Jordan’s ballot box echoes Gaza’s cries as Islamists seize their biggest win yet
In a significant political shift, the Islamist party, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), emerged as the largest bloc in Jordan’s recent parliamentary election. The IAF, affiliated with the regional Muslim Brotherhood, secured 31 out of the 138 seats, marking their most substantial victory since 1989, when they claimed 22 of 80 seats. This win highlights growing public dissatisfaction, particularly driven by the Israel-Hamas conflict, which Jordan’s largely Palestinian population sees through a lens of solidarity with the Palestinians.
Revamped Electoral Law: A New Era for Jordanian Politics?
This election, conducted under a revamped 2022 electoral law, is also notable for its structural changes aimed at increasing party representation. The reform allocated 41 seats specifically for political parties, a significant move to loosen the historical grip of tribal influence on Jordanian politics. While the monarchy remains the central authority, holding near-absolute power, including appointing governments and dissolving parliament, these reforms seek to legitimize the parliamentary process.
In addition to the rise of Islamist influence, the election marked progress for women’s participation in Jordan’s political life, with 27 women securing seats, thanks to the new system. This signals an effort to modernize the country’s governance, although voter turnout, at just 32%, indicates broader political disengagement or disillusionment among Jordanians.
Election Results Breakdown:
- Islamic Action Front (IAF): 31 seats (22% of total seats)
- Other Parties: 107 seats (78% of total seats)
- Total Seats in Parliament: 138
Voter Turnout:
- Total Voter Turnout: 32%
- Eligible Voters: Approx. 4 million (estimated)
Actual Voters: Approx. 1.28 million
Women’s Representation:
- Women Elected: 27 seats (19.6% of total seats)
Seats Allocated for Political Parties Under New Law:
- Political Party Seats: 41 seats (29.7% of total seats)
- Remaining Seats: 97 seats (70.3% of total seats)
Economic Stats:
- Public Debt: $50 billion
- Unemployment Rate: 21%
The Role of the Israel-Hamas Conflict
The IAF capitalized on growing anger over Israel’s war with Hamas, using the conflict as a rallying point for voters sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Jordan is home to a large Palestinian population, which, despite the government’s diplomatic relations with Israel, has consistently expressed strong support for Palestinian resistance movements. The IAF’s leader, Wael al-Saqqa, emphasized that the election result reflects a popular endorsement of their stance against the 1994 peace treaty with Israel and their support for Hamas.
The IAF’s success in organizing large pro-Hamas protests during the election campaign further cemented their appeal. Murad Adailah, head of the Muslim Brotherhood, called their victory a “popular referendum” against the peace treaty and in support of the Palestinian cause. This reflects a broader regional dynamic in which Islamist groups have been able to harness public anger over foreign policy issues, positioning themselves as defenders of national and Islamic interests.
Domestic Challenges and Economic Woes
Jordan faces significant domestic challenges. The country’s public debt has ballooned to nearly $50 billion, and unemployment reached 21% in the first quarter of this year. King Abdullah II, who has ruled since 1999, sees these elections as a stepping stone toward political reforms aimed at addressing these issues and safeguarding the country from external conflicts. However, his government’s economic struggles and the region’s volatile geopolitics present daunting obstacles to achieving these goals.
The election also takes place against the backdrop of Jordan’s precarious security situation, with conflicts raging on several of its borders—particularly in Syria and Iraq. King Abdullah has maintained that stable, representative governments formed through parliamentary majorities are crucial to protecting Jordan from external threats and fostering domestic political stability. However, the Islamist victory and low voter turnout indicate a growing discontent with the status quo.
Islamist Ascendancy: Regional Implications
Jordan’s election results could have broader implications for the region, especially given the IAF’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, a movement that has wielded significant influence in countries like Egypt, Tunisia, and Syria. While the Brotherhood has faced crackdowns in several countries, including Egypt under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, its Jordanian wing remains politically active and popular.
The election result may encourage other Islamist movements in the region, particularly in countries where political space for opposition movements is limited. However, it also presents challenges for Jordan’s relations with Western allies, particularly the U.S. and the EU, both of which classify Hamas as a terrorist organization and have been staunch supporters of Israel.
What Lies Ahead?
The IAF’s resurgence in parliament places new pressure on Jordan’s monarchy, which must navigate between maintaining strong ties with Western allies and addressing the demands of a population increasingly supportive of Islamist politics and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. King Abdullah’s government is likely to face increased calls for the abrogation of the peace treaty with Israel, a move that could destabilize the region further.
The road ahead for Jordan remains fraught with challenges. The Islamist party’s success in the election underscores the importance of addressing public grievances, particularly those related to foreign policy and economic hardships. As the country moves forward, it will be essential to balance political reforms with the need to maintain security and stability in a turbulent region.
Jordan’s election results demonstrate that while the monarchy retains ultimate authority, the political landscape is shifting. The rise of the IAF marks the beginning of a new phase in Jordanian politics, one that reflects deep-seated public sentiments on the Palestinian issue and the growing influence of Islamist movements across the region.
