The Nuts and Bolts of Indian Election

It is the largest voting event in the world. More than 960 million Indians are going to the polls in less than two months, to elect a new government. That is more than 10% of the world’s population. And voters will decide – over the course of several weeks – whether they will re-elect the popular Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his third consecutive term of another five years.

You Can Also Read: Justice vs Delivery: The visible change in Congress’ 2024 manifesto

So what makes the Indian election so unique? Here is a really simple guide to the top things to know about India’s general election in 2024.

WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE ELECTION

In 2019 alone, more than $8 billion were spent, according to a report by Indian think-tank, Centre of Media Studies, making it the world’s most expensive election. In comparison, the US presidential election of 2016, according to the US-based non-profit Centre for Responsive Politics, saw an expenditure of about $6.5 billion.

HIGH VOTER TURNOUT

In terms of voter turnout, public participation has been high since 2014 when the PM Narendra Modi-led BJP first formed its government at the Centre, owing to the Modi wave.

FIRST-PAST-THE-POST VOTING

The 543 seats that are being contested, represent a geographical division of India, each represented by a single member of the parliament (MP). The method of voting is known as “first-past-the-post” voting, which means that voters cast their vote for a single candidate – and the candidate with the most votes wins the election.

In 2019, around 8,049 candidates contested these Lok Sabha seats compared to 8,251 in 2014 and 8,070 in 2009.

In 1996, the record high number of candidates was 13,952.

IT’S ALL ABOUT MODI

Although the number of political parties has been growing rapidly in recent elections, national politics is dominated by none other than PM Modi. Since 2014, Modi’s BJP has seen staggering wins in national and state level elections – largely attributed to Modi’s image as a decisive, hardworking leader. He remains the 2024 general election’s main vote-getter, supported by a disciplined and formidable party machinery, even though the opposition camp continues its campaign of targeting Modi as a polarising leader.

40 days, 470 million women

Voting takes place in several stages, spanning weeks to months. Usually, it goes on for six weeks or nearly 40 days between the months of April and May. Different states vote at different times. Votes are counted towards the end of May and results are expected on the same day.

Also, of the 970 million eligible voters, nearly 470 million are women. Since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, female voters have increased by 9.3% this year, according to data from the EC. In comparison, male voters have grown by 6.9%. Women voters outnumber male voters in 12 states and Union Territories, including Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Kerala, as per the EC.

14% women in parliament

 Despite the increase in female voters, only 78 women currently sit in the Lok Sabha, just about 14% of the total number of MPs. This puts India quite low on the global rankings of female representation, even below neighbours Nepal (33%), Bangladesh (20%) and Pakistan (20%).

According to the Inter-Parliamentary Union, globally, women make up roughly 26% of lawmakers.

185 million first-time voters

 There are 185 million first-time voters in the age group of 18-19 years. It’s a sharp increase of 23.3% from the 2019 election, which had 150 million young voters. In addition, accessibility and inclusivity is being ensured for voters with disabilities. The electoral roll has identified around 88.35 lakh such voters in the database.

Interestingly, the northern state of Uttar Pradesh has the maximum number of voters at 153 million, while the island state of Lakshadweep has over 57,000 registered voters.

Expert Opinion

It is not unemployment or price rise, but nationalism and a growing sense of national pride, which is shaping the narrative in the 2024 general elections of the world’s largest democracy, India, says the country’s top political analyst and psephologist, Sanjay Kumar.

Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Kumar says the Opposition is lagging far behind in building their narratives and the state of West Bengal is on his special watch to witness one of the fiercest battles of the 2024 election.

Excerpts from an exclusive interview with Press Xpress’ Tulika Bhatnagar:

TULIKA: Elections are a great window into the social and political change happening across a country. In the last five Lok Sabha elections, how have you seen this landscape change?

SANJAY: Last five years will be too long to look at. But let me go back to the 2014 Lok Sabha election. At that time, the big narrative was corruption and price rise.

The Congress-led UPA The Congress-led UPA (United Progressive Alliance) was in power. And the BJP projected Narendra Modi as its top prime ministerial candidate. Their big narrative was to combat corruption, inflation, and why BJP managed to build this narrative is because many central government ministers were charged with and embroiled in huge corruption scandals.

Therefore I would sum it up as ‘Change’ being the BJP’s big narrative in 2014.

