Key Points:
- ISIS Sleeper cells have hit targets in Russia, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey Using Afghanistan as a base
- Pakistan blames the Afghan Taliban for its inaction against the group
Following a fatal attack on a music event in Moscow, ISIS has taken responsibility, releasing disturbing videos showing its assailants executing what is considered Russia’s most devastating terrorist attack in years. Four individuals from Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic, have been implicated by Russian authorities as the orchestrators of the attack, which resulted in at least 137 fatalities and over 100 injuries.
The accused, who are facing charges of terrorism and potential life sentences, have been held in pre-trial custody until May 22 after their court appearance in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin attributed the attack to ‘radical Islamists’, and controversially suggested, without evidence, that an escape route to Ukraine had been arranged for the attackers.
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US officials have linked the attack to ISIS-K, a central Asian affiliate known for its brutality and feared as one of the region’s most ruthless terrorist organizations. Since November, the US has been receiving consistent intelligence that ISIS-K was planning an attack in Russia, and these warnings were relayed to Moscow.
This attack serves as evidence of ISIS’s resurgence. After being driven out of its strongholds in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan in 2019, and with its leaders in hiding to evade assassination attempts by American and Taliban forces, ISIS has reactivated its network of terrorist cells, staffed by militants from across Eurasia.
Investigations into deadly ISIS attacks in Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and Turkey over the past three months have revealed that all involved ISIS militants from Central Asia, particularly Tajiks.
Who are ISIS-K?
ISIS-K, established in 2015, has been operational in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. It is an offshoot of ISIS, the terrorist organization that originated in Syria and Iraq and, at its height, dominated a vast expanse of land.
Five years after the collapse of ISIS’s self-declared caliphate in Iraq and Syria, the organization has transformed into a global terror network with cells dispersed across Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia.
The relationship between ISIS-K and its supposed parent organization remains somewhat ambiguous. While the affiliates share a common ideology and tactics, the extent of their relationship, such as the chain of command and control, has not been definitively determined.
By 2018, ISIS-K had become the world’s fourth most lethal terrorist group, as per the Institute for Economics and Peace, which tracks global terrorism.
The Taliban’s seizure of power in Afghanistan in August 2021, coupled with the withdrawal of US forces, brought ISIS-K into the international limelight, particularly after the group executed a fatal bombing outside Kabul airport that resulted in the deaths of 13 US military personnel and 170 Afghans.
This act was ISIS-K’s most globally significant operation after the recent attack in Russia. In 2021, the United Nations estimated that the group has a core force of up to 2,200 fighters based in the provinces of Kunar and Nangarhar in Afghanistan.
Sleeper Cell
The ISIS-K, despite its relatively recent inception, has rapidly gained notoriety for its brutal tactics of the use of sleeper cells. These are covert, loosely organized groups of terrorists who blend into society, lying dormant until they receive orders to carry out attacks. The coordination between these cells and the central command often varies, making them unpredictable and challenging to counter.
The recent rise in ‘urban terrorism’ serves as an alarm for security agencies. Major cities in Pakistan such as Karachi, Peshawar, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Quetta, Faisalabad, and others have been gripped by the menace of these sleeper cells.
The recruitment, motivation, and training of potential fighters have been sourced from the EU (Germany, Belgium, Spain, France, Poland, Italy, etc.). India has also surfaced as a prime recruitment destination for ISIS-k.
Globally, sleeper cells loyal to ISIS could pose the most significant threat following an ISIS defeat in Iraq and Syria. They have already demonstrated the reality of this threat by executing unexpected and shocking attacks.
ISIS-K has found it more convenient to use Turkey as a financial and transit hub, given the increasing number of Afghan refugees entering the country via Iran over the past three years. ISIS-K’s sleeper cells have demonstrated their deadly effectiveness through a series of shocking attacks worldwide. The group’s reach has extended far beyond its base in Afghanistan, with attacks being carried out in countries like Russia, Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey.
A Broader Global Threat?
The attack on Kabul airport has heightened global apprehensions that ISIS-K could emerge as a significant threat regionally and beyond. In March 2023, the leader of the US Central Command informed legislators that ISIS-K was growing more audacious, with Europe or Asia being more probable targets for terrorist attacks originating from Afghanistan than the US.
In a 2023 threat evaluation report by US intelligence agencies, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence stated that ISIS-K “almost certainly maintains the intention to carry out operations in the West and will persist in efforts to attack outside Afghanistan.”
Earlier this year, a report by the UN Security Council cautioned that ISIS-K was planning or executing ‘operational plots’ in Europe. Last year, seven individuals associated with the group were apprehended in Germany while planning ‘high-impact terrorist attacks’, including procuring weapons and identifying potential targets.
This is not the first instance of ISIS targeting a concert venue. In November 2015, ISIS gunmen attacked the Bataclan Theater in Paris, part of a broader assault that claimed at least 130 lives. In May 2017, the group took responsibility for a suicide bombing at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester Arena, England, which resulted in 22 fatalities. ISIS has also inspired terrorists in the US, including the shooter who killed 49 people at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida, in 2016, marking the deadliest terrorist attack in the US since 9/11.
Earlier this month, the US government had information about a planned terrorist attack in Moscow, potentially targeting large gatherings, including concerts. This led the State Department to issue a public advisory to Americans in Russia, and this information was also shared with Russian authorities.
The intelligence that Washington had been receiving since November was ‘fairly specific’, and the US intelligence community warned Russia, but it’s unclear if this is directly linked to the March 7 warning by the US embassy in Moscow.
Countering the diffuse ISIS sleeper cell model is an immense challenge for intelligence agencies. Financially self-sufficient cells with opaque leadership allow terrorists to quietly blend into societies until activated, making them extremely difficult to detect and disrupt proactively.
Ultimately, the world cannot be complacent. ISIS has evolved into a more covert threat but still retains the ability to inflict mass violence against civilian soft targets as seen recently. Intensified international counterterrorism cooperation using innovative tactics will be critical to degrade ISIS and affiliates like ISIS-K through targeted strikes, disrupting financing, and denying territorial safe-havens.
