Key Points
- Erdogan vows to address party’s decline, signaling course correction
- Success in major cities suggests political landscape may be changing
- Imamoglu’s victory in Istanbul fuels speculation of future presidential bid
In a significant turn of events, Turkey’s opposition achieved a remarkable triumph in the country’s local elections on Sunday, dealing a substantial blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party and marking its most significant defeat in over twenty years.
Following the announcement of the results, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, representing the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), addressed a jubilant crowd of supporters, emphasizing the importance of understanding the message conveyed by the nation. The CHP’s victory in Istanbul, with a margin exceeding 1 million votes, underscored a clear mandate from the city’s 16 million residents, sending a powerful signal to both political rivals and the president.
President Erdogan’s conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) has long held dominance at the national level in Turkey. Acknowledging the setback, Erdogan conceded that his party had experienced a decline in support and pledged to address any shortcomings or mistakes, signaling a commitment to course correction.
The outcome of the municipal elections, with the opposition’s sweeping success in key cities like Istanbul, Izmir, and Ankara, has the potential to steer Turkey in a new direction. Notably, Erdogan’s own political trajectory, from Istanbul’s mayor in the 1990s to the presidency, has sparked speculation among analysts that Ekrem Imamoglu’s victory in Istanbul could position him as a leading contender for the Turkish presidency in 2028, signaling a potential shift in the country’s political landscape.
Approximately 61 million eligible voters participated in the elections to elect mayors, council members, and administrative leaders in Turkey’s 81 provinces. The voter turnout reached 76%, as reported by the state-run Anadolu news agency. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) emerged victorious in 36 out of the 81 provinces, securing wins in several of Turkey’s major cities.
Turkish Economy Struggles Amid Inflation and Economic Turmoil
Since 2018, Turkey has faced a challenging economic landscape characterized by rampant inflation, a devalued currency, and strained foreign currency reserves. In February, the country’s annual inflation rate soared to 67%, while the national interest rate reached a staggering 50%, significantly impacting the average Turkish consumer.
Timothy Ash, a senior strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, highlighted the dire implications for the ruling AKP, citing their failure to secure major cities and the potential loss of the national vote to the opposition CHP. This outcome, according to Ash, is primarily driven by the prevailing inflationary pressures.
Echoing this sentiment, Istanbul-based economist Arda Tunca noted that the AKP’s loss of major cities in 2019 stemmed from the repercussions of the 2018 economic crisis, which disproportionately affected urban areas. The current economic challenges, including the looming threats of impoverishment and unemployment, have now permeated the entire country. Tunca emphasized that the recent election marked a significant departure from previous trends, with economic concerns overshadowing identity-related factors for the first time since the AKP came to power in 2002.
On Monday in Istanbul, the Turkish lira was trading at 32.43 against the dollar, hovering near its historic low against the U.S. currency. Over the past year, the beleaguered lira has depreciated by 40% against the dollar and nearly 83% over the last five years, reflecting the ongoing economic struggles faced by Turkey.
A ‘game-changer’ for Turkey?
Hakan Akbas, a senior advisor at the Albright Stonebridge Group, believes so, calling the election results a potential ‘game-changer’ for the country. He suggests that this outcome could inject vitality into Turkey’s democracy and offer new approaches to address economic challenges, urban planning, and public services. However, he cautions that this optimistic outlook hinges on various factors.
Despite expectations of a tough battle for the opposition, composed of the CHP and several other parties with diverse agendas, their sweeping victory took many by surprise. Akbas emphasizes that the key to sustained success lies in the opposition’s ability to unite and present a compelling vision for Turkey’s future.
The election results also hold significance for Turkey’s fiscal policies, potentially paving the way for necessary but unpopular reforms. Opposition supporters view this as a triumph for democracy, countering concerns about Erdogan’s growing authoritarianism and control over the media, which had tilted the political playing field.
However, analysts caution against premature declarations of Erdogan’s decline. While the electoral upset may hinder his plans for constitutional changes, it’s not a definitive shift in the political landscape. Erdogan’s reluctance to share power and his divisive rhetoric are unlikely to diminish. Instead, he may respond forcefully to the opposition’s victory, continuing his pursuit of constitutional amendments to consolidate executive authority.
Candidates in the Istanbul Mayoral Race
Murat Kurum, AKP
Murat Kurum, aged 47, previously served as the Minister of Environment and Urbanization from July 2018 until June of the following year. Following the 2023 general elections, he transitioned to a role as a Member of Parliament representing Istanbul. With a background that includes tenure at the state mass housing agency TOKI and as the general manager of Emlak Konut, a government-operated real estate investment trust, Kurum brings a wealth of experience to his candidacy.
Ekrem Imamoglu, CHP
Ekrem Imamoglu, aged 52 and hailing from Trabzon, a city on the Black Sea coast, rose from a district mayor to become the Mayor of Istanbul. Notably, he secured victory in the 2019 Istanbul election with the support of a coalition comprising the CHP, the nationalist IYI Party, and the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (DEM). This election cycle sees IYI and DEM fielding their own candidates, with Imamoglu enjoying significant backing from Kurdish voters, transcending traditional party lines.
Mayoral Race in Ankara
In Ankara, the incumbent Mayor Mansur Yavas, a former district mayor, is currently leading comfortably in polls against Turgut Altinok, also a former district mayor representing the AKP. The race in Ankara showcases a competitive dynamic between the two candidates.
Electoral Dynamics in Other Provinces
Turkish voters across the country will participate in elections for mayors, district mayors, district councils, and local administrators in their neighborhoods, casting a total of four votes. Noteworthy competitive cities beyond Istanbul and Ankara include Antalya, Bursa, and Adana, all under CHP administration. The electoral landscape in these provinces promises to be engaging and pivotal in shaping local governance.
