Kylian Mbappe, France’s iconic football captain, issued a stark warning on Thursday, July 4, 2024, about the nation’s ‘catastrophic’ political climate as it faces the possibility of its first far-right government since World War II. Mbappe, a highly influential figure in France, emphasized the urgent need to vote in the second round of legislative elections following the far-right National Rally’s emergence as the largest party in the first round last weekend.
The National Rally garnered approximately 33% of the nationwide vote on Sunday, July 7, 2024, positioning Marine Le Pen’s party to potentially seize power. As the second round of the legislative elections approaches on Sunday, Mbappe was asked to convey a message to the nation.
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Mbappe Warns of Political Extremes
Speaking in Hamburg, Germany, ahead of France’s European Championship quarterfinal match against Portugal, Mbappe stated, “I think now, more than ever, you need to get out and vote. It is a really urgent juncture. We cannot let our country fall into the hands of these people. It is pressing – we saw the results, it is catastrophic.”
Earlier in Euro 2024, Mbappe had similarly urged action, declaring, “The extremes are knocking on the door of power.” His current sentiments reflect an even greater sense of urgency.
“We really hope this is going to change,” he said about the election results. “Everyone must rally together to vote for the right party.”
“I think now, more than ever, you need to get out and vote.
– Kylian Mbappe
President Emmanuel Macron called this snap election after a setback against the National Rally in last month’s European Parliament elections, betting that the far-right would not replicate its success in a domestic vote.
The plan backfired, leaving Le Pen’s rivals scrambling to prevent the National Rally from securing an outright majority in Sunday’s crucial second round of elections. Amidst the intense political climate, France’s players have frequently addressed the situation during Euro 2024 news conferences.
Analysts Predict Impact of French Election Results on Fiscal Stability
Analysts agree that France faces heightened fiscal risks should Marine Le Pen’s National Rally secure an absolute majority, although current polling suggests this scenario remains improbable.
French voters are set to return to the polls this Sunday for the crucial second round of legislative elections, determining the composition of the 577-seat National Assembly, where an absolute majority of 289 seats is required for effective governance.
In a strategic move aimed at preventing vote fragmentation against the far-right, President Macron’s centrist alliance and the leftist New Popular Front have withdrawn over 200 candidates from the runoff ballots, forming what is known in France as the Republican front.
Current projections, based on recent surveys, indicate that the National Rally and its allies are expected to secure between 190 and 250 seats, falling short of the legislative threshold needed for unimpeded policymaking.
The leftist New Popular Front is projected to win between 140 and 200 seats, while Macron’s centrist group is estimated to secure between 95 and 162 seats.
The outcome of these elections will significantly shape France’s economic policies and market outlook, according to analysts and economists.
A scenario without an absolute majority would severely restrict the implementation of radical policy agendas, potentially averting a fiscal crisis akin to that seen in the UK under Liz Truss, notes ABN Amro’s senior economist Bill Diviney and rates strategist Sonia Renoult.
Following the first round, the French-German 10-year spread narrowed by approximately 5 basis points to 75 basis points, but ABN Amro anticipates a widening trend in the coming quarters.
While the outgoing administration aimed to reduce the deficit to 5.1% of GDP from 5.5% in 2023, with a spending cut of 0.3% of GDP announced in February, a hung parliament could potentially lead to modest fiscal slippage relative to these targets.
A National Rally majority government is poised to swiftly implement a proposed VAT reduction on energy, projected to cost about 0.4% of GDP annually without offsetting revenues, straining public finances. According to Goldman Sachs, France’s public debt could exceed 115% of GDP by 2026 under such a scenario. The approach to the 2027 presidential elections could also weaken government efforts towards significant fiscal consolidation.
Experts outline three potential impacts of these elections on inflation. Firstly, the RN’s proposed 14.5 percentage point VAT cut on energy, which constitutes 10% of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices basket, could temporarily lower French headline inflation by up to 1.4 percentage points. Secondly, the expected neutral to negative impact on aggregate demand in both election outcomes could marginally reduce core inflation. Lastly, despite conflicting with European treaty laws, certain RN policies on competition and immigration might contribute to higher core inflation rates.
Macron’s Election Strategy in Question
The swift-paced electoral period has been marred by reported incidents of violence against candidates and activists, with French authorities reporting over 50 incidents, alongside accusations of racial discrimination.
French voters now face a pivotal choice between the Republican Front’s leftist and centrist alliance on one side, and a far-right party characterized by xenophobia and authoritarian tendencies on the other, in key constituencies.
Analyzing the initial results, Macron’s gamble that voters would reject a radical right-wing government seems to have misfired. The RN led with 33%, followed by the New Popular Front (NFP) at 28%, and Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition at 22%.
The unusually high voter turnout of 66.7% sets the stage for a complex second round, where candidates must secure at least 12.5% of registered constituency votes to advance. Over 300 constituencies face three-way contests, where the potential for split votes threatened to give the RN an outright majority.
Following the strategic withdrawals, only 109 contested races remain, significantly reducing the risk of a clear path to an RN majority.
The RN, formerly the National Front, has made substantial gains beyond its traditional strongholds, nearly doubling its 2022 vote share. With 38 confirmed seats secured in the first round, compared to the NFP’s 32 and Macron’s coalition’s 2, the RN remains a formidable contender with aspirations to shape the legislative landscape.
RN’s Legislative Aspirations in Focus
With 76 seats secured and 501 up for grabs in the second round, Sunday’s election will define France’s political path amid heightened tensions and electoral intrigue. The RN seeks 289 seats for a majority, potentially elevating Jordan Bardella to prime minister and advancing its hardline anti-immigration agenda. Even without a clear mandate, the RN could wield significant influence in parliament.
French politics are polarized over welfare, corporate taxes, and protest management, posing challenges for coalition-building against the far-right or potential voter apathy.
Criticism of Macron’s leadership, including business-friendly policies and the sudden election call during Olympic preparations, has diminished his appeal, especially among disillusioned left-wing voters who perceive him as disconnected from their concerns. Polling suggests that strategic withdrawals may prevent the RN from attaining the majority needed for sweeping reforms such as revoking birthright citizenship and banning public headscarves. Le Pen’s overtures to align with other parties, notably the LR, face resistance within the LR itself, potentially limiting their collective legislative impact.
Even if the far-right RN falls short of power in this election, France faces extended political uncertainty until Macron’s tenure concludes in 2027. Observers foresee RN leader Marine Le Pen preparing for a presidential bid, likely prolonging political deadlock.
