Election day in the United States is just a day away.
Approximately 244 million people are eligible to vote to choose their next president, on 5 November. Polls will open at 7 am local time and close at 8 pm in most states, although times may vary.
But what is most notable is that even before the polling day, more than 75 million Americans have already cast their vote, according to the University of Florida (UF) election lab. This has been possible through early in-person or mail-in ballots.
Early voting has become a key trend in the US, allowing people flexibility in their schedule, either by helping to avoid poor weather, or long lines, or any unexpected change of plan.
But what is early voting? And how does it work?
There are 50 States in the US and the district of Columbia – and all states – except Mississippi, New Hampshire and Alabama – allow early voting.
Of the 47 states that allow early in-person voting, eight have all-mail voting. In these states, each eligible, registered voter is sent a ballot, which can either be returned by mail, or dropped off at designated site during the early voting period.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NSCL), the length of early in-person voting varies for each state, but is roughly between 3-46 days. The average number of days of early in-person voting is 20.
Early voting typically ends just a few days before Election Day.
During early voting period, registered voters can head to their polling location within the early voting time frame and cast a ballot early. Most states begin counting those ballots on election day, and some require officials to wait until polls are closed to begin counting.
Some states also offer a version of early voting called “in-person absentee” voting, in which a voter can obtain and submit an absentee ballot in person at a polling place before election day.
In addition to early in-person voting, there is also mail-in voting.
It requires voters to send in their ballot by mail and send it back before the deadline. It is considered to be extremely secure in the US and instances of fraud are quite rare. In states like Virginia, early voting began more than two weeks ahead of Election Day, with many absentee ballots already cast.
Who has been voting early?
So far, data from the UF election lab tracker reveals:
- In-person early votes: 40,719,518
- Mail ballots returned: 34,374, 356
Of these, in-person early voting by party registration reveals an interesting insight:
- 31.4% Democrats
- 39.9% Republicans
- 28.7% None/Minor
Insert graphic/table “In-Person Early by Party Registration” from this URL: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Another interesting insight is that returned mail ballots by party registration include:
- 42.5% Democrats
- 33.5% Republicans
- 24.1% None/Minor
It must be noted that this data is not actual votes. By federal law, election officials do not begin counting ballots until Election Day, although they may start the process of preparing ballots for counting in advance.
Data from the UF election lab also reveals that nearly 50-60% of early voters are adults in the age group of 26-65 years.
Benefits of early voting
• More flexibility in voting: Early voting helps Americans to easily schedule their work, travel, health, or other issues and encourages more voters to cast their ballot.
• Predicting trends: Poll pundits, political parties, and media organizations closely watch the early voting trends to predict what might happen on Election Day and devise their strategies accordingly. One also gets a sense of voter turnout on the Election Day. It also helps analysts and contestants prepare for election results.
• Catching euphoria: A sense of voter excitement pervades the atmosphere as millions of voters choose to cast an early ballot.
However, despite its advantages, early voting has faced some controversy.
During the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump had alleged fraud in mail-in voting. These claims were debunked, but fuelled debate about election security.
How is early voting a game changer?
As the US remains deeply polarised, thin margins are separating Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate.
In terms of early voting, women make up 55% of early voters and men 45%, according to a Politico analysis of early voting in a number of states.
The gender gap is particularly pronounced in several swing states, where women are voting in higher numbers than men.
This changes the game in several states because women, especially suburban women and women of colour, are seen as a crucial demographic for the Harris campaign.
However at the same time, more Republicans have chosen to cast their vote early in 2024 compared to previous years.
There is also a mixed picture in some key states, which could be a big game changer for the 2024 election results.
For example, in the key state of Georgia, more than 50% of eligible voters have already cast their vote, showing that voter enthusiasm is high.
These early voters in Georgia are mostly white old Americans, which could mean an advantage for Trump.
Trump is also getting good news in Nevada, where more registered Republicans have cast ballots than registered Democrats, a dramatic break from past elections
However, this doesn’t take into account independent voters, and in addition to Georgia, there are other swing states, which will add to the game changing nature of the US election in 2024.
These states together – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – are thought to hold the keys to the White House.
Till then, the growth in early voting tells us that there is a fundamental shift in American voting behaviour.
And this will likely be a continued trend toward more flexible voting options in future elections.
