavily on international partnerships. By working collaboratively, signatories benefit from shared costs and reduced risks. This collaborative framework underpins the Artemis Accords, which not only establishes guidelines for exploration but also positions the US as a leader in establishing rules for lunar activities.
China’s Growing Space Network
China’s answer to the Artemis Accords is the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), developed in partnership with Russia.
In 2017, the China National Space Administration (CNSA) officially launched the ILRS cooperation initiative to the international community. To date, over 40 institutions from across the world have signed cooperation documents with China.
This initiative aims to provide an alternative model for lunar research, focusing on inclusivity for nations that may lack significant space capabilities.
Chinese state media emphasizes that the ILRS paves the way for “a new era of global space collaboration,” attracting nations interested in participating in lunar missions but seeking a model independent of US influence. This approach highlights China’s commitment to expanding its space partnerships, even though the ILRS lacks the same international reach as the Artemis Accords.
Space Program Objectives and Resources
The US and China’s space programs highlight differing priorities and resources. The US-led Artemis program aims to establish a permanent human presence on the moon, using the Lunar Gateway as a launchpad for deeper space missions, emphasizing sustainable lunar exploration as a step toward Mars. China, on the other hand, has accelerated its lunar missions and crewed spaceflight advances, notably with the Chang’e-5 mission returning lunar samples and the Tiangong space station supporting continuous crewed missions. By 2023, China nearly matched the US in satellite numbers in low Earth orbit, adding approximately 250 satellites between 2019 and 2021, and investing in anti-satellite (ASAT) and satellite maintenance technologies, like refueling satellites, to strengthen space resilience.
Private Sector Contributions
The US space program benefits significantly from private sector collaboration, with companies like SpaceX and Boeing fostering rapid technological advancements. Recent entrant Matter Intelligence, backed by Mark Cuban and Toyota, is developing imaging technology with over 500 times the current satellite data density, enhancing Earth observation and climate tracking. China’s space industry, however, remains largely state-controlled, which can slow technological adoption. Nonetheless, China has advanced significantly, deploying robotic arms on satellites to manipulate objects in orbit, although the US private sector’s flexibility supports a broader strategy.
Regional Allies and Strategic Partnerships
The US leverages longstanding alliances to attract global partners, with Japan set to join Artemis missions in the 2020s and support from European allies strengthening its coalition. China focuses on partnerships in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, aligning with nations often outside traditional space alliances. Although the ILRS doesn’t match the global reach of Artemis, China’s partnerships underscore its strategy to expand influence in regions less engaged by the US in space collaborations.
Counter-Space Capabilities
Both the US and China have advanced counter-space capabilities, raising concerns about potential space conflicts. China’s ASAT technologies, including missiles and lasers targeting satellites, have spurred the US to reinforce its defenses, with new investments aimed at smaller, less expensive satellites that “flood the zone,” complicating adversary attacks. Additionally, the US is progressing in hypersonic missile research, while exploring countermeasures, such as laser-based technologies, to mitigate the threat posed by China’s growing hypersonic capabilities.
India’s Rising Role in the Global Space Arena
India’s Chandrayaan-3 mission, launched on 14 July 2023, marked a historic milestone as India became the fourth country, after the US, Soviet Union, and China, to achieve a soft lunar landing. Touching down near the moon’s south pole on 23 August, the mission deployed a rover to conduct in-situ experiments. Overcoming the 2019 Chandrayaan-2 setback, Chandrayaan-3 showcases India’s resilience and strengthens its competitive stance in Asia’s space race, particularly in response to China’s influence. This mission not only elevates India’s technological capabilities and national pride but also boosts its private space industry, fostering innovation.
Japan’s Legacy and Future in Space Exploration
Japan’s Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) successfully landed on the moon on January 19, 2024, making Japan the fifth country to achieve a soft landing on the lunar surface.
Japan has long been a pioneer in space, starting in the 1950s with Professor Hideo Itokawa and achieving satellite launch capability by 1970. The formation of JAXA in 2003 unified Japan’s space efforts, leading to landmark missions like Hayabusa and Hayabusa2 for asteroid sampling, the Kibo Experiment Module on the ISS, and the Akatsuki Venus Orbiter, highlighting Japan’s expertise in robotics and planetary exploration. With ongoing projects in Earth observation and lunar missions, including the upcoming MMX mission to Mars’ moons, Japan maintains its position as a peaceful leader in scientific space exploration.
A Multipolar Space Future
As the competition between the US and China along with other super powers in space intensifies, the world is witnessing a shift from a singular superpower dominance to a more multipolar space landscape. This transformation reflects both the aspirations of individual countries to assert their presence in space and the strategic imperatives of the US and China to build alliances that reinforce their influence.
Ultimately, the race to win space allies is not just about reaching the moon first or controlling lunar resources; it is about establishing a sustainable framework for collaboration that benefits all participants. Whether through the Artemis Accords or the ILRS, the future of space exploration will likely hinge on shared principles, innovation, and a balance of power that accommodates diverse interests in a challenging environment.
