The European Commission’s latest accession report spotlights ten countries aiming to join the European Union and outlines the extensive political, economic, and social reforms needed for membership. Each candidate faces a long path, with complex requirements reflecting the bloc’s high standards for governance, legal alignment, and human rights protections.
The Road to EU Membership
For these aspiring members, EU entry offers the potential for economic relief and political stability. Yet, achieving membership means meeting rigorous criteria across 35 policy “chapters” covering critical areas from trade to environmental standards and judiciary reform. Montenegro, the most advanced candidate, has opened negotiations on 33 chapters, while countries like Ukraine and Moldova are still in the early stages. The Commission’s report provides a closer look at each nation’s progress through the lens of economic performance, political resilience, and reform measures required for accession.
Ukraine: Accelerated Entry Amid Conflict
EU Status: Candidate since June 2022
Economic Metrics: War impact on GDP (forecasted -18.3% drop for 2024)
Debt Restructuring: Selective default rating due to sovereign debt restructuring
Ukraine’s bid accelerated following the 2022 invasion by Russia, with EU membership seen as crucial for stability. Yet, Ukraine faces a debt crisis, with its sovereign debt restructuring leading to a “selective default” status. The country’s economy remains fragile, with an estimated GDP contraction of 18.3% this year. The EU remains a critical partner, promising further support to stabilize its economy, but the debt restructuring limits its immediate creditworthiness, impacting investment prospects.
Serbia: Economic Stability with a Geopolitical Balancing Act
EU Status: Candidate since 2010
Key Achievement: BBB- credit rating (first in the region)
Chapters Opened: 22 of 35
Serbia’s recent upgrade to a BBB- credit rating by S&P Global, achieved in October, sets it apart among Western Balkan countries. This investment-grade rating signifies reduced borrowing costs and marks the nation’s steady economic progress. With 22 negotiation chapters open, Serbia is well-positioned but remains entangled in regional disputes. The ongoing Kosovo issue and alignment with Russia complicate Serbia’s EU bid, especially given its reliance on Russian gas (over 80% of imports). Serbia’s geopolitical ties may hinder full EU integration despite its economic gains.
Moldova: Reforms Against Crime and Corruption
EU Status: Candidate since June 2022
Chapters Opened: Early stages
Moldova’s EU bid includes extensive reforms to combat corruption and reduce the influence of oligarchs. EU data indicates Moldova is still grappling with high corruption levels, scoring 34 out of 100 on the Corruption Perceptions Index. Although EU accession talks began in 2024, Moldova has significant ground to cover in judicial reform, human rights protection, and governance. Moldova’s EU trade makes up 52% of its exports, underscoring the economic imperative for membership.
Turkey: Dormant Talks Amid Political Headwinds
Turkey: Dormant Talks Amid Political Headwinds
EU Status: Candidate since 1999
Chapters Opened: 16, with most talks stalled
Turkey, with 85 million people, represents the largest potential new member. Yet, political concerns over governance and human rights have frozen its EU aspirations. Turkey’s exports to the EU constitute nearly 42% of its trade, and the EU is Turkey’s largest trade partner. Nonetheless, EU accession is not a political focus within Turkey, reflecting entrenched differences in democratic governance and regional policy alignments.
North Macedonia and Albania: Paired Progress and Setbacks
EU Status: Candidates since 2005 (North Macedonia) and 2014 (Albania)
Chapters Opened: Talks remain linked.
In a unique arrangement, the EU has coupled North Macedonia’s and Albania’s accession bids, yet progress is stalled over issues tied to Bulgarian objections to North Macedonia’s language and history. North Macedonia made concessions in 2019 by changing its name, but Bulgaria’s veto over cultural disagreements continues to delay talks. The EU prioritizes stability in the Western Balkans, but each country’s progress hinges on neighborly diplomacy.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: EU’s 14-Point Reform Roadmap
EU Status: Candidate since December 2022
Chapters Opened: None yet, reforms in process
Bosnia’s EU ambitions focus on fulfilling a 14-point roadmap aimed at democratic reform, the rule of law, and human rights. The EU remains Bosnia’s largest trading partner, with Bosnia sending 70% of its exports to EU markets. However, Bosnia must address internal divisions and governance challenges to advance in negotiations, with the next EU assessment scheduled for March 2024.
The Credit Divide: Serbia’s Success vs. Ukraine’s Struggle
Among the ten hopefuls, Serbia’s new credit rating elevates it above the rest, reducing debt costs and drawing foreign investment. By contrast, Ukraine’s selective default status hampers its financial standing despite its geopolitical importance to the EU. Serbia’s achievement highlights the influence of economic stability on EU accession prospects, as financial resilience often aligns with political preparedness.
As these nations navigate the EU’s rigorous standards, the journey reflects both regional challenges and each candidate’s resilience. With varied starting points, the economic and political metrics shaping each bid underscore the complex balancing act of EU integration.
