- Over 65 million mail-in ballots were cast in 2020, predominantly favoring Democratic candidates.
- In 2020, Trump’s initial lead in Pennsylvania faded with Biden’s mail-in ballot gains.
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, two terms—’red mirage’ and ‘blue shift’—have become critical to understanding how votes will be counted and perceived. These terms reflect voting patterns linked to how and when ballots are counted. The ‘red mirage’ refers to an initial Republican lead as in-person ballots are counted first, often leaning conservative, while mail-in ballots—frequently counted later and favoring Democrats—create a ‘blue shift.’
These dynamics, which have intensified since the pandemic drove increased mail-in voting, have led to delays in final results and have been weaponized in recent elections, particularly by former President Donald Trump, to question election legitimacy. In 2020, the red mirage led to allegations of fraud as Trump’s early lead diminished when mail-in ballots were tallied days after Election Day. As we approach another election, with swing states employing varied voting laws, the stage is set for a potentially similar pattern.
Defining the Red Mirage and Blue Shift Phenomena
The red mirage and blue shift are patterns tied to vote-counting timelines and the demographics of in-person versus mail-in voting. On election night, in-person votes—often favoring Republicans—are counted first, leading to an early ‘mirage’ of a GOP lead in closely contested states. As mail-in ballots, which tend to skew Democratic, are processed later, this lead may disappear, resulting in a blue shift. For example, in 2020, mail-in ballots in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia ultimately secured Biden’s victory days after Election Day.
According to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), counties favoring Biden in 2020 counted ballots 15-20% slower than Trump-leaning areas due to mail-in volume and state-specific processing laws. This phenomenon also surfaced in 2016, where Hillary Clinton saw a surge in the popular vote count after conceding, though it was insufficient to alter the electoral outcome. The continued presence of the blue shift signals a need for public understanding of delayed vote counts to maintain trust in the election process.
State Voting Laws
Each state’s voting laws dictate when and how ballots are counted, impacting the speed and sequence of vote totals. States like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan restrict ballot processing until Election Day, often delaying results in areas with high mail-in voting.
In 2020, these states saw extended counts, with Pennsylvania only completing 95% of its mail-in ballot count four days post-Election Day. The Brennan Center for Justice identified Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as ‘choke-point states’ due to regulations barring ballot processing in advance. Conversely, Michigan and Georgia have since updated laws allowing pre-Election Day ballot processing, which is expected to expedite results.
In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced that most early ballots will be reported by 8 p.m. on election night, representing up to 75% of total votes. North Carolina has also amended its mail-in ballot law, now requiring ballots to arrive by Election Day to be counted, which may streamline final tallies. Understanding these state-specific rules can provide voters with a clearer expectation of result timelines and reduce the impact of misinformation.
2020 as a Case Study
The 2020 election is an illustrative case for the red mirage and blue shift, offering insight into the effects of voting methods on election perception. Due to pandemic-driven mail-in voting, the U.S. saw a historic 65 million mail-in ballots, predominantly favoring Biden, while Trump led among in-person voters. By midnight on Election Day, Trump held leads in key states, only to see these diminish as mail-in ballots were counted over the following days.
In Pennsylvania, Biden’s lead only emerged on November 6, and CNN projected his win by November 7. The delay fueled misinformation, with Trump calling it ‘fraudulent’ and challenging the legitimacy of mail-in ballots. An MIT study revealed that counties with predominantly mail-in ballots counted votes 2-3 times slower than in-person ballots. The experience highlights how the red mirage and blue shift can fuel doubt and controversy, particularly when voter education on the mechanics of vote counting is insufficient.
Misinformation Challenges
The gradual shift from an initial GOP lead to a Democratic victory has been misinterpreted by some as irregularities or fraud. In the absence of clear information, periods between the counting of in-person and mail-in votes have created a ‘vulnerability window’ exploited by disinformation campaigns.
Pennsylvania’s elections chief Al Schmidt noted that gaps in the counting process were leveraged in 2020 to sow doubts about the election’s legitimacy. To counteract this, many states have intensified efforts to communicate expected delays and clarify voting procedures. However, experts stress that without a stronger public understanding of how and why these delays happen, confidence may falter.
According to the Pew Research Center, only 55% of Americans in 2023 trust that elections are fairly conducted, a significant decline from pre-2020 levels. Clear and consistent messaging from election officials and media outlets is vital to counteracting misconceptions and maintaining trust in the vote count.
The 2000 Florida Recount
The 2000 election and its recount provide a historical context for delays in close races. The contested election in Florida, where recounts and debates over ‘hanging chads’ extended the decision for 36 days, demonstrated how delayed outcomes can escalate tensions. The Supreme Court’s decision to halt the recount effectively handed the presidency to George W. Bush, underscoring the impact of delayed resolutions in tight races.
Although election systems and technology have improved since 2000, recounts in swing states or close races could still lead to lengthy counts in 2024. This history of prolonged counting underscores that delays are not unprecedented in U.S. democracy, offering perspective on the importance of accurate, rather than immediate, election results.
Implications for Voter Behavior and Election Perception
The red mirage and blue shift phenomena can impact voter confidence, especially in polarized environments. Public perception of an election’s legitimacy can be influenced by early leads, leading to frustration and skepticism when outcomes shift. According to the Brookings Institution, understanding of vote-counting delays among voters can improve acceptance of certified results. Analysts note that educating voters on these patterns could help mitigate reactionary claims of fraud and encourage patience until official certification.
The 2024 election’s reliance on mail-in voting, especially in states like California where every registered voter receives a mail ballot, suggests that the blue shift will likely be a factor once again. Ensuring that voters comprehend this shift may reduce misunderstandings and discontent when final results diverge from early returns.
