As India gearing up for the elections scheduled from April 19 to June 01, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third consecutive five-year term. Despite pockets of fragmented opposition, many experts and opinion polls predict that Modi, one of the globe’s most popular elected leaders, will emerge victorious with a bigger mandate.
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India’s economic growth is on a rapid trajectory, bolstering its global standing. Modi’s personal wide acceptance as a political strongman along with his visionary mantra ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas’ which means ‘Together with all, Development for all, Trust of all’ and populist Hindu nationalism rhetoric are winning supporters. BJP is fresh off a resounding victory in state-level elections late last year.
According to News18’s Mega Opinion Poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA is expected to win 411 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, with the BJP securing around 300 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha 2024 elections. Other NDA constituents, including JD(U) and TDP, will clinch 61 seats. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party BJP have been ruling India since 2014 why the party still draw enormous appeal to voters and enjoys overwhelming popularity?
Modi Factor
Despite being Prime Minister for 10 years, Narendra Modi’s popularity remains sky high, and he still commands the highest approval ratings among the world leaders.
The PM continues to be the biggest ‘vote ka saudagar’ for the BJP and NDA block. As the BJP’s campaigner-in-chief, Modi possesses a unique ability to motivate and energize party workers and voters alike, injecting new slogans and ideas into every election cycle.
PM Modi has successfully managed to portray his name as the slogan for BJP. From ‘Achhe din aane waale hain” (Good days are coming) to “PM Modi ki guarantee” shows the confidence of the party in ability of PM Modi to win elections for it. PM Modi has become both the messenger and message for the BJP and NDA. The entire spectrum of opposition leaders does not have a ‘face’ to match the incumbent Prime Minister. Periodic surveys reinforce this sentiment, indicating that most people desire Modi’s continued leadership as Prime Minister.
Courting Women and Urban, Middle-Class Voters
Narendra Modi and his party, the BJP, are actively courting the burgeoning urban middle class. This demographic is less concerned with cultural issues and more focused on good governance and India’s global standing.
In the past two elections, the BJP successfully garnered their support by promising to combat corruption, enhance the business environment, invest in infrastructure, and restore national pride. The party aims to continue this trajectory, aiming to retain this crucial voter bloc—especially in the absence of compelling alternatives.
Simultaneously, the BJP remains committed to securing the backing of rural communities and women, who may lean towards left-wing parties or abstain from voting altogether.
To appeal to these groups, the Modi government has implemented several key initiatives. It has significantly increased funding for a rural income guarantee scheme and introduced programs such as providing midday meals to schoolchildren.
Additionally, the government has facilitated the opening of bank accounts for millions, including women. This move empowers them to bypass corrupt officials and uncooperative husbands when accessing welfare payments.
Furthermore, the administration has prioritized rural infrastructure, ensuring millions of homes have access to toilets and cooking gas. These efforts are aimed at enhancing women’s safety and well-being.
The results have been promising, with more rural poor and women casting their votes for the BJP in recent elections.
Looking ahead, the party is keen on solidifying its support among women. It has successfully shepherded a new gender quota bill through parliament, which mandates that one-third of Lok Sabha seats be reserved for women starting in 2029.
I.N.D.I.A Bloc’s Poor Show
The united opposition bloc, which was launched with great fanfare in July last year, now appears to have lost momentum. So much so that it seems to have dwindled to the level of the UPA from yesteryears. Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar, who once aspired to be the convenor of I.N.D.I.A, has returned to the NDA. Meanwhile, West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee has adopted the ‘ekla chalo re’ policy, signaling her intent to go it alone. Additionally, Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav has presented a take-it-or-leave-it offer of 11 seats to the Congress in Uttar Pradesh. In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress will be contesting separately.
The formation of the I.N.D.I.A bloc generated hope for a strong opposition, but over time, the fragmented opposition parties have inadvertently aiding Modi’s re-election bid. The principal opposition party, the Congress, now appears ill-equipped to defeat the BJP—even some of its staunch supporters share this view. The setback it faced in the Hindi heartland has demoralized its cadre and second-tier leadership. During his address in Parliament, PM Modi criticized dynasty politics and suggested that the Congress’s repeated attempts to ‘launch the same product’ (read: Rahul Gandhi) are pushing its shop toward closure.
Tactical missteps, such as boycotting the Pran Pratishtha ceremony of the Ram Mandir, taking a hard stance in seat-sharing negotiations, and launching the second leg of the Bharat Jodo Yatra at a time when the party should have been focused on election preparations, have marginalized the Congress for the 2024 elections.
Banking on Economic Delivery
Prime Minister Modi firmly believes that his administration has made significant strides on the economic front. India now stands as the fifth-largest economy in the world and his ‘Modi guarantee’ aims to propel it to the third position by 2044. To underscore this achievement, PM Modi frequently invokes the slogan ’10 years vs. 70 years’, emphasizing that his government has outperformed not only the ten-year tenure of Manmohan Singh but also the cumulative record of all previous prime ministers.
