Key Highlights:
- In the 2019 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made considerable gains, securing 18 seats, while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) experienced a decline, winning 22 seats
- With a resounding win in the rural polls, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) seized 28,985 gram panchayat seats in 2023
- According to News18’s Mega Opinion Poll, the BJP-led NDA could secure 25 seats, with the TMC claiming the remaining 17
The ongoing general election in West Bengal spans 7 phases, from April 19 to June 1, and seeks to elect 42 members to the 18th Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament. West Bengal holds the third-highest number of Lok Sabha seats, underscoring its significance in India’s political landscape.
Given the notable shifts in political dynamics since the previous election, this electoral contest has captured widespread attention.
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In the 2019 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made considerable gains, securing 18 seats, while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) experienced a decline, winning 22 seats. The Left, once a dominant force in West Bengal’s political arena, faced a sharp downturn, failing to secure any seats.
However, the BJP’s performance in the 2021 assembly elections slowed its momentum in West Bengal. Meanwhile, the Left, notably the Communist Party of India (CPI Marxist), managed to regain some lost ground in subsequent local elections such as municipal and panchayat polls in 2023.
Focusing on corruption charges against the ruling TMC, the Left-Congress alliance aims to emerge as a significant third force in West Bengal politics. In this election cycle, the Left, in partnership with the Congress under the banner of INDIA, has strategically focused on challenging both the BJP and the TMC.
TMC’s Battle with Corruption Charges
The recent sequence of events, including the arrest of state minister Jyoti Priya Mallick, a series of Enforcement Directorate raids related to an alleged ration distribution scandal, and the cash-for-query accusations against Trinamool MP Mahua Moitra, has severely shaken the party.
JP Mallick, known as ‘Balu’ and entrusted with overseeing North 24 Parganas district, held significant political sway in the region. His arrest weakened Trinamool’s organizational strength, particularly as the Lok Sabha elections approached.
Just as the party grappled with Mallick’s arrest, it became entangled in another controversy. Allegations surfaced that the fiery MP Mahua Moitra had accepted money in exchange for posing questions in parliament. Initially, the party distanced itself from the issue, labeling it as personal to Moitra. However, it later opted to support her.
Over the past year, Trinamool has faced substantial setbacks, beginning with the arrest of former education minister Partha Chatterjee and the subsequent discovery of significant cash in apartments linked to his close associate, Arpita Mukherjee. This was followed by the arrest of party heavyweight Anubrata Mondal and his daughter in connection with an alleged cattle scam, alongside the recovery of property deeds worth crores of rupees.
Moreover, several Trinamool leaders and MLAs, including Manik Bhattacharya and Jibon Krishna Saha, have been apprehended by central agencies on charges of corruption.
Panchayat Election at a Glance
In 2023, the West Bengal panchayat election results were seen as a significant barometer for the Trinamool Congress, BJP, and especially the CPI.
With a resounding win in the rural polls, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) seized 28,985 gram panchayat seats and is in the lead for 1,540 more. Its closest competitor, the BJP, secured 7,764 seats and led in 417. These elections encompassed a total of 63,229 gram panchayat seats.
The Left Front claimed 2,468 seats, with the CPI(M) alone securing 2,409, leading in 260. The Congress won 2,022 seats and led in 139. Other political parties secured 725 seats and led in 23, while independents, including former TMC members, secured 1,656 seats and led in 104.
BJP Makes Inroads in West Bengal’s Bipolar Contest
In 2021, a significant turn of events unfolded as Mamata led the TMC to a sweeping triumph in the state assembly elections, clinching a remarkable 215 seats. Despite the BJP’s fervent campaigning, it only secured 77 seats. This victory marked a stark departure from the BJP’s comparatively modest performance in the 2016 state elections, where they managed a mere 3 seats.
The BJP’s notable surge saw a substantial increase of 74 seats, accompanied by a remarkable rise in their vote share from 10.16% to 38.15%. However, despite these gains, the TMC maintained its dominance, augmenting its seat count by four and widening its lead with a vote share exceeding 48%.
While the TMC has opted to contest independently this time, the Congress Party has directed its focus more towards Mamata Banerjee than Narendra Modi. Consequently, this election is shaping up to be a battle between a resurgent BJP, appealing to consolidated Hindu votes, and its rivals vying for the fragmented minority votes, which are likely to be divided among the INDIA Alliance constituents.
Mamata’s Fight to Hold the Fort or BJP’s Bengal Gateway?
Numerous mainstream news outlets, including CNN-News18, News9Live, and India TV, have released their pre-poll forecasts, all indicating a consensus: the BJP is poised not only to retain the 18 seats it secured in 2019 but also to gain additional seats from the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the state.
| News Outlet | BJP-led NDA Seats | TMC Seats | Congress Seats |
| News18 | 25 | 17 | – |
| News9Live | 26 | 16 | – |
| India TV | 21 | 20 | 1 |
The variance in these predictions lies mainly in the projected number of additional seats the BJP will secure this time around. However, the INDIA Alliance remains deeply divided, failing to reach a unified stance.
Most opinion polls suggest a significant victory for the BJP in West Bengal this election cycle. Some pollsters even anticipate the BJP clinching as many as 26 seats.
According to News18’s Mega Opinion Poll, the BJP-led NDA could secure 25 seats, with the TMC claiming the remaining 17. News9Live projects a similar outcome, with the BJP leading at 26 seats to the TMC’s 16. Conversely, India TV’s survey anticipates a tighter contest, with the BJP securing 21 seats, the TMC 20, and 1 seat going to the Congress Party.
The CPI(M) and Congress are projected to augment their vote shares and capture 3-5 seats, notably in pivotal constituencies such as Murshidabad, Baharampore, Damdam, and Jadavpur.
With most surveys indicating BJP gains at TMC’s expense, this high-stakes bipolar contest will determine if Bengal remains Mamata’s citadel or becomes the BJP’s gateway to the east. As a wildcard, the Left-Congress alliance eyes reclaiming lost ground by positioning itself as a compelling third alternative amidst the bipolar dynamics.
Every seat and vote will be fiercely contested in this marquee clash with national ramifications. However, Mamata’s street-fighter spirit and TMC’s enduring rural strongholds raise the stakes for an epic, no-holds-barred fight to keep the BJP’s gateway to Bengal firmly shut or flung wide open.
