Iran has opened a five-day registration period for individuals aspiring to contest in the presidential election scheduled for June 28. This election aims to elect a new president to succeed the late Ebrahim Raisi, who tragically lost his life in a helicopter crash earlier this month, along with seven other individuals.
The election takes place against the backdrop of Iran grappling with the aftermath of the May 19 crash, as well as escalating tensions between Tehran and Israel, as well as the United States.
While the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85, retains the ultimate authority over all state matters, past presidents have had to navigate varying degrees of interaction or hostility with the West.
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The five-day registration period permits individuals between the ages of 40 and 75, holding at least a master’s degree, to register as potential candidates. Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi has officially opened the registration process. The Interior Ministry, responsible for the country’s police force, oversees Iranian elections without substantial international observation.
The late Ebrahim Raisi and seven members of his entourage, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, tragically lost their lives when their aircraft crashed into a fog-shrouded mountainside in northern Iran.
Following the constitution, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has appointed Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, aged 68, as the caretaker president.
Key names in the Race
According to Iran’s Islamist constitution, one potential candidate for the presidential race is the acting President Mohammad Mokhber, who previously served as Raisi’s first vice president and constitutionally assumed the presidency upon Raisi’s death.
Saeed Jalili, a hardline figure formerly serving as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and currently Khamenei’s representative in the council, is another possible contender. Jalili has advocated for an aggressive approach in advancing Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran claims is peaceful but Western powers fear is aimed at developing nuclear weapons. He has already announced his presidential candidacy.
Despite his desire to run, Ali Larijani is uncertain about receiving approval for his candidacy from the ruling system due to his baggage from the 2021 presidential race, where he was embarrassingly disqualified after serving as the speaker of Iran’s parliament. Larijani is likely the most qualified potential candidate, having held positions such as culture minister, head of state broadcaster IRIB, Supreme National Security Council secretary, and speaker of parliament.
Among other potential contenders is Mehrdad Bazrpash, Iran’s minister of roads and urban development, who previously served in former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration and was a member of a student Basij militia organization. He represents the young generation of fervent supporters of the Islamic Republic that Khamenei has been cultivating.
Parviz Fattah, the head of the state-owned Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (EIKO) and a former official of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and head of several state foundations and enterprises linked to the economy, is another contender. He is under multiple U.S. sanctions designations.
Other potential candidates the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported include former IRGC officer Parviz Fattah and Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani. The outlet also reported that former Interior Minister Sadegh Mahsouli, who served under Ahmadinejad from 2008 to 2009, could run.
Familiar faces like former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and former presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hassan Rouhani, may reportedly enter the race, along with Mohammad-Javad Azari-Jahromi, who served as communications minister under Rouhani from 2017 to 2021.
The final list of candidates will be announced on June 11 by the Guardian Council, a 12-member body of jurists whose members are either appointed or approved by the supreme leader. This body disqualified multiple reformist figures ahead of the 2021 presidential election, which eventually helped Raisi to win with a record-low turnout of 48.8 percent.
Will Raisi’s Death Change Iran’s International Policies?
Raisi and late foreign minister Amirabdollahian had spent almost three years establishing themselves as the faces of Iran on the global stage. Still, their passing will likely not signal a major shift in Iran’s foreign policy.
The Iranian political establishment has a roughly unified view of Iran’s international policies.
Interim President Mohammad Mokhber has been mostly focused on local affairs, from navigating politics to managing efforts to stabilize the perennially sanctioned Iranian economy. But he has also accompanied the president, or led delegations himself, on foreign trips from China and Russia to a tour of Africa.
Interim Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani has been Iran’s chief negotiator in nuclear talks with global powers. It is unclear whether he has the same strong ties with the regional, Iran-aligned ‘axis of resistance’ Amirabdollahian had.
Reza H Akbari, Middle East and North Africa program manager at the Institute for War and Peace told media that the policies will not drastically change. “The National Security Council in Iran, the supreme leader, and when it comes to certain foreign policy files, the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], bureaucratically and institutionally speaking, set Iran’s foreign policy agenda,” Akbari added.
What about Iran’s Regional Networks?
Iran’s burgeoning support for the ‘axis of resistance’, comprising political and military groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen, reflects a strategic policy spanning decades that will persist despite the deaths of Raisi and Amirabdollahian.
The IRGC has consistently grown stronger since reformers and moderates were shunned in the aftermath of the fall of the nuclear deal and the reimposition of sanctions on Iran. The hardline factions have refused to compromise in the wake of the wave of anti-government protests that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody in 2022
Rasi’s successor will be tasked with cultivating an effective public image of collaboration with and support for the members of this axis, while simultaneously maintaining lines of communication with the US and European powers. This is particularly crucial amidst Israel’s war on Gaza, which threatens the region and has pitted Iran and the axis against Israel and its allies.