However, despite these claims, there remain pressing issues such as economic disparity, inflation, unemployment, and agricultural distress. PM Modi hopes that voters will perceive him as a more effective leader in addressing these challenges compared to his political rivals. The opposition, unfortunately, has yet to present concrete solutions; their focus has largely been on highlighting existing problems.
While Modi champions aspirational politics, the opposition’s discourse centers around a caste census—a topic that some in the middle-class fear could hinder progress rather than propel the nation forward.
A Large Pool of Loyal Labharthis
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken 25 crore people out of the multidimensional poverty. It has constructed four crore rural houses and implementing various schemes aimed at benefiting youth, women, farmers, and the economically disadvantaged. As a result, a substantial group of beneficiaries, known as ‘labharthis’, has emerged, and they now form a loyal voting base for the BJP.
Estimates suggest that approximately 25 crore individuals fall into this category of labharthis. Interestingly, these voters have shifted their allegiance from traditional caste-based voting patterns to a more socio-economic class-based approach. Their voting decisions are influenced by emotions—both hope (aasha) and anger (aakrosh). Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s welfare schemes have instilled hope among these beneficiaries, ensuring continued political support from four key cohorts: the poor (gareeb), farmers (kisan), youth (yuva), and women (mahila).
Continued Support of OBCs
OBCs (Other Backward Classes) constitute a significant portion of India’s population, estimated to be between 45% and 50%. PM Modi, himself an OBC leader, has strategically positioned the BJP as the preferred party for lower and most backward OBCs in the Hindi heartland. Over the past decade, OBC support for the BJP has doubled—from 23% in 2009 to 44% in 2019, according to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.
Additionally, the BJP has effectively countered the opposition’s caste census argument. By honoring leaders like Karpoori Thakur with the Bharat Ratna and welcoming Nitish Kumar back into the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the BJP has deflated Rahul Gandhi’s slogan of ‘jitni abadi utna haq’ (rights proportional to population). This strategic maneuvering has solidified the BJP’s position among OBC voters.
Ram Temple
Narendra Modi led the consecration of a grand temple to the Hindu god-king Ram on a site believed to be his birthplace, in a historic event for the Hindu majority of India. Before the elections, the event delivers on a campaign promise his political party made more than three decades ago. The Hindu outreach, BJP hopes, will overwhelm opposition’s caste census plays. Mandir also adds to Modi’s personal credibility.
The 400 Seat Calculus
Prime Minister Modi is forthright in his pursuit of a stronger mandate to initiate a new wave of bold economic reforms. During his two terms, he encountered a divided political landscape that hindered major initiatives, leading to compromises despite the success of his targeted welfare programs.
Modi is convinced that with greater legislative power, he can implement significant reforms in sectors such as agriculture, land, labor, fertilizer subsidies, and electricity generation, propelling India towards robust economic growth.
Aiming for a commanding mandate, Modi has been strategically visiting southern regions, traditionally resistant to his party, particularly Tamil Nadu and Kerala. He aims to consolidate gains in Telangana and maintain a stronghold in Karnataka. With 129 seats at stake in the south, Modi’s goal is to disrupt the dominance of regional Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu and outmaneuver the demographic stronghold of Congress and the Left in Kerala by appealing to Christian and female voters.
In certain states, Modi is forging alliances to sway the electorate. In Maharashtra, home to a significant number of Lok Sabha seats, the BJP benefits from the opposition’s disarray.
Modi’s influence is strongest in the northern states. The inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya has sparked a fervent wave of devotion, potentially translating into substantial support for Modi’s leadership. The BJP is determined to secure a maximum number of seats in Uttar Pradesh.
The question remains: Is the 2024 election centered around Modi’s ambition to cross the ‘400-seat’ threshold for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)? It’s a matter of debate!
The 400-seat goal set by Modi serves as a benchmark for the BJP cadre, deemed attainable. Crucially, from Modi’s viewpoint, the alliance must capture 50 percent of the popular vote to counteract criticism from those who have challenged the legitimacy of the 2014 and 2019 mandates.
Do or die for Gandhi family?
For years, the Congress party’s destiny has been intertwined with the charisma of the Nehru-Gandhi family. However, recent developments suggest a gradual separation.
In their traditional strongholds, the Gandhis are facing setbacks. Rahul Gandhi has relinquished Amethi, while Sonia Gandhi now resides in the Upper House. The question lingers: Will Priyanka Gandhi contest from Rae Bareli? If the Gandhis can’t secure electoral victories for themselves, can they still effectively lead the party? Many are pondering this dilemma.
Their leadership has endured due to the absence of equally charismatic figures. Supporters believe in the “Gandhi glue” that binds the party together.
Yet, in politics and society, the “TINA” (There Is No Alternative) factor has an expiration date. The argument of “If not Gandhis, then who?” may soon lose its sway. If the party fails to maintain its preeminent position among opposition ranks, a bleak future awaits
