The World Trade Organization (WTO) recently revealed that Bangladesh’s export value in 2023 is approximately US$9 billion lower than the figure reported by the country’s Export Development Bureau (EPB). According to the WTO’s interactive tool, ‘World Trade Statistics 2023 – Key Insights and Trends’, released on August 1, Bangladesh exported garments worth USD 38.4 billion in 2023, capturing 7.4 percent of the global market. This figure contrasts sharply with the USD47.4 billion reported by the EPB.
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In May, discrepancies in export data uncovered by Bangladesh Bank highlighted a US$10 billion shortfall for the last nine months of FY’24 based on updated estimates from the National Board of Revenue (NBR). In response to these discrepancies, the EPB has suspended the publication of export data for three months starting in July.
Despite these challenges, including rising production costs due to increasing fuel and raw material prices, Bangladesh remains the world’s second-largest apparel exporter after China.
What WTO Data Shows?
Despite these challenges—ranging from global market fluctuations to rising production costs driven by increasing prices for raw materials and energy—Bangladesh retains its position as the world’s second-largest clothing exporter after China. The country’s market share has surged from 2.5% in 2005 and 4.2% in 2010 to 7.4% in 2023.
China remains the largest clothing exporter, though its share of global exports has declined from 36.6% in 2010 to 31.6% in 2023, with exports amounting to $165 billion. Meanwhile, Vietnam, the third-largest exporter, increased its market share from 2.9% in 2010 to 6.0% in 2023, exporting $31 billion worth of clothing.
Bangladesh’s Clothing Export Market:
- Position: 2nd largest clothing exporter globally, after China.
- Market Share:
- 2005: 2.5%
- 2010: 4.2%
- 2023: 7.4%
In 2023, Bangladesh exported approximately $7 billion more in apparel than Vietnam, a stark contrast to 2018 when both countries reported similar export figures of around $32 billion.
In 2020, Bangladesh faced a setback, slipping to third place in the global clothing export market as Vietnam ascended. However, by 2021, Bangladesh reclaimed its position as the second-largest exporter of clothing worldwide. Türkiye emerged as the fourth-largest clothing exporter, capturing a 3.6% share of the global market with apparel exports totaling approximately $19 billion in 2023. Following closely is India, which holds a 3.0% market share and exported garments valued at $15 billion.
China’s Clothing Export Market:
- Market Share:
- 2010: 36.6%
- 2023: 31.6%
Despite these successes in clothing exports, the WTO’s digital data platform indicated a decline in Bangladesh’s standing among the largest merchandise exporters, dropping to 55th place in 2023 from 49th in 2022. The nation’s total exports have been on a downward trajectory over the last three years, from FY22 to FY24, with the projected total exports for FY24 estimated to be $10 billion lower than figures reported by government bodies.
Vietnam’s Clothing Export Market:
- Market Share:
- 2010: 2.9%
- 2023: 6.0%
EPB and Bangladesh Bank Collaborate to Fix Export Data Issues
The Bangladesh Bank addressed the recent revision in export data in its monetary policy resolution for the first half of FY25, published on its website—a departure from its usual practice of holding a press conference for such announcements. “The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) discussed the recent revision in the export data, explaining that this impacts figures for the last three fiscal years, FY22 to FY24,” the resolution stated. It further noted, “the revisions indicate a consistent decline in exports over this period, with estimated total exports for FY2024 expected to be around $42 billion—$10 billion less than the figures reported by the Export Promotion Bureau [EPB] based on National Board of Revenue [NBR] customs data.”
Bangladesh’s Merchandise Export Market Ranking:
- 2022: 49th
- 2023: 55th
The Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) has been considering establishing a central database to consolidate export data from the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and the Bangladesh Bank, ensuring consistent export statistics. During a meeting held on July 8, 2024, senior officials from the EPB, Bangladesh Bank, NBR, and the Statistics and Information Division deliberated on this initiative, according to sources present.
All parties agreed on the creation of a central database, utilizing uniform data from the NBR and exchange rates from the Bangladesh Bank. They also concurred on updating this data daily, as per the sources. The discussion highlighted significant discrepancies between the data reported by the EPB and the Bangladesh Bank, attributing the primary cause to multiple counts of export figures by the NBR. The customs wing of the NBR was identified as the main culprit for these inconsistencies.
Business Leaders Demand Investigative Committee Over Export Data Errors
The issue of multiple counts was due to software problems within the NBR. This problem was rectified immediately after it was brought to our attention last April. Consequently, there are no longer issues from that side, said an NBR official. The discrepancies arose because the central bank and the EPB were not using a common Customs Procedure Code (export code), leading each organization to consider different data.
According to Bangladesh Bank, exports were overstated by over $10 billion for the first nine months (July to March) of FY24, with the actual figure being $31 billion. An EPB official noted that efforts are underway to correct data for the last two fiscal years, though there has been no directive to rectify data from earlier periods.
Amidst this, business leaders and economists are advocating for a high-powered investigative committee to uncover the root causes and identify responsible officials for this significant error. They also expressed concerns about potential damage to Bangladesh’s international statistical credibility, which could impact GDP, per capita income, loan-to-GDP ratio, and other economic indicators.
Data manipulation to present a rosy economic picture is not new in Bangladesh. Experts pointed out discrepancies in non-performing loans, which the government claims are Tk1.84 lakh crore, while the actual figure is Tk4 lakh crore.
Business leaders have long questioned the government’s published data without receiving satisfactory responses. Allegations have surfaced that, during a meeting last year, the central bank governor and other high officials reprimanded business leaders for raising these concerns.
