India, the world’s largest democracy, is gearing up for its 18th general election, scheduled to be held in April and May 2024. The Lok Sabha election is held on a five-year basis, being the largest political event in India. In this election, Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will face off against the newly formed opposition alliance, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), led by the Congress Party.
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The other key parties contesting in the election are Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), National People’s Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist), and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The election will also reflect the changing dynamics of India’s political landscape, marked by the rise of nationalism, regionalism, and coalition politics.
THE TWO MAIN PLAYERS OF THE ELECTION
India’s political landscape is a complex canvas of diverse ideologies, interests, and identities, shaped by historical legacies, socioeconomic realities, and contemporary challenges. India has a multi-party system, with two major parties, the BJP and the Congress, dominating the national politics, and several regional and smaller parties playing significant roles at the state and local levels.
At every booth, all sorts of facilities will be provided. The aim is to make sure that the experience of voters will be good at the polling station. Those who are above 85 years of age will be given the facility to exercise their voting rights in their home. We want people to take part in electoral roles and then also come to vote, what we say role to poll”
– Terry a O’Neal
Chief Election Commissioner.
THE BJP, founded in 1980, is a right-wing party that espouses Hindu nationalism, cultural conservatism, and economic liberalism. It is the core member of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a coalition of 39 parties that currently rules the country under Modi’s leadership. The BJP has a strong presence in the northern and western states, especially in the Hindi-speaking belt, where it appeals to the large Hindu majority. The BJP also claims to champion the interests of the poor, the farmers, the youth, and the women, through various welfare schemes and development initiatives.
THE CONGRESS, established in 1885, is a centrist party that advocates secularism, social justice, and economic reform. It is the oldest and was, for the majority of Indian political history, the most influential party in India, having led the country’s independence movement and governed the country for most of its post-independence history. It is the main constituent of the INDIA alliance, a coalition of 30 parties that emerged as the main opposition to the BJP in the 2024 election. The Congress has a pan-Indian appeal, with a loyal base among the minorities, the lower castes, and the urban middle class. The Congress also promises to boost the economy, protect the constitution, and restore the democratic institutions that it accuses the BJP of undermining.
INDIA’S COMPLEX POLITICAL FORCES WITH WEB OF ALLIANCES
One of the distinctive features of India’s political scenario is the prevalence and importance of coalition politics, where no single party can secure a majority on its own and has to rely on the support of other parties to form a government. This phenomenon reflects the diversity and fragmentation of the Indian electorate, as well as the rise of regional parties that cater to the specific demands and aspirations of different states and communities.
The BJP and the Congress, despite being the largest and most dominant parties, have to contend with the challenge of forging and maintaining alliances with various regional and smaller parties, some of which have their agendas and ambitions.
The BJP-led NDA, which came to power in 2014 with a historic majority, has seen some of its allies deserting or distancing themselves from the coalition, due to ideological differences, policy disputes, or electoral calculations. For instance, the Shiv Sena, a Hindu nationalist party based in Maharashtra, broke away from the NDA in 2019 and joined hands with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to form a state government. Similarly, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), a regional party from Andhra Pradesh, quit the NDA in 2018 over the issue of granting special status to the state.
The Congress-led INDIA alliance, which was formed in 2023 as a united front against the BJP with 26 parties, has also faced its share of troubles and tensions, owing to the diversity and complexity of its constituents. The alliance comprises parties with different ideologies, backgrounds, and agendas, some of which are rivals or competitors in their respective states.
For example, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), a regional party that rules West Bengal, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M), a leftwing party that has a strong base in the state, are part of the INDIA alliance at the national level, but are bitter opponents at the state level. Similarly, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a party that represents the interests of the Dalits, the lowest caste in the Hindu hierarchy, and the Samajwadi Party (SP), a party that draws support from the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), the intermediate castes, are allies in Uttar Pradesh, the most populous and politically crucial state, but are rivals in other states.
KEY CHALLENGES FOR BJP’S
The opposition alliance
The BJP faces a significant challenge from the united opposition front, known as INDIA, comprising major parties including the Indian National Congress (INC), the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M), and several regional parties. INDIA intends to challenge the BJP on the economy, unemployment, corruption, communal violence, caste, and development. It promises to prevent triangular contests to solidify anti-BJP votes. Telangana, West Bengal, Punjab, and Kerala elections showed the alliance’s strength, with Bihar losses. It hopes to repeat this performance in critical state elections in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Goa, Manipur, and Uttarakhand, affecting BJP’s national goals.
The caste factors
The caste factor, crucial to Indian politics, may undermine the BJP’s electoral hopes. The party, which relies on upper castes and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) (40% and 52%), faces reproach for missing their interests. Examples include the Patidars, Jats, Marathas, and Kapus demanding reservations in education and jobs, opposed or unfulfilled by the BJP. Some OBCs feel sidelined by the party’s upper caste supremacy. Conversely, the opposition alliance seeks support from lower castes like Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs), constituting 16% and 8% of the population, traditionally aligned with parties like INC, BSP, SP, and RJD, advocating for their rights. This alliance seeks a secular, inclusive alternative to the BJP’s Hindu nationalism.