If we come back to 2019 Lok Sabha elections, then nationalism holds the key. I remember that just before the 2019 election, the Pulwama terror attack and the consequent Balakot air strikes happened. A terror attack was carried out in Pulwama in Jammu and Kashmir by a suicide bomber on 14 February 2019 resulting in the death of 40 CRPF personnel.

In response, India’s war planes pounded a Jaish-eMohammed terror training camp in Pakistan’s Balakot on 26 February 2019. This built up the nationalist and national security sentiments across the country. Also, if I recollect, the BJP’s approach to voters also was – five years is too less to make an impact because the 60 years of Congress governance has impaled the nation. So ‘five more years to Modi’ became the new approach. Teaching Pakistan a lesson of course was a big narrative.

In 2024, nationalism and national pride remain the top narratives. It is like a bouquet of offerings to the voters – including Hindutva, Ram temple, PM Modi’s popularity – but the name of the bouquet being offered is the sense of national pride. BJP will use this bouquet as a tool to mobilise the voters.

If we go back to the previous two elections before the Modi government came into power – then in 2004, we had a very popular prime minister in BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee. ‘India Shining’ was narrative – but it didn’t work for the BJP-led NDA government back then. The Congress was able to puncture it and the BJP couldn’t come back to power in 2004.

“National pride is the big narrative in 2024 elections”

But in 2009, the Congress-led UPA had Manmohan Singh, an economist, as its prime ministerial candidate. The economy was really opening up and the election narrative was all about giving rights to people, right to food, jobs, income – with an economist sitting at the helm of the affairs.

TULIKA: CSDS was the first to begin election studies and surveys more than five decades ago, long before they became the norm in India. What has remained your key approach to ensure authentic studies of voter behaviours and election patterns? What is the dominating voter pattern in 2024 polls, which is different from the narrative that political parties spread?

SANJAY: The CSDS has a long tradition of doing research on Indian elections, politics, and democracy, starting way back in 1963. The idea is to observe the changing patterns of democracy in India – not just hold some survey and collect data. We go to the people and collect information. We are committed to generating knowledge about several issue and themes. In the last 5-7 years, lot of survey agencies have come up, whose main mandate is to correctly forecast the election through exit polls. At CSDS, we try to keep a distance from only making forecast about elections.

Our benchmark is to do an academic research, draw carefully selected randomised samples, and conduct all interviews face to face. Then we try and develop a story around the results. It is going a step further than datamining. In simple terms, if party A or party B managed to win a particular election, then what factors helped in the result, why did people vote or not vote for that party.

It is very true that the political parties’ narratives may or may not reflect completely on the ground – and we get a sense of this through our surveys and research. For example, the BJP narrative is two-fold: PM Modi is very popular and the government is performing extremely well. However, is this narrative really working on the ground? We get a sense of mixed trends. Let’s study both.

First narrative: PM Modi very popular. From data we have collected, this seems to be correct even on the ground. Surveys after surveys have revealed that Modi is a very, very popular leader. Even international surveys have indicated that he is so popular among world leaders. There is no doubt or mismatch on this narrative.

The second narrative: This govt has done excellent work. Here, I am getting a mixed sense. There are both negatives and positives. People are critical and anxious about growing unemployment and price rise. The government seems to have failed or not performed well. Last 3-4 years, we have been asking a lot of people.

However, what beats this sentiment, is that of India emerging strong in the world. India’s image in the world has gone up – and voters are conscious of this fact. People say when they travel now in the world, as Indians, they get more respect. A lot of people accept this and believe in this.

TULIKA: More women seem to be a part of the electoral process now. What kind of women issues are important in the 2024 elections?

SANJAY: That’s true. Participation of Indian women has increased dramatically. However, when we talk about women safety and women empowerment is this an issue anymore? In elections, these issues seem to have taken a downturn. However, an interesting thing I am noticing is that Ram temple and Hindu pride among north Indian women is gaining momentum. Price rise of course remains a key concern. There is also the popularity of Modi – women feel among all the leaders, Modi has worked very hard for the women community. The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (women reservation bill) has been passed by both the houses of the Indian parliament, reserving 33% seats for women. There is also the Ujjawala scheme, the Lakhpati Didi scheme… so he is a leader who is working hard for the women of the country.

“Ram temple and Hindu pride among north Indian women is gaining momentum”

TULIKA: Let’s dig a little deeper into the five key states of Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, and West Bengal. What election trends do you see a month ahead of the polls in terms of BJP versus Congress versus regional parties?

