Key Highlights:
- Russia’s Defense Ministry declared plans to conduct exercises featuring tactical nuclear weapons
- Today’s warheads offer adjustable yields, allowing operators to fine-tune their explosive force, ranging from a fraction of a kiloton to 50kt
- According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia possesses approximately 1,558 non-strategic nuclear warheads
With the military blocs’ power reordering over the existing war between Russia – Ukraine and Israel – Hamas, the present nuclear theater context is characterizing more and more.
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Russia’s Defense Ministry declared plans to conduct exercises featuring tactical nuclear weapons in response to what it perceives as “provocative statements and threats” from France, Britain, and the United States regarding Russia’s actions. The ministry’s statement on Monday, May 6, comes amidst escalating tensions with the West over the conflict in Ukraine.
The announcement follows recent comments by British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and French President Emmanuel Macron, as well as the delivery of US long-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) to Ukraine. Russia accuses these nations of deliberately exacerbating the Ukrainian crisis, potentially leading to a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry hopes this move will temper aggressive attitudes in Western capitals.
Macron recently suggested the possibility of deploying troops to Ukraine, while Cameron stated that Ukrainian forces could utilize British long-range weapons to target Russian territory. Cameron justified this stance by citing Russia’s actions within Ukraine.
This marks the first instance of Russia publicly announcing exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons, which encompass air bombs, short-range missile warheads, and artillery munitions designed for battlefield use. These weapons are distinct from the more potent warheads found on intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are intended for city-wide destruction.
The Tactical Weapons Changing Modern Warfare
Unlike the devastating nuclear missiles designed to annihilate entire cities, tactical nuclear weapons intended for battlefield use possess significantly lesser power, with yields as small as about 1 kiloton (kt).
Tactical nuclear warheads emerged in the mid-1950s to provide military leaders with enhanced operational flexibility. As thermonuclear bombs grew more potent during this period, strategists recognized the need for smaller, more precise weapons tailored for specific ‘tactical’ scenarios.
Today’s warheads offer adjustable yields, allowing operators to fine-tune their explosive force, ranging from a fraction of a kiloton to 50kt. To put this into perspective, the bomb dropped on Hiroshima yielded approximately 15kt. A single kiloton is equivalent to the explosive power of 1,000 tons of Trinitrotoluene (TNT).
How Close is Russia to Nuclear Armageddon?
Since Russia commenced its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has continuously cautioned that the support provided by the United States and its European allies to Ukraine, including tens of billions of dollars worth of weaponry, is pushing the world dangerously close to a nuclear showdown. Some of these armaments, Moscow alleges, are being employed against Russian territory.
Russia and the United States stand as the foremost nuclear powers globally, collectively possessing over 10,600 of the world’s 12,100 nuclear warheads. Following them, China holds the third-largest nuclear arsenal, trailed by France and Britain.
According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia possesses approximately 1,558 non-strategic nuclear warheads, although precise figures for such weaponry remain uncertain due to a lack of transparency.
No nation has resorted to the use of nuclear weapons in warfare since the United States deployed atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
Leaked Files Expose Russia’s Tactical Drills
According to leaked Russian military documents spanning from 2008 to 2014, Vladimir Putin’s forces have simulated the use of tactical nuclear weapons in scenarios involving conflict with a major world power, such as China. This cache comprises 29 classified files, which include plans for war simulations and presentations for naval officers detailing the operational guidelines for employing nuclear arms.
Despite their age, experts assert that these documents remain pertinent to current Russian military strategy. Among the outlined conditions are scenarios involving the destruction of 20% of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines, 30% of its nuclear-powered attack submarines, 3 or more cruisers, 3 airfields, or a simultaneous strike on primary and reserve coastal command centers.
These defensive strategies reveal deep-seated suspicions of China within Moscow’s security circles, despite Putin’s efforts to foster an alliance with Beijing, which as early as 2001 involved a pact agreeing not to initiate a nuclear strike. However, even amid growing ties, the training materials indicate that Russia’s eastern military district was actively rehearsing scenarios of a potential Chinese invasion.
These exercises provide a rare glimpse into Russia’s perspective on its nuclear arsenal as a fundamental component of its defense policy, highlighting its readiness to execute a nuclear first strike under certain battlefield circumstances.
Putin’s Belarus Gambit Alarms the West
Last year, Russia relocated some of its tactical nuclear armaments into Belarusian territory, a neighboring ally of Ukraine and NATO members Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania. Belarus’ authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, had long advocated for Moscow to station nuclear weaponry in his nation, which maintains close military bonds with Russia and has served as a base for operations in Ukraine.
Both Putin and Lukashenko asserted that the deployment of nuclear arms to Belarus was a response to perceived Western threats. Putin specifically tied the decision to the UK government’s provision of armor-piercing shells containing depleted uranium to Ukraine.
The exact quantity of weapons moved was undisclosed by either leader, though they confirmed that Soviet-era facilities in Belarus were prepared to house them, with Belarusian personnel trained for their operation. These armaments remain under Russian military jurisdiction.
This deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, sharing a 1,084-kilometer (673-mile) border with Ukraine, enhances Russia’s ability to swiftly and efficiently target potential sites if deemed necessary. Additionally, it extends Russia’s reach to target multiple NATO allies in Eastern and Central Europe.
As tensions surge between Russia and the West over the Ukrainian conflict, the specter of nuclear warfare looms ominously on the horizon. Russia’s bold announcement of tactical nuclear exercises serves as a stark reminder of the precariousness of the global geopolitical landscape.
With rhetoric escalating and maneuvers intensifying, the world teeters on the brink of a perilous precipice. The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus underscores the gravity of the situation, amplifying concerns about the potential for catastrophic escalation. The future hangs in the balance, and the stakes could not be higher.