The welfare competition
Welfare competition—which includes the provision of public products and services—impacts the performance of the BJP. The party assert that Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), PM-KISAN, and Ayushman Bharat benefit millions, especially the poor. Highlights include infrastructure, digitization, sanitation, and vaccination. The opposition disputes BJP’s assertions, alleging welfare plan inefficiencies, insufficiency, and mismanagement. Beneficiaries’ exclusion, fund leakage, ignorance, and corruption are all areas of concern. Neglecting economic decline, unemployment, agrarian crises, and inflation is also cited. The opposition proposes Nyuntam Aay Yojana (NYAY), a minimum income guarantee, farmer loan forgiveness, free education and healthcare, and universal basic income for the underprivileged.
THE CHALLENGES FOR INDIA ALLIANCE
While the formation of INDIA has created a buzz in the political arena, the alliance also faces several challenges in its bid to oust the BJP from power. Some of the major challenges are:
Leadership crisis:
The alliance lacks a clear and charismatic leader who can match the popularity and charisma of Modi. The Congress, which is the largest party in the alliance, has been struggling with internal rifts and leadership vacuum.
Ideological differences:
The alliance comprises a diverse range of parties with different ideologies, agendas, and regional interests. Some of the parties, such as the CPI-M and the AAP, have a left-leaning orientation, while others, such as the Shiv Sena and the NCP, have a right-leaning or centrist stance. Some of the parties, such as the TMC and the DMK, have a strong regional identity and autonomy, while others, such as the Congress and the SP, have a national outlook and integration. These differences may create conflicts and contradictions within the alliance on various issues, such as economic policies, social justice, federalism, and secularism.
Electoral arithmetic:
The alliance faces a tough electoral battle against the BJP, which has a strong and loyal voter base, especially among the upper castes, the urban middle class, and the youth. The BJP also has a well-oiled organizational machinery, a huge financial muscle, and a powerful media presence. The alliance, on the other hand, has to rely on the arithmetic of combining the votes of various caste, community, and regional groups, which may not always translate into seats. The alliance also has to contend with the anti-incumbency factor, as many of its constituents are ruling in several states and may face voter fatigue and dissatisfaction.
PRE-ELECTION POLL PROJECTION
The 2024 general election is widely seen as a referendum on Modi’s performance and popularity, as well as a test of the strength and viability of the opposition alliance. The opinion polls and exit polls conducted before and after the voting suggest that Modi and his party are likely to emerge victorious, albeit with a reduced margin compared to 2019.
The India Today ‘Mood of the Nation (MOTN)’ poll also suggests a Modi victory. According to the MOTN poll (last updated February 8th, 2024), Modi-led NDA is projected to win 335 seats. While far shorter than NDA’s stated target of securing 400 seats, it is still a comfortable victory. However, the poll shows that the NDA is likely to see its overall seat share shirk by 18 seats.
Projections for 2024
The exit poll results align with pre-poll surveys, forecasting a comfortable win for Modi and the BJP. Factors contributing to Modi’s advantage include his strong leadership image, handling of national security issues like the February 2019 air strikes against Pakistan, welfare schemes, and effective campaign strategy. Opposition alliance weaknesses include lack of clear leadership, internal conflicts, and inability to counter Modi’s narrative.
MAJOR STATE PROJECTIONS
The BJP is likely to retain its dominance in the upcoming general elections, according to the Mood of the Nation survey.
FACTORS FOR BJP’S PRE-POLL SUCCESS
Modi’s popularity
Modi is considered a self-made and visionary leader, and his charisma and appeal transcend party lines and social differences. Modi uses his oratory and media presence to connect with young, women, and first-time voters, building a dedicated following. Modi’s leadership style is characterized by a strong work ethic, a focus on development, and a commitment to social justice. He has implemented various programs aimed at improving the lives of all Indians, including initiatives to promote education, healthcare, and economic growth.
Moreover, his net approval rating is 76%, according to Morning Consult. His ability to connect with people through his speeches and media presence, as well as his focus on development and social welfare, have contributed to his high approval ratings.
Pro-Hindutva agenda
BJP’s Hindutva ideology and ageda has resonated with majority Hindus, especially in northern and western states. His Citizenship Amendment Act, advocacy for a Ram temple in Ayodhya, and promotion of Hindu identity and values have strengthened his support among this group.
Focus on national security
After the Pulwama assault and Pakistan air strikes, Modi’s focus on national security and foreign affairs has strengthened his image as a strong and decisive leader. His connections with major states and regional allies have established him as a global leader.
VISIONARY STEPS FOR MINORITY COMMUNITIES
Modi’s welfare and development programs have helped millions, especially the impoverished and marginalized. The government’s actions appear to be lowering minority group historical imbalances. Modi’s flagship financial inclusion, sustainable energy, affordable housing, and infrastructure programs are popular.
Increased minority presence in government jobs is notable. Additionally, Muslims’ livelihoods have been improved by the government’s inclusion efforts. This has increased political representation, with Jammu and Kashmir’s first Muslim candidate winning in 2014. To conclude, the 2024 Indian general election is crucial to democracy given the changing nationalism, regionalism, and coalition politics. The election is more than a political struggle; it’s a choice between India’s future aspirations and values, with far-reaching domestic and international ramifications. India, one of the world’s largest and most diversified democracies, will face a test of democratic durability and vitality.