SANJAY: Okay, let’s go to each state one by one.

GUJARAT:

The mood is very clear. It is PM Modi’s home state. There is very pro-Modi and pro-BJP sentiment. Going by the data, BJP has won all 26 seats in the state in the last two elections. And that too, by a big margin. It won’t be preposterous to say they will likely repeat this record history.

UTTAR PRADESH:

This state is very crucial for BJP. Last time, BJP didn’t perform so well here. In 2019, the opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) were allies, and the BJP managed 62 of 80 seats in the state. This year, there is no such opposition alliance. BSP could be spoiler. There is also the pro-Yogi (UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath) and pro-Hindutva mood. The Ram Mandir euphoria is visible on the ground in various districts of UP. BJP is working very hard to keep the tempo up. The Yogi admin is being praised by the people of UP especially with regards to law and order. The state’s crime rate has gone below the national average, according to the NCRB (National Crime Records Databases). People tell me, earlier, when our daughter used to go out and didn’t return before sunset, we would get worried. But that’s not the case now. This combined narrative of good governance and image of Yogi and Modi is working out in the favour of the BJP.

MAHARASHTRA:

It’s a tricky situation for BJP in this state. BJP has been able to form a government with one faction of the regional Shiv Sena party and another of NCP (Nationalist Congress Party). The challenge is turning out to be oversized alliance. Now BJP would like to contest more seats and they are trying to consider half of Shiv Sena and half of NCP but it is difficult to work out a seat sharing arrangement. There is also a sympathy vote for former chief minister, Uddhav Thackeray. I think the big narrative in Maharashtra polls will be parivarvaad (family politics), and corruption. But it is true that here, BJP – if I can use an analogy from cricket – is batting on a pitch that isn’t too favourable.

DELHI:

Delhi is a bit of a cautious ground. In 2014 and 2019, all 7 parliamentary constituencies were won by the BJP. More than that, BJP got more than 50% votes. The opposition Aam Admi party (AAP) and Congress have formed an alliance but the BJP is a little cautious. The challenge could be that the INDIA alliance may get some some positive narrative.

WEST BENGAL:

Oh, it is the MOTHER of all elections in 2024. I am watching it very closely. There will be a fierce contest between BJP and Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC). After the Sandeshkhali incident – in February, women of the Sunderbans island in north Bengal protested against harassment and sexual offences by local TMC – the party is slightly on backfoot. But this state will witness a very keen contest. Minority appeasement will be a key narrative. And if the BJP brings a notification to implement CAA before the polls, then it will make the battle even more fierce. (The objective of the CAA or the Citizenship Amendment Act is to grant Indian citizenship to persecuted minorities like Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Parsis and Christians from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan.) It will being even more polarisation in Bengal and Assam.

TULIKA: How important is Ayodhya Ram Temple in today’s vote?

SANJAY: It is very important in all the north Indian states. It is going to be a big issue in the voting sentiment in the Hindi heartland. In the UP for example, BJP workers on the ground are working hard to keep up this narrative and in fact are planning to send 3-4 lakh visitors from each parliamentary constituency in the state to visit Ram temple.

TULIKA: If a CAA announcement comes before election date is announced, how will that impact voting sentiment?

SANJAY: If that happens, I think the BJP will send a clear signal to the majority segment, that we are serious about the promises we made in the earlier elections. It is going to help BJP again in all the north Indian states.

There will be a tough battle in Assam and west Bengal where Muslims are in a sizeable number. Last time also, when CAA was about to be implemented, these two states had witnessed tough contest. We can expect a sharper polarisation on religious lines in many states – Bihar, UP, west Bengal, Assam.

TULIKA: What are the unique aspects of the 2024 Lok Sabha election?

SANJAY: if you go by electoral arithmetic, in 224 seats, BJP already has more than 50% vote share. So even if all parties come together, they will find it very difficult to defeat the BJP. What the Opposition really needs to work on is a positive narrative. Come up with a good narrative that can mobilise voters enough to wean them away.

Polarisation as well. So the Opposition is complete failing in building up their narratives. The real issues on the ground are different. People are worried about poverty and joblessness – and they feel that The voter feels lost, and they are unable to understand how will a census help the community?

Moreover, being too aggressive on these issues results in counter polarisation as well. So the Opposition is complete failing in building up their narratives. The real issues on the ground are different. People are worried about poverty and joblessness – and they feel that the only leadership option strong enough to resolve these for them – at least for now is Modi.