After the weeks-long herculean Indian parliamentary election finally drew to a close on 1 June, all major exit polls have predicted a crushing win for NDA coalition led by the ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP).
However, there are some who have come out with more reserved estimates.
As per the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) guidelines, exit polls can only be released after the final voting day. These polls are conducted by various media outlets and agencies with a view to forecast electoral outcome by surveying voters outside polling stations.
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They capture voter preferences, and provide preliminary insights into potential winners.
It is essential to approach exit poll predictions with caution, due to their speculative nature and susceptibility to margin of error. Many exit polls have also proven erratic in recent years, throwing up conflicting results.
They serve as initial estimates only, and add to the anticipation ahead of official results.
The official results will be announced on 4 June by the ECI.
BJP headed for a clear win
A party or coalition needs 272 out of the total 543 seats in the Indian parliament to form a government.
The BJP led-coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), will cross this target – according to exit polls, which forecast it being close to taking about two-thirds of the seats.
These are the various estimates:
An aggregate of six major exit polls predicts 355-380 seats for the NDA. According to them, the INDIA bloc will get between 125-165 seats. On its own, the BJP may win about 327 seats.
Most exit polls have separately predicted 350-360 seats for the NDA; some have projected over 400 seats for the ruling alliance.
However, according to some reserve estimates, 303-305 seats are projected for the BJP, 350-355 seats for the NDA, and 80-85 seats for the INDIA bloc.
When it comes to Congress versus the BJP, the Axis My India exit poll gives the following figures:
Pitching the NDA versus the INDIA coalitions, the ABP C-Voter exit poll gives the following figures:
According to Today’s Chanakya, the projections for the parties and alliances are:
However, DB Live, a digital channel of the Hindi-language Deshbandhu newspaper, has predicted quite the opposite to all major exit polls. It says the INDIA bloc may surpass the majority mark, while the NDA may fall short.
According to the Deshbandhu exit poll:
Exit polls in 2019, 2014
How accurate were the past projections by various exit poll agencies?
First, the actual results.
2014 Lok Sabha elections: NDA won 336 seats, UPA (United Progressive Alliance) got 66. Remaining 141 seats went to other parties.
2019 Lok Sabha elections: NDA won 353 seats, UPA secured 91. Remaining 147 seats went to other parties. Remaining 99 seats went to other parties.
When it comes to exit polls in 2014, the NDA was projected to win anything between 249 to 340 seats by various polling agencies. Among these, the exit poll by Today’s Chanakya was most accurate as it predicted 340 seats for NDA and 70 for UPA.
In 2019, the exit polls predicted that the NDA could win anywhere between 287 to 336 seats, with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) securing between 82 to 132 seats. The closest predictions came from News18-IPSOS which predicted 336 seats for the NDA, and 82 for the UPA.
State results to indicate new sentiments
In terms of regions and states, exit polls indicate that the NDA will hold on to many of its strongholds in the northern and the western parts of India, while gaining significantly in the eastern and southern States.
In West Bengal, where the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has had an unquestionable majority, the NDA could win more seats.
In Odisha, where CM Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is the de facto ruling party, the NDA could again end up winning more seats.
There is a minor setback predicted for the western Maharashtra state, where the NDA won 41 of 48 seats in 2019.
In southern India, the NDA is expected to repeat its huge win in 2019 in Karnataka. But in Telangana, the Congress could put up a big fight.
While the festival of democracy is seeing its ultimate after-party in the name of the exit polls, the final curtain raiser will be on the 4th of June when it will be interesting to see which exit poll came closest to accurately predicting who gets the fancy seat in the Indian parliament for the next five years.
