One year since the Gaza conflict began!
As US ally Israel lashes out at Iranian proxies, a perpetual multi-front conflict that threatens to set the whole region ablaze takes shape.
A year after Hamas militants launched a devastating assault from Gaza, killing 1,200 Israelis, the conflict has spiraled into a multi-front conflict that threatens to engulf the Middle East in what some fear could become a new “forever war.”
The violence escalated early on 24 September 2024 as Israel launched “limited ground incursions” into southern Lebanon, targeting infrastructure belonging to the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. This followed a week of air strikes that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrullah and displaced an estimated 1 million of Lebanon’s 5.8 million population.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bellicose rhetoric has added further fuel to the fire, suggesting in a video message on 30 September 2024 potential military action against Iran – which leads the anti-Israel “Axis of Resistance” and even regime change in Tehran. His statements were applauded by Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and former Middle East policy architect, who encouraged Israel in a lengthy social media post to “finish the job.”
Iran wasted no time in responding to the threats, launching a barrage of 181 ballistic missiles at Israeli military targets within 24 hours. The Iranian mission to the United Nations said that any further Israeli aggression would be met with a “devastating response”. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian later addressed Netanyahu directly, warning on X: “This is only a corner of our power. Do not enter into a conflict with Iran.”
Netanyahu promptly retorted, claiming Iran had “made a big mistake” and would “have to pay for it”.
This hot-tempered back-and-forth exposes a conflict caught in a relentless cycle of escalation. Each time international pressure mounts for a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel ramps up its military activities against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, shifting diplomatic efforts toward preventing a broader regional war. “Several times during this war, Israel has tried to provoke, essentially, a war between the US and Iran,” said Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut. The involved parties find themselves “locked in” to a pattern whereby each seeks to gain “escalation dominance”, he said – aiming to “escalate to levels that the other side cannot.”
The current cycle of violence can be traced back to early April 2023 when Israel, under pressure from Washington to avoid mass civilian casualties in Rafah, targeted Iran’s embassy complex in Damascus, killing two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals. After intense negotiations via Arab nations aimed at avoiding a widening conflict, Iran launched a largely performative response against Israel in the form of waves of slow-moving drones and cruise missiles, most of which were easily intercepted. Then in late July 2024, as diplomatic momentum again built for a phased resolution to the Gaza conflict, Israel escalated further by assassinating both Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s military chief, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on successive days. Haniyeh’s killing was particularly provocative, occurring mere hours after Iran’s new president was sworn in and under the noses of Iranian security services.
A protester raises a Palestinian flag and a poster bearing pictures of slain Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh (left) and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah in Rabat on September 28, 2024. Rather than pursuing a back-room de-escalation deal with Tehran, the US reinforced its military presence in the region, deploying additional air, land, and sea forces. This show of strength served as a warning to Iran, which opted to hold back rather than retaliate. The most recent escalation began last month with the detonation of devices used by Hezbollah operatives, culminating in the assassination of Nasrullah in a targeted bombing that destroyed an entire residential block in southern Beirut on September 27, 2024.
Analysts who spoke to This Week in Asia said they had predicted Iran’s increased involvement, despite its reluctance, given the rising threat of Israeli air strikes. “A significant portion of the US political establishment loathes Iran” and wants Israel to attack it, said Monica Marks, a professor of Middle Eastern politics at New York University Abu Dhabi. A protester in Los Angeles holds a poster calling for the US to end weapons shipments to Israel on September 24, 2024. US President Joe Biden “is saying he wants regional de-escalation whilst delivering a seemingly endless stream of weapons and political cover to Israel”, she said. “So, there is a real likelihood that Israel could escalate this into not only a ground invasion of Lebanon but a series of more direct military attacks on Iran.”
Netanyahu was “seizing the opportunity” to act before November’s presidential election in the US, journalist Marks added. Jonathan Panikoff, a former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East, said that Tehran would prefer to stay out of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict unless directly attacked. It would appear Iran’s last missile strikes against Israel were designed to convey a different message than those in April 2024. This time, Iran offered no advanced warnings through Arab intermediaries, with US officials only receiving alerts hours before the missile launches. In contrast to the slower drones and subsonic missiles used earlier, Iran unleashed supersonic ballistic missiles against military targets in Israel, reducing the window for interception by both Israeli and US forces. Although Iran aimed at specific military installations to avoid civilian casualties, its missile salvo was clearly a retaliation for the recent assassinations of key figures, including Nasrullah, Haniyeh, and Iranian commanders.
The threat of all-out war
The possibility of an all-out war looms as tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, with Israel expected to intensify its military actions against Hezbollah. The Israeli government aims to pressure Hezbollah to withdraw from the border, allowing the return of 70,000 Israeli citizens evacuated a year ago. If Hezbollah refuses, Israel may re-establish the buffer zone it occupied in southern Lebanon from 1985 to 2000.
Israel’s broader goal is to weaken Hezbollah’s military capabilities. Should the conflict intensify, Hezbollah is likely to retaliate by targeting Israeli military installations, with missiles and drones reaching deep into the country, including cities like Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Jerusalem.
Both sides appear to be avoiding full-scale war, with Israel calculating that Hezbollah might endure limited strikes without escalating to a ground war. However, experts warn that continued tensions could lead to significant destruction and loss of life in both Israel and Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s withdrawal of its Radwan special forces from the border could avert a larger conflict. Yet, the group’s demand that Israel cease military operations in Gaza is seen as unrealistic, indicating Hezbollah’s leadership may prefer to avoid a full-blown war with Israel.
