Key highlights:
- According to the latest YouGov poll on voting intentions, the Conservatives are currently at 19%, down by 1 point from March 12-13.
- 32% express intent to vote Conservative, with 26% favoring Reform UK and 23% opting for Labor.
- The only party to experience an uptick is Reform UK, reaching 12% in the polls.
Rishi Sunak has initiated the Conservatives’ local election drive in Derbyshire, marking the start of what is anticipated to be a challenging period for the party in the run-up to the General Election. On May 2nd, voters across various regions of England will participate in elections to select councilors, mayors, and Police and Crime Commissioners in England and Wales.
The last time many of these positions were contested was in 2021, during which the Conservatives made significant gains, largely attributed to the success of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.
According to the latest YouGov poll on voting intentions, the Conservatives are currently at 19%, down by 1 point from March 12-13, which matches the party’s lowest share following Liz Truss’s mini-Budget. These instances mark the joint-lowest vote shares for the Conservatives in this Parliament.
Simultaneously, the poll this week indicates that Reform UK, the Tories’ right-wing rivals, have achieved their highest-ever vote share at 15%, up by 1 point. Labor maintains its lead in the polls with 44% of the vote, unchanged from the previous week, while the Liberal Democrats stand at 19% with no change, and the Greens have risen to 8%, up by 1 point.
Even among the traditionally supportive older demographic, only 32% express intent to vote Conservative, with 26% favoring Reform UK and 23% opting for Labor.
The decline of conservatives can be attributed to various factors, such as economic challenges and inflammatory remarks regarding Islam and race.
What Does the Poll say about Labor and Conservative?
The Conservatives are experiencing their lowest rating since October 2022, coinciding with Rishi Sunak taking over from Liz Truss as prime minister. Truss’s tenure saw a sharp decline in Conservative poll numbers and a surge in support for Labor, attributed to a controversial ‘mini-budget’ featuring significant tax cuts without corresponding spending reductions.
Hopes for a rebound following the recent Budget were dashed by Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform UK and controversies surrounding a major donor’s alleged remarks, dampening the mood among Tory MPs.
While Tory support has gradually waned in recent months, Labor’s standing remains relatively stable. The mayoral races in London and Greater Manchester are posing challenges for the Conservative Party. Susan Hall, the Conservative candidate for London Mayor, trails behind the Labor incumbent Sadiq Khan by 24 points, as revealed by recent Savanta polling. The data suggests that 51% of respondents plan to support Khan, while Hall has garnered 27% of the intended vote.
The only party to experience an uptick is Reform UK, reaching 12% in the polls – their highest level since rebranding from the Brexit Party after the previous general election.
In Manchester, the former Conservative candidate for mayor defected to the Reform Party. Dan Evans will now represent Richard Tice’s party in the mayoral election and is scheduled to deliver a campaign speech over the weekend.
The defection marked another challenging week for Sunak. His Rwanda legislation was postponed beyond the Easter break, rumors of discontent among his backbenchers surfaced, and the latest YouGov polls indicate Sunak’s lead may be as slim as 4 points.
Majority of Britons Believe Country Heading in Wrong Direction
At the same time, 83% of Britons express dissatisfaction with the Government’s management of the country. Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction score has declined to -54 from -46 in January 2024, while Keir Starmer’s stands at -26.
The polls also indicate that 20% of Britons hold a favorable view of the Conservatives (with 54% unfavorable), whereas 37% view the Labor party favorably, compared to 38% unfavorable.
65% of Britons perceive that Great Britain is headed in the wrong direction, while only 15% believe it’s on the right track. This marks the ninth consecutive month where approximately 6 in 10 individuals have expressed dissatisfaction with the country’s direction. This is attributed to the Brexit matter. 52% believe Brexit has adversely affected the country, while 22% perceive a positive impact, with another 22% stating it has made no difference.
Many Believe the UK Will See an Economic Storm
52% anticipate a downturn in the economy over the next year, marking a 2-percentage point increase since January 2024. Conversely, 24% foresee an improvement, while 19% predict stability, reflecting a 2-percentage point decline since January. 5% express uncertainty, resulting -28.
In November 2022, shortly after Rishi Sunak assumed office, this index stood at -56. The economy (34%) and inflation (26%) rank as the primary concerns among Britons, with crime falling out of the top 10 list.
With Conservatives facing dwindling support and Labor maintaining its lead, the upcoming local elections are poised to be a battleground for ideological shifts. The recent YouGov poll paints a grim picture for the Tories, with their lowest rating since October 2022.
Meanwhile, Reform UK’s surge stresses the electorate’s discontent with the status quo. Amidst these political tremors, the looming specter of economic uncertainty adds another layer of complexity. With a majority of Britons anticipating an economic downturn and concerns over inflation mounting, one can’t help but wonder: How will these economic forecasts shape the electoral landscape, and what ramifications will they have for the future of governance in the UK?
