Key Highlights:
- 78 Tory MPs have resigned including Michael Gove, a key figure who has played a central role in nearly every Conservative government since 2010
- A minister’s resignation typically triggers a new appointment or a minor reshuffle as the Prime Minister selects a replacement
- Under the Ministerial and Other Pensions and Salaries Act 1991, officials who resign from their positions are entitled to a one-time payment of 25% of their annual salary
Tears, anger, and frustration swept through the ranks of Conservative lawmakers as they grappled with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s unexpected decision to call UK elections on July 4, much earlier than anticipated. Those fighting to retain their seats feared that the six weeks left to persuade skeptical voters would be insufficient.
For others planning to step down, it meant an abrupt end to their careers, forcing them to clear out months early. A grassroots Conservative coordinator remarked that morale was at its lowest in five decades. This sense of futility is widespread among Tory MPs, with 78 opting not to run.
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This exodus includes Michael Gove, a key figure who has played a central role in nearly every Conservative government since 2010. Other high-profile figures not seeking re-election include former Prime Minister Theresa May, Northern Ireland Minister Chris Heaton-Harris, ex-Armed Forces Minister James Heappey, and ex-Defense Minister Ben Wallace.
The number of Tories stepping down surpasses the previous post-1945 high of 72 who quit before Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide win for Labor, which is poised for another significant victory. These departures contribute to a growing sense that the Conservatives are on the brink of being ousted after 14 years in power, even though Labor needs a substantial swing to secure a majority.
Sunak’s decision to call an early election has sparked fears of a repeat of the ‘Portillo moments’, referring to the 1997 election when cabinet minister Michael Portillo lost his safe seat in Enfield Southgate in a dramatic defeat.
What Happens after a Minister Resigns?
When a member of the British cabinet resigns, they revert to being a backbencher. They retain their constituency and continue as a local MP, but no longer hold a frontbench position. Consequently, they lose any additional salary entitlements associated with their former cabinet role.
For instance, while the basic salary for an MP is £84,144, a cabinet member can earn an additional £71,090. A minister’s resignation typically triggers a new appointment or a minor reshuffle as the Prime Minister selects a replacement.
In this instance, Nadhim Zahawi has been promoted from Education Secretary to Chancellor, Steve Barclay, the former Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Cabinet Office, has been appointed Health Secretary, and Education Minister Michelle Donelan has become the new Education Secretary.
Why Exiting Politics is the Smart Move for Stressed MPs?
Those who have decided to quit likely found it more challenging than it appears. The ‘sunk cost fallacy’ leads people to stick with their commitments due to the time and effort they’ve already invested, even when current costs outweigh the benefits.
Additionally, it shouldn’t be surprising that some choose to exit. The role of an MP has become increasingly stressful in recent years as British politics has become more tumultuous. Those in high-stress roles are about 10% more likely to want to quit. For cabinet ministers, the prospect of being in opposition means a significant drop in status and income (a £67,505 salary reduction), which can foster feelings of unfairness and drive the decision to leave.
Under the Ministerial and Other Pensions and Salaries Act 1991, officials who resign from their positions are entitled to a one-time payment of 25% of their annual salary for the office they held. This provision applies to ministers, the opposition leader, whips, and the Speaker.
One minister who left Boris Johnson’s government pledged to donate her severance pay to charity. Michelle Donelan, who resigned as Education Secretary after serving less than two days in July 2022, announced she would give her payout of nearly £17,000 to charity.
Tory Exits Cast New Light on Economic Issues
The recent dramatic events leading to the resignation of MPs highlight how politics, and particularly economic policy uncertainty, impacts the UK economy. Since World War II, it has been observed that average annual pay increases during election years are around 3%, compared to just under 2% in non-election years.
Rishi Sunak argues that the economy had turned a corner and was ‘going gangbusters’, emphasizing that ‘the facts are the facts’. By this, he meant that in the first quarter of 2024, the UK experienced the fastest GDP growth in the G7, which was true. He did rightly point out that the anticipated deep recession last year, expected due to the significant energy cost shock, never materialized.
Currently, with inflation decreasing and nominal wage growth at historically high levels, real wage growth is approximately 3%. This level of wage increase has not been sustained since the early 2000s.
For Conservatives seeking optimism, it is worth noting that this growth is stronger than what was seen leading up to the 2015 election, which significantly contributed to David Cameron’s unexpected majority win. It is also a stark contrast to the real wage declines that played a role in Theresa May’s 2017 election difficulties.
As the countdown to July 4th begins, the Conservative Party faces a pivotal moment, grappling with the emotional and political ramifications of an early election call. Amidst fears of repeating historical electoral defeats, there lies a glimmer of economic hope that Rishi Sunak champions. The current surge in GDP growth and real wage increases may yet shift the tide. While the future remains uncertain, one thing is clear: this election will be a defining chapter in the Conservative Party’s storied history, with the potential to reshape the UK’s political landscape for years to come.
