Decades of occupation and conflict have given rise to a formidable alliance in the Middle East: the Axis of Resistance—a coalition of regional movements including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Houthis in Yemen.
United by a common cause—the liberation of Palestine—this coalition of states and non-state actors is transforming the region’s power dynamics. As Israel faces a multi-front war, the question is no longer about whether the Axis is a threat, but how it is reshaping the future of the Middle East.
The Historical Evolution of the Axis of Resistance
The Axis of Resistance didn’t emerge overnight. Its roots can be traced back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution when Ayatollah Khomeini positioned Palestine as central to Iran’s revolutionary mission. From the outset, Khomeini’s vision framed the Zionist occupation of Palestine as not just an Arab issue but an Islamic one, calling for global Muslim solidarity against what he saw as Western imperialism in the region. The cause of liberating Palestine became an ideological unifier that transcended sectarian and national divisions, laying the groundwork for the Axis of Resistance.
Throughout the 1980s, Iran, alongside Syria, began to offer military and logistical support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, a Shia resistance movement that opposed Israeli occupation. This cooperation grew following Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, as Iran and Syria worked together to strengthen Hezbollah, which would go on to play a key role in expelling Israeli forces from Lebanon by 2000.
Hezbollah’s victory greatly influenced other resistance groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine. Inspired by Hezbollah, they strengthened ties with Iran, receiving military aid, training, and weapons technology. This cooperation became the core of the Axis of Resistance, which now operates across multiple fronts, including Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
The Strategic Impact of the Axis
The coordinated military efforts of the Axis of Resistance have significantly shifted power dynamics in the Middle East. Since the latest conflict began in October 2023, Israel has faced attacks on six fronts—Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Hamas claims to have fired over 5,000 rockets into Israel from Gaza on October 7, 2023, while Hezbollah has launched more than 8,000 rockets, anti-tank missiles, and explosive UAVs at Israeli targets since the war’s onset. These coordinated strikes have overwhelmed Israel’s defense systems, revealing critical vulnerabilities.
The Axis’s growing missile and drone capabilities have proven to be game-changers. Iran, a primary military backer of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, has enhanced its missile technology in the past decade. In October 2024, Iran fired over 300 missiles at Israeli military installations, with 40% bypassing the Iron Dome and hitting key infrastructure in cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad have also advanced militarily, with Hamas’s Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades launching more than 1,100 missiles in just 72 hours, causing extensive damage. This capability growth is largely due to support from Iran and Hezbollah, who have shared missile and drone expertise.
Drone technology has also expanded. Hezbollah and Hamas now use drones with up to 400 kilometers of range, evading Israeli radar and targeting military bases and offshore gas platforms. Additionally, other regional groups like the Houthis continue targeting Israeli and U.S. interests, intensifying the conflict.
Economic Implications of the Conflict
The ongoing conflict has also imposed significant economic costs, particularly on Israel. In 2023, Israel’s defense spending was around $27.5 billion, but the Bank of Israel chief warns war against Hamas will cost $67 billion in 2023-2025. The cost of intercepting missiles using the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems is staggering—each interception costs between $40,000 and $100,000. As missile barrages continue from multiple fronts, the financial strain on Israel is becoming increasingly apparent.
On the other hand, the Axis of Resistance operates on a much more cost-effective model. Iran’s annual military expenditure stands at about $10.3 billion, significantly lower than Israel’s. Yet, Iran’s military strategy, centered on asymmetric warfare, allows it to achieve significant military gains with relatively low costs. A Fajr-5 missile, commonly used by Hamas and Hezbollah, costs around $5,000, a fraction of what it costs Israel to intercept. This economic asymmetry is tilting the scales, allowing the Axis to inflict considerable damage on Israel while expending far fewer resources.
Political and Ideological Unity: Palestine at the Core
The Axis of Resistance is more than just a military coalition; it is unified by a political and ideological mission. Central to this unity is the Palestinian cause. This shared objective of liberating Palestine has allowed the Axis to build deep, transnational ties.
Iran underscores Palestine’s strategic importance in the Axis’s vision. Fathi al-Shiqaqi, founder of Islamic Jihad, emphasized the central role of Palestine in the broader Islamic struggle. This unity has been further solidified in response to U.S.-backed deals like the Abraham Accords, which the Axis views as betrayals of the Palestinian cause. The assassination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2024, intended to weaken the Axis, only galvanized its members, showcasing the resilience of this alliance.
A Shift in Power Dynamics
For years, Israel enjoyed military dominance in the region, conducting swift wars with minimal losses. However, the rise of the Axis of Resistance has disrupted this status quo. The coalition’s ability to wage multi-front conflicts using cost-effective strategies and advanced military technologies has exposed Israel’s vulnerabilities.
Now, Israel faces a prolonged and resource-intensive conflict. The Axis of Resistance, far from being a mere collection of proxy groups, has become a central force shaping the Middle East’s future, challenging Israel’s dominance and reshaping the region’s geopolitical dynamics.
Iran’s Expanding Influence
Iran’s proxy network, spanning Iraq, Syria, and beyond, is central to Tehran’s strategy for expanding its influence and countering Washington and its allies. While these partnerships are not about direct control, they reflect Iran’s ability to navigate shifting regional dynamics. For instance, aligning Hamas under the Revolutionary Guard’s guidance strengthens its stance against Israel amid regional normalization with Arab states.
These alliances challenge Iran’s adversaries, who must manage complex relationships and conflicts. This intricate web, with Iran at its core, has reshaped the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape, heightening tensions with global implications.
